Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Hope you all had a great day and continue to enjoy the weekend. I had a blast, but it sure was a rough day for my Turkey Day Parlay... The Lions made way too many mistakes to keep that game close, despite doing a relatively good job of containing Aaron Rodgers. Miami continues to play tough, and they look better each week. They didn't win, but they covered against the Cowboys and are now a shocking 5-0 ATS in their last five games. Dallas is getting it done as far as winning is concerned, but they've been less than reliable ATS, going 1-4 in their past five. Baltimore and San Francisco proved to be a defensive battle, but the Baltimore defense got it done sacking Alex Smith a whopping nine times. The Ravens continue to perform well against good opponents, making them one of the stranger teams to bet on after they lose repeatedly as heavy favorites. After getting that terrible parlay out of my system, I plan on the weekend going a bit better. Here are this week's picks.
 |
| Palko should have one last horrible game in him before Orton takes over. |
Pittsburgh -10 over KANSAS CITY
I'll bite on this one. This looks like easy money to me after watching one week of Tyler Palko. The Patriots secondary looked like a top-5 unit after him. Well, Pittsburgh actually is a top-5 unit when it comes to defending the pass, and 6th against the run. I'd take a prop bet on KC getting shutout in this game. Barring a big defensive play or special teams return, I don't see them finding ways to generate points. The Chiefs are way too injured to be competitive at this point. Kyle Orton may help the offense eventually, but I highly doubt he'll be able to contribute much this week. The Steelers should make this look easy.
ATLANTA -9.5 over Minnesota
The Falcons may not be juggernauts at home this season (2-2-1 ATS), but I think they can handle the Vikings without Adrian Peterson. I know nothing is certain about AP, but he was listed as "doubtful", so I'm guessing he's out. Without him, I think the Vikings offense will struggle, just as they did last week. The Falcons have the league's second-ranked rush defense, so they'll be free to go after Ponder as well as sit back in heavy coverage. The Vikings looked good heading into their bye week, but they've gone 0-2 straight up and ATS these last two weeks. It'll be a one-dimensional offense without AP, and the Falcons shouldn't have much trouble stopping them. Atlanta's offense hasn't been consistent, but if they can manage a few touchdowns, they'll cover this spread.
Denver +6 over SAN DIEGO
 |
| Von Miller will cause problems with Chargers LT McNeil out. |
The Chargers are another team on a long losing streak, going 0-5 (0-5 ATS) themselves. Philip Rivers continues to produce horrendous turnovers, and there's no reason to believe this team is going to improve. The offensive line has been devastated by injuries these past couple of weeks and consequently, the offense has suffered. Denver comes into town with a very effective pass rush, having the 10th most sacks (27) in the league. Rookie Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil have the makings of a great pass-rushing duo. The Chargers definitely have the potential to dominate this game and cover, but their problem is they haven't been realizing their potential at all this season. Philip Rivers is having the worst season of his career and injuries have exposed a clear lack of depth at multiple positions. San Diego appears to be unraveling and rumors of Norv Turner being on the hot seat have already started. I like seeing my trends and streaks through, so I'll take the Broncos on the upswing over the Chargers on a downswing. I like their chances to keep it close.
Carolina -4 over INDIANAPOLIS
Speaking of streaks, I'm going to ride Indianapolis until they cover a spread. They're now 0-6 ATS in their last six games, and I love the matchup for Carolina here. Cam Newton should be able to shred the Colts defense, and the Colts offense is so bad that they still probably won't be able to keep up against a soft Panthers defense. Indy has had virtually no success rushing, no matter whose been starting (24th overall). With 5 TDs, 7 INTs, and an average of 164.4 YPG, I don't think Painter is going to keep up with Newton. This is another pretty straightforward bet, as again, there's no real need to over-think picking against Indy until they prove they can win one. Don't care who they're playing.
 |
| Rob Gronkowski (TE) is second in the NFL with 8 TD receptions. |
New England/Philadelphia OVER 50
It may be hard to remember after they dominated Tyler Palko and the Chiefs last week, but New England has a bad defense. Philadelphia may be missing Michael Vick, but Vince Young has to be considered one of the best backup QBs out there right now. After getting a win in his first start with the Eagles, he gets to square off against a very beatable Patriots defense. Young, McCoy, and Jackson should be able to put some points on the board.
The Patriots are familiar with scoring points, averaging 29.3 per game, good for 4th in the league. The Eagles secondary may be particularly vulnerable this week, as CB Nnamdi Asomugha hyper-extended his knee in practice and may not play on Sunday. Regardless, no one has been able to stop the Brady-Gronkowski connection, and they've teamed up for 5 TDs in their past three games.
I like both offenses' ability to score so I'm going with the over here.
Chicago +4 over OAKLAND
I know Cutler is out for the year and I'm not sure if I'm a Caleb Hanie fan yet, but the Bears have enough pieces is place to succeed with a mediocre or even below-average QB. Look at what the Niners have done with Alex Smith at QB. They've mitigated his impact by running a ball-control offense, shutting down the run, and clamping down in the redzone. There's no reason the Bears can't work a similar strategy behind Matt Forte and a great defense. The Raiders have the 26th overall rushing defense, so expect to see a lot of Matt Forte on Sunday.
Oakland is a nice story with QB Carson Palmer coming on board mid-season, but I'm still not convinced he's going to take the offense to the next level. He only threw for 164 yards against Minnesota's 28th ranked secondary. This will probably be a close game and I like the Bears getting the points. Oakland may find a way to win, but if they do, I don't think they'll get it by a touchdown. As long as the Bears can keep Hanie from serving up points on a silver platter, they can remain competitive and cover.
