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By Erik Laurinovics, for The Football ERA
Now THAT was a crazy week of football... A stadium roof collapses, the Lions beat the Packers, and Houston had an incredible comeback loss on Monday... Arizona provided quite a shock and it figures the Broncos would be the first team to lose their first game with an interim coach. That 49-29 blowout they dropped on the Chiefs in week 10 sure seems like a long time ago.
Anyway, it appears my picks are not suited well for this crazy type of football environment. Unfortunately for me, that hasn't been a shortage of these crazy games, and it's made my season a lost cause. The hope of salvaging this season is officially gone as I now stand at 31-51-2. With only three weeks left, I can't get to .500 even with a flawless run. Hopefully I can raise the batting average a little bit in the remaining weeks and make the year a bit more respectable... If nothing else, I'll give it another go in the playoffs. Anyway, on to the recap!
Week 14 Recap
Losses
Tampa Bay -2 over WASHINGTON: Tampa tried to lose this one, but managed to find a way to win and not cover instead. Too many field goals and two bad fumbles.
Denver -4.5 over ARIZONA: Ok, that had to be unexpected for everyone. Sure, maybe someone picked the Cards to win but 43-13? Really? Green Bay -7 over DETROIT: Upset of the year? The line wasn't the biggest, but I didn't think the Lions had any shot to win that game. More shocking was that Rodgers played deep into the second quarter and the offense still hadn't produced anything.
Cleveland +1 over BUFFALO: When you're a mediocre team, you can't afford turnovers. The Browns had three, they lost a close game.
Wins
NEW ORLEANS -9.5 over St. Louis: That makes the NFC West 2-13 against opponents with a winning record. Are you surprised I'm picking Atlanta this week?
SAN DIEGO -7 over Kansas City: I saw this line go off on Sunday morning at about 9.5, but even that wasn't close. Brodie Croyle was a disaster. The Chiefs are dead without Cassel.
2010 Overall Record: 31-51-2
Week 15 Picks
Atlanta -7 over SEATTLE
If you've followed my posts throughout the season, you knew this pick was coming. I've been living off these NFC West picks the past few weeks and I don't see any reason not to pick this one.
*NOTE: The Rams-Chiefs game also falls under this theory, but as I'm drafting this on Tuesday, I am unable to pick the Chiefs until the QB situation is certain. If Cassel is in, I say go for it. SF-SD would fall under this too. As much as I like SD to win, I'm weary of the spread.*** The Falcons are looking their best at the right time of year. Seattle, on the other hand, is not, as the Niners handled them fairly easily last week, leaving the NFC West completely up in the air (any of the 4 teams could still win the division). As for Seattle's much-touted home record, they are a respectable 4-2 at home ATS this year. The two losses, however, were predicted by the "any good team against the NFC West" theory. I look for Atlanta to control the ground game, just as they did against Carolina. Seattle ranks 20th against the run and 30th against the pass, so Atlanta can take advantage of any run-heavy defense. There are too many holes in the Seahawks defense and the Falcons have too many weapons. Atlanta will cover, either in a blowout or a shootout.
DALLAS -6.5 over Washington
The Cowboys are a red hot 5-0 ATS under Jason Garret. They're 3-2 straight up, which is remarkable given they played NY Giants, Detroit, Indy, NO, and Philly in the past 5 weeks. These Cowboys are getting it done against some of the better teams in the league right now, so I'm expecting big things with the lowly Redskins coming to town. The only previous sub .500 team Dallas faced in the brief Garrett-era was the Lions; Cowboys won 35-19. Moreover, the offense has produced 27 or more points every game during this span. Having lost to the Buccaneers this past week, I doubt the Redskins can score enough to keep up with the Cowboys- Washington only put up 16 points against the Bucs 16th ranked defense. With rumors circulating that Rex Grossman may start (told you it's a crazy year), Washington is a mess right now. Look for the Cowboys to keep it going, and if they can keep it up for the next three weeks, I'm guessing Garrett become the full-time coach next year. I'm not sure if Jerry Jones factors ATS records into his hiring decisions, but I wouldn't blame him if he did.
Early money has quickly gone on New Orleans, as this one opened at 2.5. I'm with the trend. It feels like Baltimore has been making every second half an adventure lately. While they covered on MNF against Houston, I'm not exactly filled with confidence by a team that covers with a pick 6 in OT. The Ravens are 2-3 ATS their past five games, with the two wins coming against Carolina and the aforementioned pick 6. For the season, the Ravens also have a bad home record, going 2-4 ATS. With numbers like these, it's easy to see why there's such an early push on the Saints, especially as they are 3-2 ATS and 5-0 straight up in their past five games. As they haven't been losing, getting a point seems like a bargain. Philadelphia +2.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS
Another huge game this week, this one for supremacy in the NFC East. Both teams are 9-4 coming off solid wins last week. Interestingly, these teams last played each other in week 11, and the Eagles won 27-17. In my mind, not a lot has changed since. The Eagles have gone 5-1 against a tough schedule (Indy, NYG, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit) since Vick returned. The Giants have won 3 straight since that loss to the Eagles, but have done so against relatively poor competition (Washington, Minnesota, Jacksonville).
Both teams are hurting a bit, with New York losing receiver after receiver on offense and Philly losing two defensive starters this past week. With the Giants losing one of their playmakers in Steve Smith, Philly should be able to focus more on slowing that run game (they are ranked 11th against the run). The Giants rank 2nd against the pass and have done a great job in recent games, but they haven't fared well against strong passing offenses. The season schedule thus far has included Indy, Houston, Dallas (twice), and Philadelphia; the Giants have gone 2-3 in those games, with a win against Houston and a win against the Phillips-led Cowboys. As long as the Eagles contain the run game to some degree, I don't think New York can keep up with their offense. Buy this one up to 3 and it looks great.
TAMPA BAY -5.5 over Detroit
Well, there's no way they can do what they did last week again, right? While pretty much everyone knew that Green Bay was dead in the water when Rodgers left the game (their lack of QB depth is astounding), the Detroit defense kept the Lions in this one by shutting the Packers out for the entire first half. It was incredible. Green Bay couldn't establish the run, which wasn't a huge surprise, but the Lions pressured the passer, forced turnovers, and shut that passing game down. However, this being about the only time in the past two seasons that the Lions have done something like this, I'm regarding it as a bit of an anomaly.
The bad news starts with Drew Stanton. While the upset of Green Bay is quite a feat, Stanton's line of 10/22, 117/1 TD/2 INT isn't exactly awe-inspiring. It's rather terrifying, actually. Any shred of offense from Green Bay would have beat the Lions pitiful offensive performance. The bad news gets worse, as this Tampa Bay team feasts on losing teams, and is 8-0 so far in matchups with teams that currently have a losing record.
Barring catastrophic injury, I don't think the Bucs will have much trouble containing the Lions "offense." This will be a slow and ugly game, with Tampa Bay playing a ball control game, kicking field goals, and producing a TD or two. Don't let last week scare you; Stanton is terrible and Detroit got a bit of luck with that Rodgers injury.
San Francisco +9 over SAN DIEGO
Homer pick! I honestly don't think the Niners have much of a shot to win this game, but as a life-long 49er fan, and seeing as I've got my tickets to go to this one, I'm taking my one homer for the year. In all honestly, I'm primarily hoping that San Fran simply avoids getting obliterated. Nonetheless, I figure if I'm going to be there rooting for them, I may as well bet on them too. So, this will be entered as an official pick, but buyer beware on this one... clearly there's not much analysis going on here!
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