Rambling Gambler: Pick Six Week SIXTEEN

Ramblings and Gambling
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By Erik Laurinovics, for The Football ERA

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It's getting to be beyond ridiculous at this point... This past week was loaded with some shocking upsets! Philly came back in epic fashion to gain control of the NFC East, and like it or not, Vick has to be in consideration for the MVP award. There hasn't been one player who has done more on the field this year. Detroit has exceeded all expectations and actually developed a winning streak, amazingly with Stanton under center... The Jets were an outright winner at Pittsburgh as a 6 point dog and backup QB Matt Flynn nearly knocked off the Pats, giving Green Bay a cover as 14 point dogs. It really is week to week this year. There are either very few pushovers or very few strong teams this season, depending on your point of view. In either case, while the word has been tossed around for many seasons now, I believe "parity" has finally been achieved. The tight playoff race right now is a good indicator of it... Only one division clinched (NFC North) and we've still got two games left. With some more huge matchups this week, it's looking like another challenging one. But, before this week's picks... the week 15 recap.
 
Week 15 Recap
 
LOSSES
 
Dallas -6.5 over WASHINGTON: The 'Boys took their foot off the pedal a bit too soon in this one, squandering a 20 point lead. Though they blew it in week 15, I don't think I can stay away in week 16...
New Orleans +1 over BALTIMORE: The Ravens D made the Saints one-dimensional and made just enough plays to slow Brees down to get the win.
TAMPA BAY -5.5 over Detroit: How 'bout those Lions? I didn't see that one coming. The defense is suddenly looking a bit tougher.

San Francisco +9 over SAN DIEGO: As I feared, the Niners were demolished. Alex Smith looks terrible. The Chargers look great and will be dangerous, if they make the playoffs...

 

WINS

 

Atlanta -7 over SEATTLE: Well, the "any good team against the NFC West" theory continues to gain momentum- in addition to the Falcons, the Chiefs and Chargers covered as well, bringing the record to 2-16.

Philadelphia +2.5 over NY GIANTS: Thank you Michael Vick, the Giants punter, and Desean Jackson. Great comeback, great win.

 

2010 Overall Record: 33-55-2

 

Week 16 Picks

 

Dallas -6.5 over ARIZONA

 

No reason to stop betting against my best cash cow. While Dallas might not qualify as a "good team" with their record, they're 4-2 under Garrett (5-1 ATS). So I'll say they qualify as a "good team" based on his interim performance. Even if you don't think they're a good team, the NFC West still loses to bad teams every now and again... The 2-12 Panthers got both of their wins thanks to the NFC West.

The Cowboys offense is playing very well, putting up 33 more points in a win last week, and have scored at least 27 points in each of their past six games. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have eclipsed 27 points only once in that same period.

Defensively, both teams have been getting shredded (this should make for a very entertaining Christmas game). The only positive for either team is the Cowboys rank 14th against the run, and that's bad news for Skelton and the passing game. Good rookie QBs always have a good running game behind them, but I doubt the 30th ranked Cardinals running game will give Skelton much relief. I thought last week would be the game that Dallas blew somebody out, but it looks like I had to wait until this week. Christmas will offer many points, big plays, and a Dallas cover.

 

 

TAMPA BAY -6 over Seattle

 

In addition to the "any good team against the NFC West" theory, I've also got Seattle's terrible history on the road to support me. The Seahawks are 2-5 ATS on the road this year, with wins coming against the Bears and the Cardinals. Moreover, the Seahawks have lost 4 out of their last 5 games, going 0-4 ATS in each loss (the lone win was against the Panthers). They are playing awful football lately, lacking a good quarterback and are really unable to compete except against other cellar-dwellers.

Tampa Bay isn't exactly a lock at home with a very poor 1-5-1 record, but I think Seattle can put one in the win column for them. The Bucs have managed to win against the rest of the NFC West, going 3-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS. While the Bucs are vulnerable against the run (29th), Seattle is in no position to exploit this weakness, sporting the 31st ranked run offense and have failed to produce a 100-yard rusher all season. This strikes me as similar to the Tampa-SF matchup, and I expect a similar result. Tampa is good to cover and an absolute lock in a teaser.

 
 
Baltimore -3.5 over CLEVELAND
 
With an impressive win over the Saints last week, Baltimore is alive and well in the hunt for a playoff spot. Cleveland is out of contention, but the Browns have been plucky and have been putting up quite a fight in most of their games. Earlier this year, Hillis had his breakout game against the Ravens D, putting up 144 yards, but the Browns lost the game, 17-24.
Looking at the stats, Baltimore is clearly superior. Despite success running the ball, the Browns still have the 29th ranked offense in the league. Moreover, Colt McCoy hasn't played against the Ravens before (Wallace played that week 3 game) and you can be sure they'll be coming after him. He's only averaged 206.7 YPG over his past three games, so the Browns will likely be one-dimensional. An average Ravens offense (18th) shouldn't have a problem getting some points against the Browns 22nd ranked defense.
The ATS records also favor the Ravens in this one. Baltimore is a solid 4-2-1 on the road so far, while Cleveland has struggled at home, going 2-4.
It's a must win for Baltimore and I feel confident that they get it. Buy this one down to 3 and take Baltimore.
 
 
PHILADELPHIA -14.5 over Minnesota
 

I can't think of too many games that have had this large of a discrepancy of skill at the quarterback position. Michael Vick is being discussed as a MVP candidate; rookie Joe Webb is coming off his debut where he threw for 126 yards and 2 INTs. Throw in an injured Adrian Peterson and a Vikings team with nothing to play for, and the 14.5 isn't looking so bad. After watching the Minnesota offense on MNF this past week, I have a hard time believing they'll be able to accomplish much of anything with Webb at quarterback. There's simply no threat to pass, so the defense will be able to focus completely on stopping the run. Fortunately for Philadelphia, stopping the run has been a strength of this defense (11th overall against the run). The Minnesota defense has been playing quite well (6th overall), but the Eagles offense has been overwhelming opponents as of late. The Giants have the 2nd ranked defense in the league and they were destroyed in the second half of last week's game. The Eagles have too many weapons to be stopped for an entire game. Minnesota can't say the same this week, and I'd be surprised if they were able to put up more than 10. Seeing as Philly has scored 26 or more points for 7 consecutive games, I'm not worried about the big spread (but buy it down to 14). Philly should win this one easily.
 
 
Houston -2.5 over DENVER
 

Though it's always an adventure betting on Houston, this week looks like a winnable one. I do not expect Tebow to step in and put up big numbers. While he did a fine job in last week's debut, he didn't look like the second coming of Elway, either. Offensive issues aside, the real mismatch here is the Broncos defense. Ranking 22nd against the pass and 31st against the run, the Houston offense is definitely going to be moving the ball and putting up points; the Texans have 5th ranked passing offense and 10th ranked rushing offense. As we all know, the Texans secondary is one of the worst in the league, but Tebow hasn't established himself as a passer yet (8/16 for 138 isn't that inspiring to me). The Texans do rate as the 9th over rush defense, and that make this game even more of a mismatch. Houston's ability to slow down the run will generate more possessions for the Texans, and the better of the two offenses will win this game. Hopefully this will be a rare, nice and easy win for Houston.
 
 
San Diego -7.5 over CINCINNATI

 
The Chargers still need Kansas City to lose a game in order to win the division and make the playoffs, but they are certainly looking like the proverbial "team that nobody wants to play." Coming off a 34-7 demolition of the Niners, San Diego has had an extra few days to prepare for this game. The Bengals did manage to get their third win of the season against the Browns last week, but nothing about their play recently convinces me that they'll be able to compete with a team of San Diego's caliber. The Chargers have won 4 of their past 5 games, scoring 31+ points and winning by a margin of 21+ points in each game. The Bengals defense has been only average this year (18th overall) and they've given up an average of 29.8 points over their past 5 games. On the offensive side of the ball, Cincy has lost TO for the season and may be shutting down Ochocinco for the season as well. Palmer has 18 interceptions on the year, and is facing a San Diego team that leads the league in sacks. The Chargers have the 2nd ranked run defense to go with that, and this matchup has all the makings of a blowout. I like San Diego giving the points and they are a great teaser pick.