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By Erik Laurinovics, for The Football ERA
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Lately I find myself with wandering thoughts, dreaming of a utopia where I don't have to work, problems such as world hunger and disease are solved, and, most important, I don't have to worry that some idiot wearing a number 4 jersey is going to throw a pick six and ruin my Monday. When the Vikings possessed the ball with under two minutes to go, there were three possible outcomes for that drive:
1) The Vikings score, certainly cover, and very likely win outright. (I had this at about a 10% chance).
2) The Vikings don't score, turn the ball over, lose the game, but cover. (89%)
3) The Vikings turn the ball over and allow a defensive TD, losing outright and ATS. (1%)
Anything other than an interception or fumble return for a TD resulted in Minnesota covering. But it happened. And they didn't cover. Sitting there, quite shocked, I realized I was 0/6 for the week, and had obviously not collected any winnings for week 5. But you know what? This happens. Maybe this won't be my week/month/season/decade/life/whatever, but these things happen. All I can do is stick to what I know, and keep giving you picks. It'll turn around eventually. Perhaps give me a few weeks before you resuming betting your paychecks on my picks, but it'll turn around.
Recap of last week's carnage:
LOSSES
Minnesota +3.5 over NY JETS: See above. Pretty miraculous not-cover. Even more disappointing because I was all over this one and felt very smart until that last TD.
San Diego -6.5 over OAKLAND: I've giving up on Chargers road games at this point. Take the home team until they prove they can actually avoid a meltdown.
St. Louis +2.5 over DETROIT: Oops.
DALLAS -6.5 over Tennessee: At least my analysis held true; CJ ran for 131 yards and the Titans won! If only I would have guessed that he'd run for 131 yards...
Green Bay -2.5 over WASHINGTON: The Packers had 8 possessions in the second half and OT. Here are the results: 1 made FG, 2 missed FG, 4 Punts, 1 INT. Two weeks in a row, two second half meltdowns. Maybe it's time to try GB on the 1st half line.
Houston -2.5 over NY Giants: NY managed to bottle up Foster, and that was that. Very impressive win by NY, and perhaps they are returning to 2008 form.
MORAL VICTORIES
Minnesota +3.5 over NY JETS: Ugh, Brett Favre. He started to annoy me back when he first started his retirement drama in what, 2006? I find him a bit more annoying now.
2010 Overall Record: 9-20-1
This week's motto: It can't get any worse!
Read on for week 6 picks.
PITTSBURGH -13.5 over Cleveland
So, Colt McCoy leads the Browns against the vaunted Steelers defense. On the road. And Ben Roethlisberger is back. I'm not really sure how much analysis you need because I'm set after the first 3 sentences, but for those of you that require more, here it is. We don't really know much about Colt on the NFL level, other than he looked awful in the preseason. I would guess Cleveland will have him hand off as much as possible. That creates a whole separate issue for the Browns; Pittsburgh has the top ranked run defense and is allowing 2.6 yards per carry. I imagine they will also put 8 in the box to slow down Hillis and force Colt to throw. I really don't see how the Browns can cover when Peyton Hillis is now the best, and most well known, player on offense, and he is far from a household name. Most people can't even name three wide receivers on Cleveland's roster (try it!). So really, that's about all I need to see. Presumably no passing game going against the best run D in football. If there's a prop bet for a shutout, I'll take it. And if Colt McCoy is the second coming of Peyton Manning and the Browns somehow cover or win, well... My luck can't be that bad, right?
Baltimore +2.5 over NEW ENGLAND
As I said last week, I love what the Randy Moss trade does for Minnesota. As you would likely guess, I don't like what the Randy Moss trade does for New England. Sure, he only had 9 catches through 4 games for the Pats, but he's a game-breaker. Even when he's not catching the ball, Moss commands a double team. If you look at all of his games this year, most teams rolled a safety over the top very consistently when covering him, which in turn opens things up for the rest of the offense. I don't care who New England plugs into the lineup, they won't force defenses to do that, and their offense will be less effective as a result. Baltimore, to my surprise, has the second ranked pass defense in football, and is third overall. They've been playing great ball, upsetting Pittsburgh on the road and handling Denver at home in the past two weeks (and were 2-0 ATS). Ray Rice is coming off his best game of the year. They really seem to be clicking, New England will be in its first Moss-less game, and I like the upset here.
