Thursday, November 4, 2010

Rambling Gambler: Pick Six Week NINE

Ramblings and Gambling

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By Erik Laurinovics, for The Football ERA
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Two for six, all right, a good week! Or not. It seems like the end of this won't come until week 17. Nonetheless, I'll continue on and try to provide the occasional good pick. This week doesn't seem as painful by virtue of picking two 5 point dogs and a 1 point favorite. Of course that isn't true, as a win is a win and a loss is a loss... but perhaps I'm just trying to make peace with such an awful season. I finally got myself to bet against Green Bay, and then they decide to beat the Jets. New Orleans finally decided to play some football. It was week 8 and there were still plenty of surprises, and I'm sure plenty more await this week. I'll root for picking over .500... That would be a great surprise!
 
Here are the results from last week:
 

LOSSES
 
NEW YORK JETS -5.5 over Green Bay: I bet with my head and not with my heart on this one, and it burned me. Both the Packer defense and mother nature stepped it up to shut out the Jets.
Minnesota+6 over NEW ENGLAND: That Randy Moss trade doesn't look so good anymore. With Percy Harvin hurting and Randy Moss gone, the offense will struggle. They need Sidney Rice.
Pittsburgh -1 over NEW ORLEANS: Either the Saints had a good day or the Steelers had a bad one. Pittsburgh was simply out-played this game.
Houston +5.5 over INDIANAPOLIS: The Houston offense looked lost in the first half and lost this one. The defense did their part to keep them in it, holding the Colts to 10 points on offense in the first half.


 
WINS
 
ST. LOUIS -3 over Carolina: Solid performance from the Rams and this was never close. This team is scrappy and a bit better than people think.
OAKLAND -2.5 over Seattle: I told you they wouldn't cover two in a row on the road.
 
2010 Overall Record: 14-32-2
 
 
Bring it on, week 9.
 
 
New York Jets -3.5 over DETROIT
 
Detroit beating Washington is nice and may get some people to pay attention and rate them a bit higher in their power rankings, but they're not quite ready for the Jets. These teams are complete opposites on the ground. The Jets rank #3 running the ball and #4 at stopping the run; Detroit, conversely, ranks #30 rushing and #27 stopping the rush. If the Jets control the trenches, and it looks like they easily should, they will control the game. Calvin Johnson, AKA the Lions offense, will be covered by Revis and Cromartie. I'm not sure if they, or anyone, can shut Megatron down, but you've got to figure they'll at least do a better job than the Lions most recent foes.This line looks to be an overreaction to Detroit pulling an upset and the Jets losing as a favorite in the same week. What would this line have been two weeks ago? Certainly not 3.5. Stafford is back, but filling up the stat sheet with touchdowns doesn't mean he had a great game. He finished 26/45 for 212 yards and 1 INT. Doesn't look so pretty without the 4 TDs in it. The aforementioned 30th ranked rushing offense probably contributes to those passing touchdowns as well. Sadly for Lions fans, they are not in store for a winning streak. The Jets will come to town, bring the Lions back down to earth, and cover.
 
 
Miami +5 over BALTIMORE
 
Miami has been a fantastic road team this year, going 4-0 ATS, and to me that makes the Dolphins +5 immediately appealing. Furthermore, aside from the blowout loss to New England, they've kept every game within 8 points, win or loss. The Ravens are coming off a bye this week, but have not done well against the spread at home, going 1-2 so far. Statistically, these teams are very close. Offensively, Miami ranks 13th and Baltimore 14th. On defense, it's 8th and 10th, respectively. Both teams range from average to slightly above average across the board. Again, I don't see a reason not to take Miami +5.
While people will point to the fact that Baltimore is coming off a bye week, lets not forget that they almost gave the lowly Bills their first win... The Ravens escaped winning 37-34 in OT, after being up by 11 with the ball on the Buffalo 10 in the 4th quarter. The week prior, Baltimore blew a 10 point 4th quarter lead to lose in overtime to New England. Maybe the Ravens fixed their 4th quarter issues in the bye week, maybe not. Miami is a bit tougher team than people think- their last 3 games have been against Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. The Dolphins finished 2-1 straight up and 3-0 ATS during that run. I'm not sure if I'm ready to pick them as a straight-up upset, but I think this is a field goal game.
 
