So we're having an abbreviated version of Pick 6 today, as I'm headed to Las Vegas in the morning, and I'm starting this way too late. I really like a lot of the lines this week though, so don't let the shorter than normal analyses fool you. I like the big favorites this week, and there are a couple of choice underdogs, too. It's only the second week, so we don't really have an idea of who's consistent yet, but here the most favorable matchups that I see:
Dallas -3 over SAN FRANCISCO
I've said many times already that I don't think the NFC West matches up well with any non-NFC West team, and this is a prime example here. Dallas played very well against NYJ until they imploded in the 4th quarter. The Jets run defense was stingy, as expected, but Romo threw for 342 yards. The Niners, on the other hand, generated a TOTAL of 209 yards against the lowly Seahawks, and that was at home. They'd be lucky to do the same against Dallas, and the defense isn't going to be able to keep up with Romo and the Cowboys offense. Dallas should win easily.
PITTSBURGH -14 over Seattle
The Seahawks have been a terrible road team for years now, and were 2-6 last season on the road, ATS. They even managed to add another road loss last week. Continuing the NFC West vs. anyone else theory, the Steelers are going to absolutely dismantle the Seahawks. The Niners shut down the Seahawks for the majority of last week's game; the Steelers defense will have a field day. Moreover, WR Sidney Rice is looking very unlikely to play for Seattle. Alex Smith may have made the Seattle D look good last week, but look for Pittsburgh to make a statement in this one. I don't buy the "angry team" theory for many teams, but Pittsburgh is one of the rare exceptions. The fact they get to take out their anger on Seattle makes it an even easier pick. They'll pull out all of the stops and put up a big score.
NEW YORK JETS -9.5 over Jacksonville
Jacksonville managed to win last week, but it wasn't exactly inspiring. I'm not optimistic for Luke McCown's long-term chances of success this season. The Jets secondary completely out-classes the Jags WR corps. Running MJD into the teeth of one of the top run-stopping units in football doesn't sound like it will go too well either. Sanchez isn't a good QB by any means himself, but the Jets are going to pound the ball with Shonne Green in this one. It won't be a shoot-out, and the Jets will likely pile up a pretty big time of possession advantage. As long as they avoid mistakes and convert their opportunities, this should be a cover for NYJ.
Green Bay -10 over CAROLINA
The Pack dropped 42 on the Saints defense, which was widely considered to be one of the better defenses coming into this season. Carolina is not considered to be a "better defense." They are considered to be rather terrible. After giving up 309 yards passing to Kevin Kolb, things aren't any easier for the Panthers this week against Aaron Rodgers and his offense. The Packers looked just as explosive last week as they did at the end of last season. Cam Newton would win a lot of people over with a good performance in this game, myself included, but I think he comes back down to Earth a bit against a much stronger defense, though.
Cleveland/Indianapolis UNDER 37.5
I like the under in what is easily the most miserable game of the week. These two offenses combined for a total of 24 points last week. Kerry Collins and the Colts looked hopeless. The Browns may be favored, but Colt McCoy struggled last week, going 19/40 passing. They'll have a hard time keeping the Colts honest and we'll see Indy loading up to stop Peyton Hillis. I think the Browns win this game, but I don't think either team is capable of lighting up the score board.
San Diego +7 over NEW ENGLAND
It's rare to see a team as good as San Diego getting so many points. Unless these are the 2007 Patriots, this game should stay within a TD. In their last seven games against each other (including post-season), New England has only won by more than 7 points twice. The Pats looked great last week, but San Diego should be able to apply a little bit more pass rush than the Dolphins did. Brady isn't going to throw for 500 yards again. Another important observation from the Miami/NE game was that Chad Henne actually looked good against the Patriots secondary and threw for over 300 yards. San Diego/NE should make for another all-out passing affair, and both teams are good enough to keep up and keep it close. I'll take the 7 points, and getting 2.5 to 1 on the moneyline is mighty tempting too. You're not going to see this good of a 7-point underdog for the rest of the year.
TRG
@ELaurinovics
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