Arizona/Minnesota OVER 45
The Arizona defense has given up 21+ points in 3 out of 4 games, with Seattle being the lone team they held under. The Vikings defense has been even worse, points-wise, giving up 21+ in all four games so far. In either case, neither defense is likely to make this a low-scoring affair. Arizona has Beanie Wells coming off a breakout week and should be able to continue their offensive success. Minnesota hasn't played well at all so far, so hopefully they begin to lean a bit more on AP. Regardless, the Cards 26th ranked passing defense is probably soft enough for McNabb to find the endzone one or two times.
Update: Minnesota's top CB, Antoine Winfield is out. Get this one while the getting's good!
Philadelphia -3 over BUFFALO
I don't think the Eagles are as bad as everyone thinks, and I don't think the Bills are as good as everyone thinks. The Eagles defense may be having issues stopping the run, but the offense is producing. The Niners D is ranked 4th against the run and is 7th overall in points allowed, so I'd say the Eagles did fine there. The Bills will need a big dose of Fred Jackson to keep this one close... The Eagles actually have the 11th ranked pass defense thus far, and I expect them to slow Fitzpatrick & Co. down. In the end, I think Buffalo's 27th ranked defense is the deal breaker for me here. Philly's offense is still explosive and they'll hang some points on the Bills. I like them to win, so I don't mind giving the field goal.
San Diego -4 over DENVER
I hate picking the Chargers because I always feel like they're going to blow it, but I'm too tempted to pass them up this week. The Broncos just got flattened by the Packers high-powered offense, and the Chargers have the potential to do the same. I say "potential" because we've yet to see the Chargers offense really come alive yet (last week's 26 points is their season high)... With Gates down, Ryan Mathews has begun to come into his own, and the Chargers backfield has to be considered one of the top in the league at this point. With both backs able to catch the ball out of the backfield, I'm not as worried about San Diego being down Gates and/or Jackson. Moreover, their 6th ranked defense shouldn't have much trouble containing the Broncos.
Green Bay/Atlanta OVER 53.5
I really want to take Atlanta and the points here, but I'm not allowing myself to after they've burned me nearly every week. I think this one is going to be an easy over. The Packers have no issues scoring points. Matt Ryan is a different man playing at home, and with Julio Jones getting better every week, the passing game should come to life against the Pack; they are currently 31st in passing yards allowed. They're playing in the dome at Atlanta, so no weather concerns here. Should be a great aerial display on SNF with this over getting hit sometime in the third quarter.
Tennessee +3 over PITTSBURGH
Pittsburgh is so riddled with injuries I'm surprised they're giving points. Tennessee getting a field goal is a great line, and I think the Titans have a good shot at winning this one outright. The Steelers o-line is in shambles, Mendenhall is going to be a game-time decision, James Harrison is out, and the list goes on. I'm not saying it's going to be easy for the Titans, and it's tough for me to bet against the Steelers at home, but man, that's one banged-up team. The once-vaunted Steelers run defense is ranked 22nd so far this season, facing Chris Johnson who finally started to heat up a bit last week, clearing the 100 yard mark for the first time this season. Like I said, the Titans have a shot at winning, so I'll take the 3 points.
NEW YORK GIANTS -9.5 over Seattle
Why not? I love to bet against Seattle. They're one of the worst road teams, on the road. NY may not have much of a D these days, but Seattle doesn't have much of an O, either, so maybe it'll work out. NY has scored, 28, 29, and 31 in their last 3 games, so I don't doubt their capability to cover. The passing game has looked good. Like I said, keeping it short and sweet this week.
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