Thursday, September 16, 2010

Rambling Gambler: Pick Six Week TWO

Ramblings and Gambling:
By Erik Laurinovics, for The Football ERA

Well, week one is in the books, and it was a doozy. There were quite a few landmines last week, and I ran into one of them. San Francisco was an absolute disaster last week, and I doubt anyone saw a 25 point margin of victory by Seattle happening there.

Recapping the rest of the six from week one:


New Orleans -5.5. Thank you Garret Hartley. We were a blown 32 yard field goal away from covering.
San Francisco -3. Total disaster, as mentioned. Special thanks to Alex Smith and the secondary for being particularly awful.
Atlanta -2. Everyone knew this would be a tough game, and it didn't work out for the Falcons. Tough loss, and they'll be fine in weeks to come. Field goal in OT would have won and covered.


Green Bay -3. Pretty easy cover, and they were in control the whole time. Love them again this week.
Miami -3. Miami could have (should have?) won by more. Buffalo will provide some easy covers this year.
Jacksonville -3. If Garrard continues to play efficiently and mistake free, they might not be as bad as we think.

As people overreact to the events of week 1, there will be some good opportunities this week. Here are the picks for week two!

TENNESSEE -5.5 over Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh lost another offensive lineman in week 1 (Max Starks) and lived off their defense. These injuries have to catch up to them at some point, and Tennessee at home seems might appealing, particularly after they demolished the Raiders last week. If Pittsburgh covers again this week, I'll back off the anti-Steeler vibe I'm likely producing, but I can't see them winning again with that o-line, especially against a better defense.

CINCINNATI +2 over Baltimore

The early money is going on Baltimore as this line opened at 1. While the Ravens squeaked out a victory last week, Cincinnati was absolutely crushed by New England, going down 31-3 at one point. The final score of 38-24 was deceptive. Why am I picking Cincy? Well, week 1 is just one week. Baltimore did not exactly impress against the Jets; they put up only 10 points despite getting 125 penalty yards from the Ravens. They also committed 3 turnovers. While you can argue that the defense played well, Mark Sanchez isn't exactly a force throwing the ball, and never challenged the Ravens weak secondary deep. The Bengals will, and I like them to rebound and pull the upset. Don't forget they swept the division last year.

Philadelphia -6 over DETROIT

It's still popular to pick against the Lions! I may be reading too much into it, but I love that Michael Vick brought Philly back from a 20-3 deficit and had the game-tying drive stall at the GB 42 yard line in closing minutes. With Kolb almost certainly sitting on the bench this week, I think Vick we may see the Michael Vick Revival Tour continue. The Eagles claim he won't make them the starter, but he'll make them think after this week. Moreover, Stafford is out for the Lions, and noodle-armed Shaun Hill won't be able to get the ball to their best weapon, Calvin Johnson. At least not further than 20 yards down the field. The Lions will be pretty one dimensional this week, and the Eagles should win easily.

GREEN BAY -13.5 over Buffalo

The Packers might win this game by 30. Ryan Grant has never been a focal point in the offense and I'm not expecting much of a drop off in production from Brandon Jackson. The Bills were awful at home last week, generating only 166 yards of total offense. Despite having 3 good running backs, none ran for more than 20 yards. The only way Green Bay does not cover this game is if that thunderstorm from Kansas City moves to Green Bay. If it's a sunny day, take Green Bay, and laugh all the way to the bank as they pummel the Bills.

New England -3 over NEW YORK JETS

This is probably the week where the preseason Super Bowl hype surrounding the Jets is officially laid to rest. New England showed that they should still be the favorites in this division, while the Jets showed that Mark Sanchez can't complete a pass for more than 15 yards. The Ravens focused on shutting down Braylon Edwards, and the Jets failed miserably on offense. Moreover, Brian Shottenheimer has stated that he will bench Shonne Green again if he fumbles, and continue to run LT. Perhaps this is a motivational tactic, but benching one of your best offensive players seems like a bad idea to me. Revis may contain Moss, but Wes Welker looked super human last week... The Jets won't be able to slow down New England like they did Baltimore, and the New York offense has not convinced me they can produce anything. Defense wins championships, but not by itself.

Houston -3 over WASHINGTON

Based on week 1, I find this line confusing. Houston led 27-10 in the 4th quarter against Indy, and while Peyton complied some large numbers, a good chunk came in garbage time with the game decided. Washington, on the other hand, didn't score an offensive touchdown. I'm really not thinking that much about this one and trusting my instincts. Both Washington and Houston won at home against quality teams, and the Texans were more impressive in my opinion. A field goal isn't much to cover, and I think they'll get to 2-0.

No comments: