Note: Due to my liking the lines on KC, SD, and Oakland, I've decided to stake 3 units on all of them. Still adds up to 10 units, to make sure each division has the same weight.
 |
| The Broncos' defense needs Von Miller to be huge this year. |
New coach John Fox leaves one miserable team and gets hired by another. The Broncos defensive line is already in trouble with injuries, and while Von Miller may very well help their pass rush, they are still lacking talent in both the front seven and the secondary. Retaining Orton is probably best for the offense, but Denver still only finished 4-12 last year, despite Orton's surprising season. The schedule looks tough this year, as the AFC West is facing the AFC East and NFC North. Wins will be hard to come by, but if you can pass the ball in today's NFL, you'll manage to win some games. I feel like the Broncos will be right around 5 or 6 wins, so this line is tough. I'll take the under, but only for 1 unit.
Kansas City Chiefs OVER 7.5 (3 units)
I'm not exactly sure why so many experts are down on the Chiefs. While the schedule is tough, the Chiefs are loaded with young talent. They finished last season at 10-6, sporting the league's 14th ranked defense and 12th ranked offense. While Matt Cassel isn't the trendiest of QBs, he has at least proven to be an effective game-manager at this point. Jamaal Charles is one of the best backs in the league and is still running behind a decent offensive line. Clearly ahead of division rivals Denver and Oakland, the Chiefs should be able to get at least 4 division wins this year. Finding 4 more wins on their schedule isn't too hard to imagine. This line is one of the better bargains out there in my opinion, so I'll stake 3 units on it.
 |
| Darren McFadden can run, but it won't be enough to make the Over. |
Oakland Raiders UNDER 6.5 (3 units)
This seems like another straight-forward pick to me. The Raiders have spent their off-season watching their most talented players (Nnamdi, Z Miller, to name a couple) leave in free agency, while continuing to over-pay to retain mediocre talent (M Huff). One of the few bright spots on the team is the emergence of Darren McFadden, and he'll again combine with Michael Bush to make a great backfield tandem. The problem is the Raiders still have a mediocre QB (Jason Campbell) and no established weapons at wideout or tight end. They'll see a lot of 8-man fronts this year, and have done nothing to convince me they can come close to repeating last year's 8-8 performance, which included two wins over the very fluky Chargers. They have a feel of a 6-win team at best. I say take the under.
 |
| Rivers to Jackson will be a regular occurrence in San Diego this year. |
San Diego Chargers OVER 10.0 (3 units)
The Chargers finished 9-7 in an extraordinarily bizarre season for them last year, so this one seems like another no-brainer. Solid off-season moves have added depth to the league's top-ranked defensive unit, and hopefully some of the younger players will help improve special teams performance this season, which was their Achilles' heel last season. On the offensive side of the ball, neither Vincent Jackson nor Marcus McNeil are holding out as they did last season, so there should be some improvement there as well. Easily the strongest team in the division, I don't see how this is anything less than a push; it's virtually unthinkable that San Diego does not make the playoffs this year. If they can avoid their annual early season slump, this one is a lock. Take the over, and SD to win the division isn't a bad bet either.
No comments:
Post a Comment