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By Erik Laurinovics, for The Football ERA
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I hope everyone had a good holiday! We're back with a regular-sized post this week, while recovering from a turkey-coma and 3/6 weekend. Happily for me, I hit my Turkey Day Parlay, but it unfortunately doesn't help my official stats here. It was quite a week with several games with playoff implications and we've got a couple more great ones this week. MNF gets a nice rebound in particular with Jets-Pats... Anyway, to recap last week, I must grudgingly admit that Jacksonville played a respectable game against New York and I will not refer to them as a "terrible team" for the near future. The Jaguars are shockingly still in first place in the AFC South, and with the way the Colts have played lately, I'm beginning to wonder if they might stay there. The Colts did, however, make the Chargers look fantastic, and all of the sudden it doesn't seem so ridiculous to imagine a team with the top-ranked offense and defense may win out.With more teams beginning to settle in, finding winners should hopefully become a little easier.
Week 12 Recap:
LOSSES
NY GIANTS -7 over Jacksonville: The Jags played this one tough on the road, and as much as I hate to admit it, probably should have won the game. Maybe they're not that bad.
Philadelphia -3.5 over CHICAGO: We found a defense that can slow down Michael Vick! Chicago looks stronger every week. The Eagles are good, but perhaps not the best in the NFC.
Green Bay +2 over ATLANTA: Well if Baltimore and Green Bay can't knock off the Falcons at home, who can?
WINS
Kansas City -1.5 over SEATTLE: That's two consecutive home games with two good teams, and two consecutive beat downs for the Seahawks. I don't think they'll win the NFC West.
Houston -6.5 over TENNESSEE: Good ol' Rusty made the Texans pass defense look good! I actually considered picking the Jags this week, that's how bad they looked.
San Francisco 0 over ARIZONA: Well they won, but Arizona is looking so awful I'm not sure that means much. Frank Gore going down for the year makes that win a bit empty for the Niners. I see no reason not to bet against Arizona again this week.
2010 Overall Record: 26-44-2
Week 13 Picks:
Chicago -3.5 over DETROIT
This line is all over the place right now, varying from "off" to 6. The bulk of the lines I could find ranged from 3 to 4. This is a pretty good indicator that some are not sure how to price this game with Shaun Hill likely out. After watching Chicago play a great all-around game against a tough Eagles team, the thought of them facing a Drew Stanton led Lions squad has me thinking this is a lock. Stanton was 19/34, with 222 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT when he filled in against the Giants in week 6. With 87 of those yards and the TD coming on one play, he didn't exactly look too impressive. Jay Cutler is another story. He played one of his best games of the season going 14/21, with 247 yards and 4 TDs. He threw some great passes and more importantly, did not throw any interceptions. The defense is already playing great, so if Cutler can keep his momentum going, the Bears should roll in this matchup. The Lions offense will have a tough time moving the ball and even if Cutler doesn't get it going, the Lions are ranked 24th against the run; I don't think Chicago will have too much trouble getting points. Take the Bears.
SAN DIEGO -13 over Oakland
If you're surprised at the 13 point line for this game, then you haven't been watching the Chargers play lately. They manhandled the Colts on Sunday, shutting down Peyton Manning like it wasn't a big deal. I think we finally saw the potential of this team when they don't cripple themselves with dumb mistakes. The Chargers do have the top-ranked offense AND defense in the league, so this kind of play really shouldn't be a surprise. As usual, they look like they will dominate the second half of the season. Oakland, however, is looking a bit less fortunate. They're reeling after these past two losses and have been unable to generate any sort of offense. With Gradkowski injured, Jason Campbell isn't offering much of a hope to remedy that issue. Even more alarming, the Raiders couldn't run the ball whatsoever against an average (14th) Dolphins run defense, producing a pitiful 16 yards on the ground. All-pro corner Nnamdi Asomugha looks out or less than 100% this week and thats' the final nail in the coffin for me. The Raiders are very quickly falling apart and I don't think they're going to surprise the Chargers like they did earlier this year. Rivers will have another big day and cruise to an easy win. Oakland may not even get on the board.
