The Rambling Gambler: Pick 6 - Week 1

Welcome back to the weekly picks column! With last season behind me, this year can only get better! Unfortunately however, the opener was a bit underwhelming, as a major power outage knocked out the majority of electricity in the southwest US, and I was with out power for the entire evening. My cell phone network was out of service as well somehow, and as a result, I didn't even see the score until Friday morning. Sounds like it was a fantastic game, though.
If you're familiar with this column, the format is nearly the same as last season, though I'm going to add over/unders to the mix this year, occasionally. I'll also be making better picks this year (hopefully).
If you're not familiar with this column, it's pretty straightforward: each week I pick a combination of 6 teams (against the spread) and point totals, give you my picks, and track the results. All of last year's columns are in the archives of the blog, if you need an example.
Anyway, lets get the 2011 season under way! Good luck everyone, and here are the picks (home team in CAPS):

With Manning out, Mario and the D should dominate.

 HOUSTON -8.5 over Indianapolis


I'm on the "Colts will be terrible" bandwagon. 100%. I already liked Houston to win the division with the Colts having a healthy Peyton Manning, but this is a no-brainer now. Kerry Collins has been with the team for only a couple of weeks, and he isn't going to come close to replicating Manning's success in this offense. This team was built around Manning. Last season, the Colts finished with the 29th ranked rushing offense, 25th ranked rushing defense, and 13th ranked passing defense. Passing offense? Ranked #1. It's pretty obvious how the 2010 Colts won football games. 288.1 passing yards per game is a big number. That's not going to happen with Kerry Collins under center. With no substantial improvement to the rest of the offense or the defense, Indy is an absolute mess. Houston won and covered at home against Indy last year, and there's no reason they won't do it again this year.


Tennessee +1.5 over JACKSONVILLE


This line is the big mover of the week, as it was at 3.5 Monday. The Jaguars seem completely out-matched to me. Dumping Garrard this week isn't going to improve the offense any and the defense is still a total liability.  The Titans at least have a somewhat competent QB in Matt Hasselbeck. With Chris Johnson's contract extended and holdout ended, the offense should be effective, though the weak offensive line may cause problems from time to time. Tennessee's defense was well below average last season (26th overall), and while  not a whole has changed, it should be enough to contain the Jags. The Jacksonville passing game simply doesn't have enough weapons. Mike Thomas is far from a proven #1 receiver, and there's no proven talent whatsoever behind him. MJD will be staring at 8-man fronts all day long and the Jags will struggle to prove they can be more than a one-dimensional offense. The Titans will win this game easily.


KANSAS CITY/Buffalo UNDER 39.5

Buffalo can only hope to contain Jamaal Charles this week.

I like the under in this game. The Chiefs dominate on the ground and should easily control the pace of this game. Lacking a strong passing game (Cassel is injured, Moeaki is gone for the year), I don't think they're very likely to drop 40 points and cover this one one their own. The Bills are simply awful-looking on both offense and defense, on paper. 1st rounder Marcell Dareus might actually be their best defensive player. Fitzpatrick had some great performances last year, but has fewer weapons and an inferior offensive line in front of him this year. Fantasy players don't even want Buffalo Bills on their team. It's that bad. This has the makings of a 27-6 game to me. The Chiefs should be able to keep the Bills out of the end-zone, barring a return of some sort.


KANSAS CITY -5.5 over Buffalo


My last pick got me thinking that the Chiefs should handle this one pretty easily, so I figured I'll take a shot on them covering too. Cassel will be able to play, and though he may me limited or less effective than usual. The Chiefs shouldn't have any trouble handing off to Charles and Jones all game long; Cassel won't be called on to throw more than he's needed to. Buffalo is lacking weapons on offense and will rely heavily on Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson. The Chiefs probably won't shut them out, but I don't think they'll have much trouble keeping them contained. Playing at Arrowhead is always a plus. Should be a pretty easy one for KC.

It's not the preseason. Vick will be just fine.

Philadelphia -4 over ST. LOUIS


The Rams might be a popular favorite to win the NFC West, but I don't think any team out of that division measures up to the top quality teams in the rest of the NFL. I can maybe see the Rams offense having some success, but I think the main issue is this game is going to be whether or not the Rams can even stop the Eagles. I don't care much about the preseason... It's the preseason. The Eagles offense is stacked, even with Maclin possibly not in top-notch shape as he recovers from his illness. Vick, McCoy, and Jackson will still get plenty done against the St. Louis D, which ranked 19th overall last year. Unless Bradford has morphed into a healthy version of Peyton Manning this off-season, I don't think the Rams are good enough to keep up. They're a great young team that's on the way up, but they're not there yet. Philly should cover this one.


Dallas +5.5 over NEW YORK JETS

With Revis shadowing Austin, Dez will play a big role this week.

I'm going against the money here, as this line opened the week at 4. I'm not sure if Dallas will take this one outright... I think they can, but I think this is a field goal game either way. I'm a big fan of the Dallas offense. They played great under Jason Garrett last year, averaging just over 29 points a game for their last 8 games. The defense was a liability, however, but new (and quite popular) defensive coordinator Rob Ryan hopes to fix that this year. The Jets are just the opposite, featuring one of the league's top defenses and an offense led by a mediocre QB in Mark Sanchez. The Jets were 22nd passing and 4th rushing last year, but with Damien Woody retiring, I expect the effectiveness of the run game to go down a bit. The Cowboys secondary is bad enough to where Sanchez will enjoy some success though. The Cowboys have the advantage on the ground though, in my opinion. The Jets lost Shaun Ellis this off-season and are really leaning on rookie Muhammad Wilkerson. Dallas has a great run-blocking line and should be able to take advantage of that. I guess what I'm getting at is that both of these teams have relatively equal strengths and weaknesses in my eyes. Both teams will enjoy some success on offense and defense, and I think it stays within a TD. It was a bit tougher for me to take Dallas at only +4, though even that was tempting. I feel confident in +5.5.


TRG
@elaurinovics