The Rambling Gambler: Over/Under - NFC West

Welcome back to football, everyone! The season officially opens in less than two weeks, and now is about the time to get those season-long picks in. Just like last year, I'll be going around every division in the league and measuring their prospects of going over or under their projected regular season win total.
More importantly, I'm making a few changes from last season's predictions. Instead of simply giving a pick for each team, I'm going to weight my picks this year; 4 units for my top pick in the division, and 1 for the worst, with 2 and 3 being in the middle. This will make results a little bit more meaningful and help emphasize which teams I think are a bargain this year.
Last year was survivable, as I went 18-14 overall for about 56%. Again, with the introduction of variable units for each pick, hopefully this year will yield an improved outcome.
To start, lets take a look at the NFC West.


Arizona Cardinals OVER 6.5 (2 UNITS)
The NFC West is shaping up to be one of the worst divisions in football again. To me, it's looking like the Rams and Cardinals are on a different plane than the Niners and Seahawks. With the latter two teams lacking a viable quarterback, the unproven Kevin Kolb is immediately the second-best QB in the division at worst, with only Sam Bradford as any real competition within the division. The Cardinals have looked good in the preseason, but no NFC West team is without faults. Arizona's defense was shaky last year, and though they've drafted rookie Patrick Peterson, they traded away Dominique Rogers-Cromartie when they acquired Kolb. However, they managed to go 5-11 last year with arguably the worst trio of QBs in the league, so it's hard not to imagine the presence of Kolb improving them by at least a few games. The Cards could quite possibly start the season 3-0 (CAR, @WAS, @SEA), and with potential cupcakes (CLE, @CIN) on the schedule at the end of the year, along with a soft division, I like their chances of making the over.


San Francisco 49ers UNDER 7.5 (1 UNIT)

It will likely be another long year for Alex.

Hard to pick a team starting Alex Smith with a rookie backing him up to make 8-8. The first team defense has looked strong in the preseason, however, and with a young offensive line, it's possible the team may develop enough to overcome the deficiencies at QB, though I highly doubt they are capable of winning the division. I project the Niners to finish third or fourth in the NFC West. I'm only willing to stake 1 unit on them, though. I feel this team may end up being highly unpredictable from week to week, given the amount of youth on the roster. The defense and running game may be good enough to steal some wins in the division, too, making this a dicey pick, in my opinion.


Seattle Seahawks UNDER 6.0 (4 units)
Seattle looks like a lock for 4th place in the NFC West. Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst both look far from starting caliber QBs. Having invested several draft picks into the offensive line over the past two years, I'm not surprised people are speculating that the 'Hawks are waiting for Andrew Luck to show up. With holes at virtually every spot on both sides of the ball, I project Seattle to be among the worst teams in the league. Under 6 looks like a push at worst. The NFC West faces both the NFC East and AFC North this year, so I don't expect may wins outside of the division for the Seahawks either. This is a rebuilding year. They are also negatively impacted by the rule changes to kickoffs, as RB Leon Hall was a dynamic kick returner last season.


St. Louis Rams OVER 7.5 (3 Units)

Can Bradford bring the Rams a division title this year?

The Rams are the team with the most promising near-term future in this division. The off-season was highly productive, as they filled holes in the draft, spending picks on pass rushers and receiving weapons for second-year QB Sam Bradford. They were also active in free agency, adding depth to several positions (RB, Safety, to name a couple) across the roster. I've liked what they've done to improve, and given the fact two of their division rivals have very questionable QBs, they should be in contention at the top of the NFC West with Arizona. The Rams lost 4 games last year by 4 points or less while finishing 7-9 with a rookie QB at the helm. They should definitely get to at least 8-8 this year, and quite possibly the playoffs.


Summary
Arizona, Over 6.5, 2 units
SF, Under 7.5, 1 unit
Seattle, Under 6, 4 units
St. Louis, Over 7.5, 3 units

TRG
@elaurinovics