TRG: Over/Under - NFC South

One of the best looking divisions this year, the NFC South, is next. Atlanta and New Orleans have both had what I think are tremendous off-seasons, and both enter the year as Super Bowl contenders. Tampa Bay is an extremely young team with promising talent, while Carolina rounds out the division entering the year in the middle of a complete rebuild.


Atlanta Falcons OVER 10.5 (2 units)
This is a difficult pick to me because Atlanta has such a difficult schedule... Chicago, Philly, Indy, Green Bay, Houston... And then New Orleans and Tampa twice a piece on top of that? It's because of that schedule that I won't stake more than 2 units on the over, but I actually think Atlanta has the talent to pull it off. I love Atlanta's off-season moves this year. Julio Jones and Harry Douglass look great and should help lead Matt Ryan's pass-heavy attack this year. The defensive line was bolstered with the signing of Ray Edwards, and the secondary is looking solid with Dunta Robinson, Brent Grimes, and recently signed Kelvin Hayden. The Falcons have the makings of a legitimate Super Bowl contender, so I've got to go with the over.

Julio Jones, WR, ATL, is a rookie to watch this year.

Carolina Panthers UNDER 4.5 (3 units)
The poor Panthers are once again projected to finish among the cellar-dwellers. The offense and the defense have been terrible in the preseason, and the Panthers even cut DE Everette Brown, a 2009 second round pick, which cost a 2010 first round pick in trade. That is not a positive sign for franchise, as poor drafting over the years have left them with little talent at this point in time. Cam Newton does not look like a NFL quality passer yet, and the defense looks incapable of putting up much of a fight. Playing in such a strong division, no wins will come easily for the Panthers. It'll be a long season.


New Orleans Saints OVER 10 (4 units)

Expect to see a lot of this from Drew Brees.

This pick is very straight-forward: I don't think there is any way the Saints will finish the year worse than 10-6. Most of the arguments I made for Atlanta apply here as well. The Saints really beefed up their defensive line in the draft and by signing Aubrayo Franklin. The offense added an explosive element by trading up to draft Mark Ingram, and free agent Darren Sproles compensates well for the loss of Reggie Bush. With one of the league's top quarterbacks, it's hard to imagine the Saints losing 7 games. I think this line is an absolute bargain, and it's one of my personal favorites out of the entire NFL. Taking the over should result in no worse than a push.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 8 (1 unit)
I think Tampa Bay is one of the most promising, young franchises in the NFL right now, but I have doubts about their ability to overcome such a tough schedule. The NFC South is facing the NFC North and AFC South this season, and that create several tough games for Tampa Bay. The division alone will be tough enough and I have a hard time seeing the Bucs finishing better than 2-4. They finished last year with the 17th ranked defense and 19th ranked offense, but I don't think they'll improve on their numbers much this year. The team really looks to be another season or two away to me, and I'm willing to chalk up last season's 10-6 finish as a fluke. That being said, I don't feel confident at all in this pick, hence the 1 unit.


TRG
@elaurinovics