TRG: Over/Under - AFC South

Breaking news tonight as I work on this post, Peyton Manning is possibly out 4-5 weeks, and all of the sudden the Colts are off the board. We'll have to keep an eye out to see if they come back on before Sunday, but it's possible they may be left off entirely with Peyton's immediate future unclear. In any case, the bandwagon for Houston winning the AFC South is going to get a lot bigger.


Houston Texans OVER 8.5 (4 units)

Arian Foster is the focal point of Houston's powerful offense.

The defensively challenged Texans were a big disappointment last year, and I can understand those who don't want to believe that the defense gets fixed in one off-season. Nonetheless, I think it's safe to say it didn't get any worse. Jonathan Joseph should at least stop the bleeding in the secondary, and 1st round pick J.J. Watt has demonstrated ability to be an effective pass-rusher in the preseason. The offense should be one of the top in the NFL this year, as last season's emergence of Arian Foster truly gave them a new dimension. He should continue to dominate this year, making the Texans difficult to stop. With Indy looking all the more vulnerable, the stage is set for Houston to take over in the AFC South this year, making the over in this one a pretty easy pick.

How long is Peyton out, and how will the Colts survive?

Indianapolis Colts OFF (0 units)
Unfortunately at the time of writing this, the Colts have been taken off the board due to the uncertainty surrounding Peyton Manning's neck. Regardless, the Colts weren't inspiring much confidence in me. The offensive line will continue to be a huge issue, for Manning or Collins, they still don't have a strong running back or run game, and the defense isn't built to win games on its own. If Peyton misses substantial time, the Colts might miss the playoffs completely this year. I say stay away from this one, but the under, if available, is probably the better pick.


Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 6 (3 units)
The Jaguars aren't exactly in good shape right now, and they have a schedule that is without mercy. There's an absolutely brutal stretch from week 6-15: @PIT, BAL, @HOU, @IND, @CLE, HOU, SD, TB, @ATL. Maybe Cleveland isn't that frightening, but Jacksonville had the 28th ranked defense last year, and despite a good free agent addition in Paul Posluszny, the defense is still missing too many pieces. They're going to have a hard time stopping anyone. With Garrard seeming more and more turnover prone and Gabbert looking less than ready, the passing game figures to suffer this year. Moreover, MJD coming off microfracture knee surgery is concerning for the ground game. Backup RB Rashad Jennings was placed on IR over the weekend, so the Jags are extremely thin at RB at the moment. Should be an under.

With his new contract, expectations for CJ will be higher than ever.

Tennessee Titans OVER 6.5 (2 units)
Beneficiaries of two other teams in their division weakening (Colts, Jags), the Titans have a reasonable shot at making the over. Matt Hassselbeck is a serviceable quarterback and will probably figure out how to throw the ball to Kenny Britt every down. Chris Johnson is still in the backfield, so Tennessee won't lack explosiveness on offense. The Titans invested heavily in defense in the draft and have two rookies as starters on their defensive depth chart, which should help a team that need an infusion of talent after finishing 26th overall last year. I'll wager a couple units that they get to 7 wins. They managed 6 last year, and you have to figure that CJ will eventually run for the 2000 yards he keeps promising to run, especially now that he got his contract extension. If he has that great of a season, so will the Titans. It's that simple.