Sunday, November 28, 2010

Rambling Gambler: Pick Six Week TWELVE

Ramblings and Gambling

By Erik Laurinovics, for The Football ERA
Because I am out of town and with my family for the holidays, my post is a little more brief than most--but I hope you understand. I still made my picks this week though, so there still here for you to peruse. More importantly, I didn't want to miss a chance to talk about last week's 5 for 6, which was easily my best week of the year. Aside from the seemingly blessed Jaguars (seriously, have you ever seen a luckier 6-4 team? It runs out this week...), everything went right. The goal now will be to keep this momentum going and get to .500 by the end of the season. Getting a winning week was just what the doctor ordered, and it's made that much better when it's followed up by some vacation time. I wish all of you a happy Thanksgiving and good luck with your picks!
Totally awesome week 11 recap:
Cleveland +1.5 over JACKSONVILLE: I was surprised this game was close, but the Browns had this all but locked up. How did they let that happen? Jacksonville is living proof that it is better to be lucky than good.
DALLAS -6.5 over Detroit: So if Wade Phillips was really that bad, how did he last so long in Dallas? The game against the Saints tomorrow should be epic.
NEW ORLEANS -12 over Seattle: The entire NFC West lost ATS last week. It seems like any NFC West team against a good team is a lock at this point.
Green Bay -3 over MINNESOTA: The second biggest self-destruction of the season, behind the Cowboys. Just as I said with Dallas when they fired Phillips, I say avoid Minnesota this week now that Chilly is gone.
Atlanta -3 over ST. LOUIS: The Rams have a bright future, but as previously stated, the NFC West is no match for a good team.
PHILADELPHIA -3 over NY Giants: It looked like Philly was going to run away with this one, but the Giants fought back. The Eagles look like the team to beat in the NFC at this point.
2010 Overall Record: 23-41-2
Week 12 Picks:
NEW YORK GIANTS -7 over Jacksonville
I don't think the Jaguars have enough luck to pull this one out. They've got to be the worst 6-4 team I've seen in awhile. The depleted receiving corps for the Giants shouldn't matter too much as their 5th ranked rushing attack has a nice matchup (the Jags are 19th stopping the run). If nothing else, I'm bound to get one right if I bet against Jacksonville long enough...
Kansas City -1.5 over SEATTLE
The Chiefs have run over the NFC West so far, beating SF 31-10 and Arizona 31-13 (and both TDs in each game were literally last second, garbage time TDs). I've made it obvious that I have no respect for the NFC West this year, and I expect Kansas City to beat the Seahawks and the Rams, too. In their last 5 games, the Seahawks have beat Arizona twice. They've lost the other 3 games by 15 points or more. What looked like a strong run defense early in the season has been gouged and dropped to #13 overall. If you're paranoid, by a half point and make it a 1 point game. The Chiefs should win this easily.
HOUSTON -6.5 over Tennessee
Houston -6.5 over Rusty Smith or some QB signed off the street? Sure, I'll give that a shot. The Texans manged to cover against the Jets and desperately need a win. With the QB situation being what it is, I don't seen Tennessee exploiting Houston's fatal flaw (their miserable secondary). I'm thinking that will let the Texans key on CJ and keep Tennessee under wraps.
Philadelphia -3.5 over CHICAGO
I see no reason to jump off the Michael Vick bandwagon yet; his ability to run at any time is creating a ton of opportunities for the offense. Who wants to take someone out of coverage to spy the QB when Jackson and Maclin are out there? Moreover, the Eagles have the 9th most sacks so far this year (26) and the Bears have allowed a league high 37 (!) sacks so far. The Bears defense has been solid as of late and is capable of winning games, but I don't think they'll be able to generate enough offense of their own to beat the Eagles. Buy a half on this one and I don't think you'll do worse than a push.
Green Bay +2 over ATLANTA
Shortly after I picked Baltimore a couple of weeks ago, a friend of mine pointed out that Falcons have a very strong record at home over the past two seasons... They're 11-2 straight up and 9-4 ATS. That is a bit daunting to bet against, but the Packers have the tools on offense to take advantage of the Falcons 24th ranked pass defense. I look for Rodgers to have a big game and keep the Pack in the mix for best record in the NFC. This game will likely be close and Green Bay looks great in a teaser. They look good enough at +2 for me as well.
San Francisco pick (0) over ARIZONA
In what is shaping up to be the ugliest MNF game of the year, someone has to win. Despite getting shutout last week, the Niners at least have some measure of hope with Troy Smith at the helm, going 2-1 while he's started. Arizona, on the other hand, has lost 5 straight games since their bye week and has lost the last two by 18 points. The fact that San Francisco lost left tackle Joe Staley and couldn't run the ball last week is worrisome, but given the fact the Cardinals defense is 27th against the pass and 28th against the run, the Niners should find some way to create offense and win what will likely be a low-scoring affair.
One of my Thanksgiving traditions is a parlay of all the NFL games for the day. This won't count towards the official picks as I didn't like these games enough to make them part of my Pick Six, but I can't stop a tradition!
Patriots -7
Cowboys +4
NY Jets -9


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