Saturday, September 10, 2011

TRG: Over/Under - NFC East

We're one day away from the first Sunday of the season and I've got two more divisions to cover before games start, so lets get down to business!

Dallas Cowboys OVER 9 (4 units)
The NFC East is still one of the toughest in the league, but all of the major injuries that the NY Giants have sustained make me feel comfortable in picking Dallas to finish in the upper-half of the division standings. As I mentioned in my Pick 6 column, the Cowboys scored over 29 points a game in their last 8 games, and that was without Tony Romo. With his return, Austin, Witten, and break-out candidates Dez Bryant and Felix Jones make for an offense that's easy to like. The defense struggled last year, but new coordinator Rob Ryan and recently signed free agent Abram Elam should hopefully patch things up a bit, at least. Non-division opponents include the NFC West and AFC East, so Dallas will have plenty of opportunities to win outside of division play. Take the over.


Eli Manning and the offense won't get much help from their defense.
New York Giants UNDER 9.5 (2 units)
I'm deeply concerned about all of the injuries to the defense. The secondary is now looking a bit shaky and the front seven a little less imposing. While a few players (Goff, Osi, and Amukamara) may return during the season, New York may have a rough start this year and find themselves looking up at Dallas and Philly. I don't think the NFC East will have three teams get to 10 wins, and that makes the Giants the odd-man out. I can't really think of much more than add to that. The offense has a very good ground game and solid passing game, but I think the defense can't afford all of these injuries given there's so much offensive talent in the division.


Philadelphia Eagles OVER 10.5 (3 units)
No, I don't think they're the Dream Team. They're not even my favorite NFC Super Bowl pick. However, the Eagles were 10-6 last year, and you'd be hard pressed to convince me that they became any worse this off-season. They've added players to address virtually every position of need. I'm not concerned about struggles in the preseason... In addition to not giving the preseason much weight, I'm sure a team with so many new faces has some issues that need to be worked out in August games and practices. I have full confidence that the Eagles will be ready come week 1 and picked them to cover. I like them to win the NFC East, and with a favorable non division schedule, I think they make the over easily if they win the division.


Shanahan's reputation is on the line this year.
Washington Redskins UNDER 6.0 (1 unit)
The Redskins offense doesn't inspire much and they lost top cover-corner Carlos Rogers to the 49ers. DeAngelo Hall can trumpet his interception total all he wants, but I think he'll be exposed this season. He's a gambler that gets burned nearly as often as he makes a pick. He's not a #1 corner. Defense has been one of the few bright spots for Washington these past few seasons, but that will change this season. I'm not confident in Beck, Grossman, or Shanahan, at this point. I'm staying away from Washington entirely, but I'll put my last unit on the under.

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