TRG: Over/Under - AFC East

Last stop for the over/under series this season, the AFC East. Enjoy football tomorrow and good luck with your picks!

Buffalo Bills UNDER 5.5 (3 units)
They managed to get worse at offense AND defense this off-season. The Bills have little hope for success this year. If you don't believe me, go to NFL.com and take a look at their roster. The defense isn't going to do anything, and the offense doesn't have anything beyond Jackson/Spiller and Stevie Johnson as weapons for Ryan Fitzpatrick. They're my favorite to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.


Miami Dolphins Under 7.5 (2 units)

Reggie Bush won't save the Dolphins.

The Dolphins seem more likely to disappoint than pleasantly surprise. Chad Henne struggled badly at times last season and really needs to improve for the Dolphins to have a chance. The secondary is solid, but the front seven is closer to average. Buffalo is a doormat for everyone in the division, Dolphins included, but they are clearly out-matched by the Patriots and Jets. I think the Dolphins can make the over if they catch all the right breaks this year, but that's what I meant with my opening statement on this team; it's more likely they won't catch all the right breaks. Call me a pessimist, but I'm taking the under.


New England Patriots OVER 11.5 (4 units)
Yep, I'm betting the max on New England getting 12 wins or more. I love their off-season. They locked up their offensive line, are taking good risks on veteran free agents, and stealing Shaun Ellis from the Jets was a great move. With the emergence of tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, the offense will be quite formidable coming out of two tight-end sets. Sporting a platoon of running backs and excellent receiving threats from that base formation, the Pats will be a very tough team to stop. Just another year for New England.

Mark Sanchez needs to improve if the Jets want to win a Super Bowl.

New York Jets OVER 10 (1 unit)
I do believe the Jets have the pieces in place to make the over, but key off-season losses have me concerned that they may have a down year. Losing Damien Woody and Shaun Ellis is a big impact on each of the lines. I still don't believe Sanchez is more than a mediocre QB, so if they struggle to run the ball, the Jets may struggle to win games. That being said, the defense should still be dominant enough to win them games. I'm cautiously taking the over with 1 unit, as those warning signs are enough to keep me from wanting to stake more.


TRG
@elaurinovics