St. Louis -3.5 over ARIZONA
This line opened at 2.5 and has already moved a point. Why not? Arizona looks done. The quarterback situation is a joke, with coach Whisenhunt saying he doesn't want risk "damaging" John Skelton by starting him when it is virtually impossible to succeed. A sad state of affairs indeed, and the Cardinals are already looking forward to next year. The Niners didn't even need to throw against them and racked up 261 yards on the ground. They are exactly juggernauts on the ground, either, averaging 110.8 yards per game, good for 17th (and that's including the 261 they picked up last week). St. Louis is in the same neighborhood, currently averaging 104.3 YPG, good for 20th. I'm fairly certain will see a pretty heavy dosage of Steven Jackson against the Cardinals this week. With Derek Anderson the quarterback by default, the offense will remain inconsistent and prone to disastrous turnovers. I'm betting against Arizona until these lines get bigger or until the Cards show some signs of life.
New Orleans -7 over CINCINNATI
The Bengals have imploded over the past few weeks and aren't looking capable of winning much. With a banged up secondary, inconsistent quarterback, and amazing ability to find a new way to lose every week (last week the special teams gave it a go!), things can't get much worse for the Bengals. The Saints coming to town sure isn't going to make things better. The Saints have been attempting to regain their form from last season and things are improving. They've won their last four in a row, Brees has thrown for over 300 yards in three of those four games and led a fantastic game-winning drive against Dallas. The Saints bring in the 4th ranked offense and 7th ranked defense against the 22nd and 16th ranked units for the Bengals, respectively. The Bengals stand 1-4 at home and the Saints are 4-1 on the road (2-3 ATS). To me, the signs point to a New Orleans cover. Cincinnati has looked terrible the past two weeks and I don't think they'll recover this week against the Saints.
Dallas +5.5 over INDIANAPOLIS
Why not? Dallas is 3-0 ATS under Jason Garrett, and the Chargers just made a nice blueprint for beating the Colts. San Diego dominated the game with a successful pass rush and forced 4 Manning INTs. The Cowboys have registered 5 sacks in their past two games. The Colts couldn't run the ball against San Diego. The Cowboys defense, allowing an average of 114 rushing yards per game this season, have only allowed 256 rushing yards in three games under Jason Garrett. Force Manning to throw and pound him with the pass rush, and the Cowboys very well could win this game outright. Indy is looking a bit vulnerable losing three of their last four, while Dallas is revitalized under Jason Garrett, winning two of three since he took over. I still find it hard to believe that Wade Phillips was holding them back that much, but it's hard to argue with results. As mentioned earlier, Dallas is 3-0 ATS the past three weeks, and they have the defensive personnel to replicate the the performance the Chargers had against the Colts. Dallas on the money line may be a bit aggressive, but the 5.5 looks great, and they are a lock in a teaser.
NEW YORK JETS +3.5 over New England
The Jets haven't looked good doing it, but they keep finding ways to win (9-2) and most of time time, cover (7-4 ATS). If you've read previous posts of mine, you'll know that I tend to like picking the Jets because they have a strong defense and a good run game. Call me old fashioned, but I think those two things still win football games, more often than not. The matchups look like they really play to the Jets strengths. The Patriots are average running the ball (16th) and face a great run defense (4th). The Jets might not be the best passing the ball (18th), but the Patriots are one of the worst defending it (31st). That aspect, in particular, is key to me. The Jets will run the ball regardless, but if they can get Sanchez and the passing game going, it only makes it that much easier for them to run the ball, control the game, and wear out the other team. Sanchez has only thrown for 300 yards twice this entire year, but did so against Detroit and Houston. Both teams are also terrible against the pass. Look for the NY offense to put up some points this game and look for the defense to keep Tom Brady at bay. I think the Jets win outright, so +3.5 looks just fine to me.
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