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By Erik Laurinovics, for The Football ERA
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I think my theme for this week is to rely on teams consistently being inconsistent. While last week was an obvious improvement over my week 5 goose egg, 2-3-1 isn't exactly anything to be too proud of (though it feels like a miracle this year). There were plenty of close games last week, with the NYG, Baltimore, NYJ, Pittsburgh, and Indy picks all coming down to the final few minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Baltimore, Indy, and NYG all blew it, of course, but at least I had some fleeting hope for a little while. The Bears served as a great reminder that you can't depend on anyone this year, despite the fact that was Seattle's second road win ATS in 11 games.
Injuries are also beginning to mount and becoming more and more of a factor in my picks. Quarterbacks are dropping like flies and key players, such as Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, and Joshua Cribbs, are all in danger of missing week 7. Just as Colt McCoy made Pittsburgh an easy pick last week, these injuries will influence my decisions this week as well.
Week 6 Recap:
LOSSES
Baltimore +2.5 over NEW ENGLAND: This one hurt the most. The Ravens were up 20-10 in the 4th quarter and it seemed like it was in the bag. Not a whole lot to say other than they let it get away.
NYG -10 over Detroit: The Giants did not have this covered until late in the game and it didn't seem like they would hold on. Sadly, a 50 yard Jason Hanson field goal late in the 4th cost me the win here.
CHICAGO -6.5 over Seattle: Wow. Talk about being blindsided; I did not see this coming at all. I figured there was a chance they didn't cover, but an outright win for Seattle?!? That o-line is terrible, and you can feel all of the hope and promise the Bears had early in the season slipping away. This does not look like a team that will be playing post-season football.
WINS
PITTSBURGH -13.5 over Cleveland: They let the Browns hang around far too long, and Colt McCoy did better than expected. However, the defense came through with a late turnover and provided the cover.
NYJ -3 over Denver: Score one for the good guys! I finally had a game being decided in the final minutes go my way. Sanchez did his best to prove me wrong by throwing his first two picks of the year. The fact they won in spite of Sanchez shows how far the run game and defense will carry this team.
Indy/Was OVER 44.5: It wasn't an official pick and isn't going into the record, but I of course have to point out that my bonus O/U pick was correct.
PUSHES
Indianapolis -3 over WASHINGTON: That was a crappy push. This game was not nearly as close as the score would seem to indicate.
2010 Overall Record: 11-23-2
Here comes week seven:
Arizona +6 over SEATTLE
I know this seems like a strange one, but hear me out. First and foremost, as I mentioned earlier, I'm starting to realize you can rely on teams to be consistently inconsistent. Seattle is definitely one of those teams. Coming off a huge road victory against the Bears and being tied for the NFC West lead, they are primed for a trap game. Meanwhile, in Max Hall's first NFL start, Arizona took down the defending Super Bowl champs. They're also coming off a bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for this. As with any rookie QB, if he's got it in him, Max Hall will only get better with time. The one very important thing I noticed in the AZ-NO game was that Hall was able to get the ball into Larry Fitzgerald, and if you want to win games, you need to get the ball to your playmakers. Statistically speaking, there isn't much of a reason to pick Arizona. Across the board (overall, run, or pass), their defense is ranked 26th or worse. Seattle, however, hasn't exactly been an offensive juggernaut, coming in 27th overall on the year for offense. The defense comes in at 24th overall. It's a big game for these NFC West teams, and I'm going to bank on Max Hall somehow leading Arizona to a cover, if not an outright win. The defense has underperformed throughout the year, but for whatever reason, they found a way to contain the Saints and force turnovers. If they can do that again, they can hang in there against Seattle and cover with 6 points.
SAN DIEGO -2.5 over New England
DISCLAIMER: This pick is based on Gates playing in this game. If he's out, I'm out on this one. He'll likely be a game time decision, so this pick is staying in here either way, but don't say I didn't warn you.
Now you probably really think I'm crazy. Don't worry- I saved my sane picks for the end of the post, that way it finishes well. The only logical sense I can make of this San Diego team is that they are awful on the road (0-4 ATS) and fantastic at home (2-0 ATS). In two home games, the Chargers have put up 81 points and allowed only 23. Consequently, in what looks to be a tough week, I'll roll the dice and take the Chargers at home. The -2.5 tells my brain this line is a trap and the oddsmakers are inviting bets on the favorite, but I'll bite. Despite being 4-1, New England has looked beatable this year, squeaking out close wins against Buffalo and Baltimore. Despite losing to the Rams, San Diego still has the #1 overall defense, based on yardage. Special teams has been the biggest issue for San Diego, but it has really been on the players in my opinion, not the coaches... There isn't a whole lot a coach can do about a blocked punt. The good news is that players can be yelled at and mistakes corrected, and the Chargers will figure this out. The Patriots only have an average punt return unit, though they're near the top on kickoff returns (#2). Nonetheless, this is virtually a must-win for San Diego at home, and I'll bite on the -2.5. The Chargers win this one.