NEW YORK GIANTS - 10 over Detroit
Two things are going on with this pick. First, I'm on the NYG bandwagon. After getting embarrassed in games against Tennessee and Indy, the Giants dismantled Chicago and Houston, allowing only 393 yards of offense while generating 5 turnovers, 13 (!) sacks, and allowing only 13 points over the two-game span. Yes, it's a small sample size, but I was really impressed with how well they shutdown Houston's 6th ranked offense. It makes Detroit seem like easy pickings this week. I find a 44-6 thrashing of St. Louis to be much less impressive.
Second, Detroit is STILL dealing with injuries, and we're all waiting to find out if Calvin Johnson is playing. Megatron is a freak on the field and if you've seen the Lions play the past few games, you know why. The Lions force-feed him the ball in the red zone, ignoring double or even triple coverage. And he'll make the catch. Losing him this weekend leaves the offense without their best weapon, and even if he does manage to make the start, practice reports have me convinced he won't be 100%.
I anticipate the Giants D to keep rolling this week and like them to cover the 10. Double-digit spreads are a bit intimidating this year, with double digit favorites going 2-4 ATS so far, but I like the Giants to cover. Also seems like a great pick for a 6-7 point teaser.
CHICAGO -6.5 over Seattle
Ah, home field advantage. If there's one team that seems to miss home field more than any other, it's the Seahawks. After going 1-7 ATS on the road last year, Seattle is 0-2 ATS on the road this year. They managed to go 7-3 ATS at home over the same time span. In the two road losses this season, Seattle has produced 17 total points and 6 turnovers. Conversely, the Bears are 2-0 at home, going 1-1 ATS. Moreover, the Bears just rolled the Panthers at home, with Todd Collins at QB throwing 4 INTs. Cutler is returning this week and I do not expect a similar performance.
Looking at matchups, the main discrepancy here is on defense; Chicago is 6th overall, and Seattle is 26th. Both offenses are performing poorly compared to the rest of the league, checking it at 27th and 28th, respectively. I fully expect Seattle to continue to struggle on the road and am not convinced they will be able to get a touchdown after such a poor performance against the Rams two weeks ago. The acquisition of Marshawn Lynch doesn't change anything for me (this week) as Chicago has the 3rd ranked rush defense.
I'm not the biggest proponent of home field advantage, but a 1-9 ATS road record over 10 games is about as bad as it gets. Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results (keep that in mind when you look at my overall record for the year...), but it definitely can be a strong indicator.
Indianapolis -3 over WASHINGTON
Washington enters this game as the latest beneficiary of a Green Bay second half meltdown, winning outright 16-13 in OT. I agree that a win is a win, but Washington has been playing some ugly football the past couple of weeks. Their best strategy this game would be to try to exploit a weakened Colts secondary, but the 'Skins haven't exactly been able to take advantage of their opponents' weaknesses in previous game this year. While they are 3-2, they've 17 or fewer points in every game, except for their 30-27 OT loss to Houston (and keep in mind Houston has the worst secondary in football). They've gone 2-0 the past two weeks after going 0-2 the preceding two weeks, and I think those wins were a product of circumstance; they did not face Vick for the majority of the Eagles game and the Packers decided not to show up in the second half last week's game. Defensively, Washington is allowing a league-worst 410 yards per game. The Colts are also struggling a bit on defense (23rd overall), but certainly don't have the same offensive issues. Washington may be able to score on the Colts this week and get over 17 points, but the Colts simply have more offensive weapons and will easily win if the game becomes a shootout. Colts -3 is a nice low risk pick, and as a bonus for you, I also like the over (currently 44.5).
New York Jets -3 over DENVER
Since losing to Baltimore in week 1, the Jets are 4-0 straight up and ATS. As much as I hate to admit it, it's becoming hard to not like these small lines in Jets' games. The intangibles are what get me about the Jets right now... Tomlinson is playing the best he has in years, Sanchez is improving after a slow start, Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson are doing an admirable job filling in while Revis has been injured, and they stay aggressive late into games... These don't necessarily show up in the stat sheet, but it pays off. The Jets had no business covering last week against the Vikings, but did cover simply because they did not relent and Favre coughed up the INT. That wouldn't have happened if they were sitting back in a prevent defense. The Jets can run the ball (top rushing offense in the league), stop the run, and Sanchez is not making mistakes this year. They keep doing that, and they keep winning. The Broncos enter week 6 with the 19th overall defense, but are 26th against the run. The New York will have the same game plan they have the past three weeks- establish the run to set up the pass, control the ball, and blitz ceaselessly on defense. If they can maintain their level of play, they will cover. My only concern here is some sort of Sanchez meltdown, but he's done a heck of a job avoiding those back-breaking mistakes this year.
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