Friday, December 30, 2011

TRG: Week 16 Recap

It sure wasn't a very merry Christmas for my picks last week. Thank goodness the overs came through, as they were the only wins. The Niners managed to fight off a tough Seahawks team and terrible officiating to at least push, while Denver and San Diego got absolutely thrashed. 2-3-1 on the week. The good news is I feel a bit more optimistic about the lines this week, so hopefully we can start the New Year off right. Here's the recap from last week.


Another disappointing season for Norv. Happy trails.
Denver -3 over Buffalo: Wow, what a total meltdown. In the end, no real damage was done to Denver's playoff hopes, as they can get in this week with a win. After watching Denver get slaughtered by a down-and-out Bills team, though, you have to wonder if the Raiders will end up sneaking their way to an AFC West title.

San Diego +1.5 over Detroit: That game sealed the fate of Norv Turner, and possibly AJ Smith along with him. Another disappointing year for San Diego and it seems silly that they can't find a way to make the playoffs anymore. With such talent at the skill positions, they will be one of the top coaching draws this offseason, assuming Norv is indeed fired. Detroit locked up a playoff spot, and despite the defense struggling with its consistency, the offense could very well surprise someone in the playoffs.

Baltimore -12.5 over Cleveland: The Ravens continue to be one of the most inexplicable teams of the season. They got out to an early lead, and then... nothing. A win is a win, but they have to be concerned about the lack of offense lately. Inconsistent teams have a hard time surviving the post-season, so they better hope they turn over a new leaf in 2012. Cleveland has quietly gone 5-1 ATS over their past 6 games.


SF -2 over Seattle: The spread turned out to be dead-on in this game. I watched the game in its entirety and the Niners definitely seemed to be the victims of some home-cooking from the officials. Regardless, their continued inability to generate redzone TDs is their biggest problem. Seattle has been playing solid football lately, and even has managed to find success on the road. I like them getting the 3 points this week.

Drew Brees etched his name into history.

NO/ATL OVER 52: The Saints offense continues to roll and the overs continue to be easy. Brees gunning for Marino's single season passing record definitely helped. Atlanta strikes me as the Baltimore of the AFC. They look great some weeks, and not so great the next. With a first round playoff matchup against the Saints looming, they're looking at a quick exit.

Minnesota/Washington OVER 43: Hoo-ray for bad defense! The over for this one was never in doubt. Minnesota can't stop anyone at this point, and with AP gone after his knee injury, Chicago may have a fighting chance this week. Washington continues to toil in mediocrity, unable to compete against good teams. Perhaps they'll find their QB of the future in the draft.

2011 Stats

Total Record: 48-43-5

Games: 39-34-5
Over/Under: 9-9-0
Home Teams: 17-11-1
Road Teams: 21-23-4
Favorites: 26-22-5
Dogs: 11-11-0
No Spread/Pick: 2-0-0

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