Friday, December 9, 2011

TRG: Week 13 Recap

Well, that's all she wrote for the winning streak. After six winning weeks, week 13 ended the ride with a 3-3 push. I mainly blame the Patriots, who blew a 31-3 third quarter lead and let the Colts cover. It was pretty strange not seeing the Colts get buried at that point, and despite New England's offensive success, I think they're going to have a short playoff run. The Titans/Bills over was also frustrating, given that they put up 27 points in the first half. In any case, the week could have been better and it could have been worse... a push beats losing. Check back tomorrow for my week 14 picks, and here's the rest of the recap.


Dallas -5 over Arizona: Thanks for making me eat my words, Dallas. I'm still not ready to give Arizona too much credit, but that may change if they play SF tough this weekend. The Cowboys continue to be inconsistent and in my opinion, unpredictable. That was a very bad loss for them, and now they have to fight for their playoff lives against the Giants this week.
It took awhile, but CJ2K is finally earning some of that money.

Tennessee/Buffalo OVER 43: As previously mentioned, this was a frustrating game too. After 27 first half points, the offenses began to stall and the defenses upped the ante. Only 13 points came in the second half. Buffalo also fumbled twice in Tennessee territory. Chris Johnson continues to show 2010 form and the Titans have some slim playoff hopes after looking like they were done earlier in the season. Buffalo continues their mid-season collapse, losing their past five in a row, and with a tough matchup against the Chargers, it will likely continue.

WR Pierre Garcon went off against the Pats weak D.
New England -20.5 over Indy: The Colts officially ended their ATS losing streak in this one. I was a bit surprised after the Pats came flying out of the gate in the second half. It seems very un-Belichik like to let a team creep that close near the end of the game, especially after being up 31-3. I don't think it was simply a case of the Pats letting off the gas; they have some pretty big issues on defense. We've seen them exposed in the regular season, and it will plague them come playoff time.


SF -13 over St. Louis: This one went exactly as planned. I said it'd take a few quarters for the Niners to cover, and they went up 16-0 in the third. After that, they never looked back. This has been a completely lost season for the Rams after sustaining an unbelievable amount of injuries. The Niners continue to win and cover, even though the offense hasn't been very impressive. The defense has been paying the bills for SF and they still have not surrendered a rushing TD.

KC/Chicago UNDER 37: Hanie and Palko sure make for one heck of an ugly game. It seemed like any time someone neared the redzone, there was a turnover. These Bears offense has been terrible without Cutler and looked even worse without Forte. The defense is still playing well, so they're a good candidate for another under this week. It's hard to get much of a read on the Chiefs coming out of this game, but the defense looked good again. They may keep it close against the Jets this week.

Tebow time! The controversial QB is 6-1 ATS as a starter.
Denver PICK (+0) over Minnesota: Tebow-mania continues! The 4th quarter was a great shoot-out and of course, Tebow comes out on top. Minnesota has a horrendous secondary at this point, so I'm not ready to say Tebow is a great quarterback, but he sure is good at covering spreads. The Broncos are favored at home against the Bears this week and their defense will be a good test for Tebow. Minnesota now has QB Christian Ponder banged up along with RB Adrian Peterson, and they'll be in big trouble if both players are out this Sunday.

2011 Stats

Total Record: 42-35-1

Games: 36-27-1
Over/Under: 6-8-0
Home Teams: 16-7-0
Road Teams: 19-20-1
Favorites: 25-17-1
Dogs: 9-9
No Spread/Pick: 2-0

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