TRG: Over/Under - NFC North

We continue with the NFC North for my over/under predictions. This division looks to be among the tougher divisions in the NFL, with the reigning Super Bowl champs poised for another strong season, the always under-appreciated Chicago Bears, the young, up-and-coming Lions, and the now McNabb-led Vikings. This division is going to beat itself up. Here's my take on how the regular season records will shape up.


Chicago Bears OVER 8.5 (3 units)

An improved O-line should help Cutler this year.

How quickly we forget that the Bears actually won the NFC North last year and finished 11-5. While the popularity of Detroit has siphoned much of Chicago's support for this season, I'm not giving up on the Bears so quickly. They smartly invested a first-round pick into their offensive line, which literally cannot be any worse than last season, in which they allowed the most sacks in the league. The defense is still solid (ranked 9th in 2010), anchored by Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher. Cutler is entering his second year in Mike Martz' offense, and historically QBs have improved with time in his offenses. Non-division opponents include the NFC South and AFC West, and while that's not exactly easy, it does offer cupcake matchups like Oakland, Denver, and Carolina. I still have the Bears ranked above Detroit and Minnesota in the North, so I like their odds of being able to have another winning season, even if they don't win the division again.


Detroit UNDER 7.5 (4 units)
I get the feeling that this pick, out of all of them, is going to be the one to hang my hat on by the end of the year. Detroit has been surrounded by a Daniel Snyder Redskins-eqsue hype this off-season, but that doesn't translate to on field performance. The defense is young and far from dominant, and the secondary will still probably function about as well as a sieve holding water. And really, that's my main concern with the Lions. For all of the hype, they did virtually nothing to improve their secondary, and I'm not a big fan of that, particularly when they face Aaron Rodgers twice a year. While they managed 6 wins last year (and I'd like to point out that I hit them on the over last season), they are facing a much tougher schedule this year. Matt Stafford has teased everyone with flashes of potential brilliance, but he needs to prove he can remain healthy and effective for a full season. I'm not buying what Detroit's selling this year, and am taking the under.


Green Bay Packers UNDER 11.5 (2 units)

Can Green Bay do it again this year?

I fell in love with the Packers last preseason, only to have them ruin me throughout the regular season with surprising losses. They obviously put it together in the playoffs on their way to winning a Super Bowl, but they did finish the regular season 10-6. I'm mainly concerned with them making this very high over for two reasons:
1) the entire division has improved to some degree this off-season
2) the schedule is tougher
They can only lose 4 games to make this over, and maybe I'm jaded by last season's performance, but I think they're going to drop 5 or 6 games this year. They'll still be a great team, and very well could be in position to repeat as champions, but it's hard to pick anyone to get to the 12-win mark in today's NFL. Only 4 teams league-wide managed 12 wins or better in 2010.


Minnesota Vikings UNDER 7.0 (1 unit)
The Vikings may have improved their QB situation (albeit marginally), but they are getting old at key positions (CB, DT, QB). The offensive line isn't nearly as dominant as it was a few seasons ago, and I'm really getting the impression that this is a rebuilding year for the Vikes. Losing Sidney Rice was huge and the offense will struggle without him, much like last season. The defense and AP may well keep them in games, but I don't see them improving on last year's 6-10 mark. I don't think McNabb is capable of adding much to their one-dimensional offense. With the Lions likely being a stronger team than they were last season, Minnesota may very well finish at the bottom of the NFC North.


TRG
@elaurinovics