Detroit/Dallas OVER 46.5
I bet you didn't think I'd lead off with an over! While both of these teams rank well statistically against the pass (Detroit is 4th, Dallas 12th), I'm not convinced either team has a good secondary. Detroit has faced three passing-anemic teams (TB, KC, Minn). Dallas hasn't faced much better, going up against NYJ (though they let Sanchez post some big numbers), SF, and Washington. Both of these teams have very good quarterbacks, with Dallas ranked 3rd in passing offense, and Detroit tied for 4th. I'm fully expecting a shootout in this game and I think it'll be an easy over. Both of these secondaries are league-average at best, in my opinion. Dallas may be down Miles Austin, but they'll still be able to move the ball with Witten, Dez, and the rest. Detroit's 23 points were a season-low last week, but keep in mind they scored all 23 in the second half. That offense is explosive. Take this over with confidence.
New Orleans -7 over JACKSONVILLE
The offensive ineptitude of the Jaguars is staggering. Despite the fact that MJD is on pace for his best season in 5 years, they can't score any points. McCown has already been benched and Gabbert couldn't get anything done against the Panthers. Compare that to the Saints offense, who've scored 30+ points in each game so far, (though one TD in week 1 was a punt return), and I don't see how Jacksonville stays within 7. They've yet to top the 16 points they put up in week 1. The Saints may have cut it close against Houston, and Houston may have made their defense look less than imposing, but Houston actually has a decent offense. The Jaguars are getting good and cozy down in that cellar and I don't think they're coming out anytime soon.
Atlanta -4 over SEATTLE
I can't stay away. I probably bet against Seattle more than any other team, but I'm patting myself on the back for avoiding them last week, since they actually managed to cover a game. I'm not willing to give up on Atlanta for some reason, either. Maybe playing in a dome will help them this week. The Falcons o-line has been struggling to protect Matt Ryan, but Seattle is ranked in the bottom half of the NFL with 5 total sacks through the first 3 games (5-way tie for 23rd). The Seahawks defense is performing above expectations, but the offense has been dismal, scoring 17, 0, and 13 so far this year. The Falcons may be 1-2, but they've lost to good teams in Chicago and Tampa Bay. Coming back to beat Philly was a noteworthy achievement as well. They may have burned me last week, but I've got to stick with the more talented team here. They can definitely win by more than 4.
BALTIMORE -3 over New York Jets
I mentioned briefly in my lead-in last week that I thought the Raiders had a shot to go to 3-0 ATS against the Jets and they won outright. New York was gashed for 234 yards on the ground, the most ever during the Rex Ryan era. Mark Sanchez still looks like Mark Sanchez, and for those that don't know, Mark Sanchez does not look like a good QB. Baltimore really laid an egg against Tennessee, but they've won easily against Pittsburgh and St. Louis. With Nick Mangold (C) still likely to be out this week, it's hard to see the Jets ground game improving. The offense isn't built to throw the ball as much as they have in their past two games, and it's shown. With the Ravens experiencing success on both sides of the ball, I can't pass them up to win by a field goal. The Jets D will have to save the day for the Jets to cover, but after Oakland laid down the blueprint last week, I'm looking for the Ravens to exploit the same weaknesses.
New England/Oakland OVER 54
Despite this being the high over of the week, I like it. The totals in the first 3 Patriots games have all been over 54. The Raiders-Jets game went over 54 last week as well, and that was in a game where Oakland ran for over 200 yards. Neither defense is playing well... New England's is obviously bad and while the Raiders haven't been quite as terrible, they did give up 350+ passing yards to Sanchez last week. It's not unrealistic whatsoever to think Brady can approach or exceed 400 yards again. Furthermore, Bill Belichick isn't exactly the most conservative coach when he has a lead, which always makes it easier to bet on the overs in Pats games... The Patriots usually don't take their foot off the gas until the game is well into the 4th quarter. Again, I actually think Oakland has a shot of pulling the upset, but I don't feel like tempting fate and picking them this week. The over seems much safer to me.
Buffalo -3 over CINCINNATI
Why not? The Bills are on top of the world after toppling the Patriots, but a lot of people are calling this a trap game. Buffalo is definitely over-achieving right now, so I understand the sentiment and growing fear that they're going to drop a game; they will, eventually. I just don't think the Bengals are going to be the team to knock the Bills from the ranks of the undefeated. The offensive discrepancy is huge... The Bills are 3rd overall through 3 games, while the Bengals are 25th. The discrepancy in defensive rankings is almost the exact opposite, with the Bengals 3rd and Bills 26th, but I'm not buying the Bengals D... They've faced Denver, Cleveland, and SF. Buffalo is an offensive juggernaut by comparison. Cincinnati took some hits in free agency, biggest loss being CB Jonathan Joseph, and Buffalo will exploit that. The passing game is on fire right now. It may be hard to envision the Bills at 4-0, but I think they'll last one more week without losing, so I'm willing to give a field goal.
TRG
@ELaurinovics
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