TRG: Over/Under - AFC West

Next up in my over/under posts leading up to the season is the AFC West. Kansas City was a surprise winner last year, though they're not getting much love this year... The Chargers are heavy favorites, with bettors abandoning all hope for Denver and Oakland. Lets take a look at the numbers.
Note: Due to my liking the lines on KC, SD, and Oakland, I've decided to stake 3 units on all of them. Still adds up to 10 units, to make sure each division has the same weight.

The Broncos' defense needs Von Miller to be huge this year.

Denver Broncos UNDER 5.5 (1 Unit)
New coach John Fox leaves one miserable team and gets hired by another. The Broncos defensive line is already in trouble with injuries, and while Von Miller may very well help their pass rush, they are still lacking talent in both the front seven and the secondary. Retaining Orton is probably best for the offense, but Denver still only finished 4-12 last year, despite Orton's surprising season. The schedule looks tough this year, as the AFC West is facing the AFC East and NFC North. Wins will be hard to come by, but if you can pass the ball in today's NFL, you'll manage to win some games. I feel like the Broncos will be right around 5 or 6 wins, so this line is tough. I'll take the under, but only for 1 unit.


Kansas City Chiefs OVER 7.5 (3 units)
I'm not exactly sure why so many experts are down on the Chiefs. While the schedule is tough, the Chiefs are loaded with young talent. They finished last season at 10-6, sporting the league's 14th ranked defense and 12th ranked offense. While Matt Cassel isn't the trendiest of QBs, he has at least proven to be an effective game-manager at this point. Jamaal Charles is one of the best backs in the league and is still running behind a decent offensive line. Clearly ahead of division rivals Denver and Oakland, the Chiefs should be able to get at least 4 division wins this year. Finding 4 more wins on their schedule isn't too hard to imagine. This line is one of the better bargains out there in my opinion, so I'll stake 3 units on it.

Darren McFadden can run, but it won't be enough to make the Over.

Oakland Raiders UNDER 6.5 (3 units)
This seems like another straight-forward pick to me. The Raiders have spent their off-season watching their most talented players (Nnamdi, Z Miller, to name a couple) leave in free agency, while continuing to over-pay to retain mediocre talent (M Huff). One of the few bright spots on the team is the emergence of Darren McFadden, and he'll again combine with Michael Bush to make a great backfield tandem. The problem is the Raiders still have a mediocre QB (Jason Campbell) and no established weapons at wideout or tight end. They'll see a lot of 8-man fronts this year, and have done nothing to convince me they can come close to repeating last year's 8-8 performance, which included two wins over the very fluky Chargers. They have a feel of a 6-win team at best. I say take the under.

Rivers to Jackson will be a regular occurrence in San Diego this year.

San Diego Chargers OVER 10.0 (3 units)
The Chargers finished 9-7 in an extraordinarily bizarre season for them last year, so this one seems like another no-brainer. Solid off-season moves have added depth to the league's top-ranked defensive unit, and hopefully some of the younger players will help improve special teams performance this season, which was their Achilles' heel last season. On the offensive side of the ball, neither Vincent Jackson nor Marcus McNeil are holding out as they did last season, so there should be some improvement there as well. Easily the strongest team in the division, I don't see how this is anything less than a push; it's virtually unthinkable that San Diego does not make the playoffs this year. If they can avoid their annual early season slump, this one is a lock. Take the over, and SD to win the division isn't a bad bet either.

Chris Johnson agrees to terms on $53.5 million contract

Chris Johnson’s holdout ended in the most predictable way possible. He’s back in the fold 10 days before the regular season starts.
Right on schedule.
Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean first reported and PFT’s Mike Florio can confirm that Johnson agreed to a four-year, $53.5 million contract extension.  $53.5 million is the new money; $30 million is guaranteed. Some of the guaranteed money is for injury, and some for injury, skill, and salary cap.   Part of the guarantee transfers to injury on the first day of a given league year.
In the end, Johnson essentially got the guaranteed money and per-year dollars he was looking for.  The Titans didn’t have to pay him Larry Fitzgerald money or completely break the running back mold.
It’s key to note this is an extension.  Johnson got the guaranteed money he wanted, but the Titans got the average salary they wanted.  The total deal is not over $13 million like we’ve seen reported. You have to factor in what Johnson was set to make in 2011-2012, and add the four new years.  It’s essentially a six-year deal that is closer to $9.3 million a year.
The move gives Johnson enough time to be ready for Week One.
It should also give Adrian Peterson a starting point for negotiations of his next contract.

source:  PFT.com
author:  Gregg Rosenthal

Obama moves Congressional address to NFL’s opening night

In what is being described as a historical rebuff of a sitting president by Congressional leadership, Barack Obama has been blocked by House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio; pictured) from addressing a joint session of the nation’s legislative body on September 7, at which time a presidential debate will be conducted in California.  And so the President has caved, moving the speech to Thursday, September 8.
And that sets up a direct conflict with the commencement of the 2011 NFL regular season, with the Saints facing the Packers at Lambeau Field that same night.
It remains to be seen whether NBC will cover the speech in lieu of the game, which is scheduled to begin at 8:30 p.m. ET.  If ABC, CBS, and FOX all choose to broadcast the address and NBC opts to send any interested members of its audience to MSNBC and/or CNBC, the ratings for the NFL opener could go through the roof.

source:  PFT.com
author:  Mike Florio

Troy Aikman wonders what he’d do if he saw Skip Bayless

Fifteen years ago, Skip Bayless wrote a book about the Dallas Cowboys called Hell Bent, and in that book Bayless delved into rumors that then-Cowboys quarterback Troy Aikman was gay.
Time has passed, but Aikman is still so upset with Bayless that he hinted in a recent radio interview that if he were ever to see Bayless again, he might take a swing at him.
“I will tell you this,” Aikman said on 1310 The Ticket, via the Dallas Morning News. “I’ve not seen — I’ve not physically seen Skip Bayless since that time. That was in ’95. And I still kind of wonder what I might do to him when I do see him.”
Asked whether he might have a physical confrontation if he saw Bayless, Aikman said, “Well, I mean, I don’t know. I don’t know.”
Aikman says it still irks him that Bayless used rumors about his personal life to help sell books.
“When a guy like that comes out and, whether it’s intimated or stated, and there’s no substance to that claim, and he’s doing it purely to gain interest in a book, that’s a problem,” Aikman said.
Aikman declined to take the high road in commenting about Bayless, saying, “I’m not so sure Skip’s not gay.” Aikman says he has never read Bayless’s book, but it’s clearly a book that still gets under Aikman’s skin.

source:  PFT.com
author:  Michael David Smith