In fact, in 2014, Payton went for it on fourth down more than twice as often as an average NFL coach would have, when faced with the same circumstances. FootballOutsiders.com analyzed every fourth-down decision in the NFL in 2014, adjusting for the distance needed for a first down as well as where the team was on the field and the score of the game (filtering out times when a coach goes for it because his team is getting blown out), and found that Payton had an Aggressiveness Index of 2.01.
Many statistical analysts say that NFL coaches should be more aggressive about going for it on fourth down, but Payton says he relies less on statistical analysis than on gut feeling. Payton explained during the 2014 season that when the Saints face a fourth down, he usually just makes his decision based on whether he has a feeling that the Saints’ offense can call a play that will work in that situation.
“Fourth downs maybe is sometimes a feel, and a lot of times it is not having a play,” Payton said. “There are some times where you have got a play you cannot wait to run, so you would be more apt to be aggressive.”
Whatever the reasons, Payton feels like going for it more often than other coaches. Analyzing fourth-down data going back to 1989, Football Outsiders found that there have only been eight seasons when a coach was more than twice as aggressive as his peers — and two of those seasons were Payton-coached Saints teams. In addition to the Saints’ Aggressiveness Index of 2.01 last year, the Saints had an Aggressiveness Index of 2.22 in 2007.
Unfortunately for Payton, those also happened to be his only two seasons with a losing record. Payton isn’t afraid to go for it when his team needs it, but he’d be better off if his team didn’t need it.
Source: PFT
Author: Michael David Smith
Photo by David Grunfeld, NOLA-com | The Times-Picayune
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