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| LB Ray Lewis may be out, but the Ravens should be fine. |
Ray Lewis isn't looking likely to play tomorrow, and that's been big news, but I think the bigger injury news in this game is WR A.J. Green being doubtful for tomorrow. The Bengals are likely to be missing their most explosive player on offense and the offense already struggles to put up points. The defense is how this team has been competitive, but unfortunately, top corner Leon Hall is out for the season, and will definitely cause some issues in coverage.
I understand any fear of betting on the Ravens this week. They are one of the most unpredictable teams that I've seen, capable of laying an egg at any moment (losing to the Seahawks was a nice, gentle reminder of that). They do seem to play better against better teams, though, so I think they'll pull themselves together this week against the Bengals. The offense is under scrutiny after calling such an odd game last week, and I imagine we're going to see a good dosage of Ray Rice this week in a more balanced offense. The defense is playing well (turnovers were the problem last week) and I expect them to have little trouble containing Cincy if Green is indeed out. I'll give Baltimore another try this week and lay the 6.5.
Buffalo +1.5 over MIAMI
I don't like many of the underdogs this week, but the first thing I think of when betting against the Dolphins is how terrible they are at home. Miami is 1-3 ATS at home this year, and was 2-6 last season. They're on a nice two-game winning streak, but don't forget the competition- Kansas City and Washington aren't exactly the toughest opponents. The Bills may be banged up right now, with both WRs Stevie Johnson and David Nelson on the injury report, but they still have one of the, if not the, most dominant running backs of the season thus far, Fred Jackson. The Dolphins are 10th against the run but only 25th against the pass, so they're going to be in big trouble in F-Jax gets going. Though the Bills got blown out last week in Dallas, I think they've got the potential to return the favor to Miami. I'm not convinced the Dolphins can really slow down the Bills or keep up with them if it turns into a shootout, so I'm taking Buffalo and the points.
Dallas -7 over WASHINGTON
Speaking of Dallas, I sure like them again this week. The offense has really found something with DeMarco Murray at RB. Even with Miles Austin (WR) being out, the Cowboys offense has looked better as Murray has taken over the backfield. DeMarcus Ware has been a force on defense and is second in the league with 13 sacks. They picked up a game on the Giants last week and are now only one game back in the NFC East, and the way they're playing they'll have a great shot to win the division. Romo has stated he's been healthier the past couple weeks, and he showed it last week going 23/26 for 270 yards and 3 TDs. The Redskins will have their hands full on defense.
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| Belichik loves covering these big spreads. Remeber 2008? |
NEW ENGLAND -15 over Kansas City
Kansas City is missing their starting QB, RB, TE, SS, and has their top two CBs questionable this week... So, it's kinda like they're starting their preseason squad! Only that it's week 11, they're on the road, and they're playing the Patriots. I realize 15 points is a massive spread for the NFL, so really there isn't much need for deep analytical thought; the Pats are either going to blow them out or they won't. Given the injuries to the Chiefs, I don't think they stand much of a chance on offense. The Patriots may have a terrible secondary, but they have a chance of looking good against a terrible QB (and last I checked, Tyler Palko doesn't fall under the "good QB" category). After a big win against San Diego, Kansas City is 0-2 ATS the last two weeks and that was before they lost starting QB Matt Cassel. Patriots head coach Bill Belichik isn't known to be merciful, so I think the Pats will cover this spread.
SAN FRANCISCO -10 over Arizona
The Niners are a near perfect 8-0-1 ATS this season and they've done extremely well against Arizona in the recent past. Going back to 2009, the Niners are 4-0 against Arizona, winning three of those games by more than 10 points. The defense is top-notch right now, and though RB Frank Gore is questionable, backup Kendall Hunter has played well in spot duty, averaging 4.8 YPC and he has 2 TDs on the year. Moreover, SF won against the Giants last week after Gore gained ZERO yards on 6 carries.
The real question here is what will the Arizona offense be able to do? They looked bad in a win against St. Louis, but they upset the Eagles last week on the back of two Skelton-to-Fitzgerald TD passes. I've picked against the Cardinals each of the last two weeks and I've been burned. I'm still not ready to believe that offense can accomplish anything against a good defense, and we'll find out for certain this week. If Arizona somehow wins, they will truly have a QB controversy on their hands. If the spread isn't to your liking, I think the Niners are a lock in a teaser.
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| The Chargers need contain Forte or it'll be a long day. |
This is either the game where San Diego unexpectedly puts it all back together and begins their campaign to save their season, or it'll be a knockout blow. After watching the Raiders abuse San Diego's injured offensive line last week, I have no faith whatsoever they will survive the certain onslaught that Chicago is preparing. The Bears crushed the Lions last week, and in the process demonstrated that their defense is still capable of shutting down a high-powered offense. They have to be licking their chops in anticipation of facing a San Diego O-line down two of its starters (LT McNeil, LG Vasquez). Rivers took 6 sacks last week after McNeil left the game.
No one knows what's wrong with Chargers QB Philip Rivers this year and it doesn't look like he's about to figure it out either. He's produced more turnovers than TDs. The offensive is missing its usual explosiveness. The defense looked horrible last week, giving up nearly 200 yards on the ground. That has to be a major concern given they face Matt Forte this week. He's averaging 5.2 YPC and is 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards (869 yards). There are just too many key factors in this game working against the Chargers and I have to take the Bears here. I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago blew them out.
TRG
@ELaurinovics
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