The Rambling Gambler, TRG: Pick 6 - Week 3

Last week woulda/coulda/shoulda been a lot better. There were a couple pretty fluky plays deciding some of these lines, but that's the way it goes. Hopefully next time I'll get a couple of breaks going in my direction.

This week is interesting. A lot of the better teams are on the road, so we're seeing some pretty tight spreads, for the most part. With the dust beginning to settle a little, some good teams are beginning to emerge. The always reliable Patriots are off to a 2-0 ATS start, along with popular preseason playoff picks Detroit and Houston. The Raiders are a surprise 2-0 ATS, and actually have a shot to go 3-0 this week. The Bengals round out the list of 2-0 ATS teams, covering twice as an underdog. Every other team has at least one loss or push ATS. It looks like it could be the beginning of another challenging year.

Here are this week's picks:

Kerry Collins came out of retirement for this?

Pittsburgh -11 over INDIANAPOLIS

11 isn't enough. Indianapolis has been awful in these first two weeks. They've yet to play one of the league's elite teams, but that's about to change. Fresh off a home-opener that featured them shutting out Seattle, the Steelers will get to make a short trip to Indy and have a shot at making it two shutouts in a row. The Colts offense is doomed in this game. I'll be mildly surprised if Kerry Collins makes it through this game in one piece. The Colts offense has done nothing to make me think they'll have any success against the Steelers, and the Colts defense has done nothing to make me think they'll slow the Steelers down. Quite the opposite is true for the Steelers. This seems like an easy one to me.


Baltimore -4 over ST. LOUIS


By now, anyone who has read my column more than once knows that I love betting against the NFC West. Last week, all 4 NFC West teams lost straight-up. Against the spread they were 1-2-1, with Arizona the lone cover in their loss to the Redskins. The Niners blew a lead and were lucky to push against the Cowboys. The Seahawks were shutout. The Rams offense couldn't get it done and they lost 28-16 to New York. The Rams are still suffering from injuries at multiple positions and RB Steven Jackson is unlikely to play in week 3. While Baltimore may have shocked everyone with a bad loss to Tennessee last week, I think they're a good bet to rebound against the 18th ranked offense and 20th ranked defense through two weeks. The Ravens are good enough to have a chance at covering this even if they do struggle again this week. Baltimore keyed on stopping Chris Johnson last week and the secondary gave up 350+ yards passing. The Rams are lacking any real playmakers on offense right now, though, so I fully expect the Ravens defense to keep the score low. On the offensive side, either Flacco, Ray Rice, or both will have enough success to get the Ravens into the endzone a few times. Should be another easy one.


SAN DIEGO -14 over Kansas City

Fumbles aside, Tolbert and Mathews are going strong.

If you ever wanted to see a definition of the phrase "decimated by injuries," here's your chance. The Chiefs have suffered devastating injuries over the past few weeks, losing key players Tony Moeaki (TE), Eric Berry (S), and Jamaal Charles (RB) for the entire season. Detroit completely annihilated the Chiefs last week, winning 48-3. The Chiefs stunned the Chargers last year, beat them outright in the opener, but this year's injury-depleted team doesn't have much of a chance. San Diego may have lost last week, but it was in large part due to critical turnovers. If you can look past those turnovers, the offense actually had a solid day and the defense managed to stop Brady enough times to stay in the game going into the 4th quarter. Just like Baltimore, San Diego has a nice rebound opportunity here. The Chiefs have been outscored 89-10 in their first two games. That's a good enough trend to keep betting on.


San Francisco +2 over CINCINNATI


This line is moving early after opening at 2.5. The Bengals may be 2-0 ATS right now, but they don't deserve to be favored. Denver was aggressively stopping the run and forced Dalton to throw. He responded with 332 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. It wasn't enough to overcome the Broncos though, with the Bengals going down 24-22. The Niners bring a tougher defense to the table, currently leading the NFL in rushing yards allowed, surrendering only 109 yards on an average of 2.5 YPC. The Bengals are going to struggle to run the ball effectively and that will make it harder on the passing game. Throw in the fact that Jerome Simpson is very unlikely to be available after having 8.5 pounds of marijuana delivered to his home (the Bengals never cease to impress) and things are looking pretty bleak for the offense. San Francisco may be struggling to run the ball and somehow still have Alex Smith at QB, but they showed something last week taking Dallas to OT. The defense is good enough to win games. This one is very winnable.


Atlanta pick (0) over TAMPA BAY


I'm always a little leery of lines that immediately jump out at me as odd, but I can't figure this one out. The Bucs needed a 4th quarter rally to get past Minnesota. It's great that they did, but that doesn't change the fact that they were downright terrible for 3+ quarters. The Falcons may have needed to knock Vick out of the game to get the win last week, but the offense looked good racking up 35 points. The defense struggled, but Josh Freeman isn't Michael Vick and LaGarette Blount isn't LeSean McCoy. It was a huge win for the Falcons and they'll keep it rolling this week. If you thought Atlanta was going to win the division before the season started, trust yourself here. The Falcons are much more talented than Tampa Bay, and it will show in this game.

It should be a big day for CJ and the Titans come Sunday.

TENNESSEE -7 over Denver


I felt the need to pick another home team here this week and I think the Titans are set to cover this one. After a slow start against the Jags, they completely surprised the Ravens last week, winning 26-13. Though Chris Johnson was held to 54 yards, the passing game came to life and Hasselbeck threw for 352 yards. The defense was solid all around, holding the Ravens to 45 yards on the ground and 197 yards through the air. Moreover, the Broncos defense has given up a whopping 131 yards per game over the first two, so this is looking like it'll be Chris Johnson's first big performance of the year. Don't sleep on the Titans. Hasselbeck needs to prove he can still be consistent, but the QB situation is much better than last year. The defense is a good one, and Britt and Johnson are two great offensive threats. I don't think last week's win over Baltimore was a fluke.


TRG
@ELaurinovics