NEW ORLEANS -13.5 over Cleveland
Well this line looks familiar, doesn't it? The Browns are again on the road, again starting Colt McCoy, and again are 13.5 point dogs. And again, I'm taking the favorite. Things only got worse for the hapless Browns after they lost two wide receivers to injury after some devastating hits. The loss of Joshua Cribbs is a huge blow to the return game as well, and will only hurt starting field position for Cleveland. New Orleans FINALLY put together a solid game last week and looked a bit like the 2009-2010 champions. Chris Ivory had a big day on the ground (158 yards) and Brees had a pedestrian 263/3/1. The defense didn't let Tampa score until it didn't matter. Most of this analysis is identical to what I said last week about the Browns-Steelers matchup, so I won't bother rehashing. In brief, the Browns got worse from week 6 to 7, the Saints got better, and the Browns will continue to provide easy covers and knockout/survivor pool picks for all. The only thing that can derail this pick is the Madden curse, and if the Saints somehow lose this game, I'm sure you'll be hearing about that.
KANSAS CITY -9 over Jacksonville
This line has been bouncing all over the place, and very well could move again. It's looking likely that Todd Bouman will start, but there's an outside shot that Trent Edwards is healthy enough to play. If you watched the Monday Night game, you'll agree with me when I say it doesn't matter who starts. Jacksonville looked AWFUL on MNF. Down 23-3 to start the 4th quarter, the Jaguars didn't even try to win; MJD ran the ball virtually the entire drive, took 8 minutes off the clock, and the Jags ended it with an interception in the endzone. They gave up. They literally gave up, down by 20 with a full quarter to play. The fans didn't like it and I wonder how the players felt about it, because anyone with a shred of competitive spirit (and obviously pro football players are competitive people) would be extraordinarily angry about giving up before a game is over. Now they're coming off a miserable performance, coming off short rest, and are facing the best rushing offense in football. The Chiefs will dominate this game. They'll be able to put 8 or 9 in the box against Jones-Drew, just as Tennessee did, and I expect a similar score. You may have to wait until Saturday to get a line on this game, but bet it. I'm left wondering if that uninspired performance is the beginning of the end for the Jags this season.
DENVER -8 over Oakland
The money has been going on the Broncos steadily this week. The opening line was 6.5, and we're up to 8 on Thursday. Similarly to the Jax-KC game, it doesn't really matter who the QB this week; Boller and Campbell are both miserable choices. Campbell was an astonishing 8/21, for 83 yards and 2 INTs, and allowed the 0-5 49ers to get their first win of the year. There was a good bit of preseason buzz about Oakland this year (I myself bought into it), but it's officially gone now. Mile High (yes, I know it's not Mile High anymore... but Denver will always be Mile High) is a tough place to play. The only good news for the Raiders is that McFadden may return and given them a nice 1-2 punch with Bush. The Broncos are allowing a generous 127.7 YPG on the ground and that does concern me, but I look for them to focus on stopping the run since the Raiders passing game poses no threat. Moreover, a healthy Knowshon Moreno will help get the Broncos offense going and the Raiders are ranked 30th in run defense. This isn't quite a lock, as I can see the Raiders 8th ranked passing defense slowing the Broncos down enough to stay within a TD, but I'd rather bet on Oakland having another pitiful week from its quarterbacks. Take the Broncos, cross your fingers, and hope they don't give up any big plays.
Pittsburgh -3 over MIAMI
In Miami's three wins this year, they've rushed for 132 yards, 127 yards, and 150 yards. In their two losses, they've rushed for 84 yards and 92 yards. Since making the wildcat offense all the rage, the run game has dictated Miami's success. Simply put, when they run well, they win, and when they don't, they lose. This week, the Dolphins face the Steelers top-ranked rush defense and I'm going to bet on that trend. Chad Henne is not quite at the point where he can beat teams by himself, though he's looked good at times. The Dolphins are only slightly above average defensively, ranking 16th against the run and 12th against the pass. This game could be close and Miami may provide some fight and maybe even hold a lead at some point, but they're not going to win this game. And if they're not going to win, I'm taking Pittsburgh minus a field goal. The worst I see hear is a push. Big Ben now has a game under his belt and while he didn't look particularly rusty last week, I can only imagine he'll improve this week as his season just started. This is a fairly easy pick this week and I think Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and New Orleans make for a solid 3-teamer.
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