 
GREEN BAY -8 over Dallas

 
Dallas looked hopeless against Jacksonville. Even worse, they made the Jaguars look good. Heavily criticized for having one of the worse secondaries in football, the Jags easily beat one of the most loaded passing offenses in football (the Cowboys are ranked #3 passing). We are witnessing one of the most disappointing teams I can think of. Preseason talk of a home Superbowl has given way to the virtual certainty that they will miss the playoffs. Bettors, pile on!
Green Bay's defense came up big against the Jets last week. Yes, it was windy and that helped, but they held the Jets to a total of 119 yards on the ground. LT was the leading rusher with 46 yards. Up until that game, the Pack had been yielding 4.7 yards per carry on the ground. Maybe I'm overreacting, but going on the road and stuffing the league's best run unit makes me think that the Packers defense may be recovering some of that 2009 form, when they were one of the best in the league. If so, Dallas is doomed. The defense will not be able to keep Aaron Rodgers at bay the entire game, and an offense that was down 28-3 going into the 4th quarter against the Jaguars isn't going to move the ball against the Packers either. Let go of any notion you have that Dallas is a good team. They aren't. This will be a statement game for Green Bay, and I expect them to cover easily.
 
 
New York Giants -7 over SEATTLE
 
I'm not the only one that doesn't like the Seahawks. This line opened at 5.5 and has already gone up to 7, and it's only Thursday. I'm going to stray from the usual Seahawks on the road, Seahawks at home drivel, as I just took a look at the schedule they've faced so far: SF, @DEN, SD, @STL, @CHI, ARI, @OAK. The Seahawks have beat ONE team with a winning record this year, and that was the Bears. Given how the Bears have looked in recent weeks, it very well may be zero teams with a winning record in another week or two. The Raiders just obliterated the Seahawks on the ground, and there will be no rest for the weary.... The Giants come into town with a 4th-ranked run game. Moreover, the Giants can actually throw the ball, and are currently ranked 8th, and that's where the real mismatch occurs... Seattle is 29th against the pass and they do not have any way of stopping the Manning-Nicks connection. While Seattle is leading the NFC West at 4-3, they're an awful team. The entire NFC west is awful, and the fact that they get to play each other twice a piece means there are undeserved wins all around. The Giants are easily one of the toughest teams the Seahawks face this season and should provide a nice demonstration as to how far behind the best in the NFC West is compared to the rest of the league. This one should be covered by half-time.
 
 
Kansas City +2.5 over OAKLAND
 
Darren McFadden has done a great job making himself noticed the past two weeks, beating up the Broncos and Seahawks to the tune of 331 yards from scrimmage. It's no surprise that Oakland won and covered both of those games. The Chiefs, however, bring something to this game that the Raiders haven't seen much of lately- an offense that can run the ball. Oakland is still very vulnerable on the ground and is currently ranked 26th in rushing defense. This game will come down to who can control the trenches, and the Chiefs have a better line on both sides of the ball. When analyzing close games like this one, another key stat for me is turnover differential, and the Chiefs are ahead in this regard. While they may only have 9 take-aways, they only have 4 give-aways, giving them a solid +5 turnover differential. The Raiders aren't far behind on the differential at +2, but they've produced 10 give-aways, 8 of which are interceptions. Turnovers are always critical, but even more so when both teams are so reliant on the ground game. The Chiefs keep taking care of business this year and as long as they continue to run the ball and limit mistakes, they'll continue to win. I like the moneyline here, but you can always buy the 2.5 up to 3 if you're worried.
 
 
MINNESOTA -8.5 over Arizona
 
Minnesota didn't come through last week and there's now even more pressure on them to win this game. Last week the offense stalled from 3 Favre INTs, but the offensive line and ground game looked good. They need to find a way to minimize the turnovers. Arizona comes in to this one looking like they're in pretty bad shape. Despite the scoring bonanza last week, they lost the game. Derek Anderson is back at quarterback again, and while he was a bit more accurate going 16 for 24, he threw 2 interceptions. The Cards continue to lack offensive chemistry. The defense is no better, as they have one of the worst run stopping units in the league (29th). This will provide a chance for the Vikings to win this game on the ground, which is a good thing at this point as Favre is looking automatic at creating at least one devastating turnover a week.
Speaking of turnovers, Minnesota has a -7 TO differential, with 16 give-aways. The good news is that Arizona is actually worse, with a TO differential of -9 and an astonishing 23 give-aways. That's over 3 per game! As a friend of mine would say, "That's more turnovers than a bakery!" Assuming Minnesota comes out ahead in the turnover battle, the extra offensive opportunities should allow them to cover the spread. The offense will find success establishing the run and should have no problem putting up points. Minnesota is solid defensively at #12 overall and facing one of the worst offenses in the league; the Cardinals are ranked 31st. Everything here points to the Vikings dominating the Cards, and I'm not going to over think this one. Minnesota needs to start winning, this is a game they should win, and they will win. Thumping the Cards will provide great momentum for a very winnable next 4 weeks (@CHI, GB, @WAS, BUF). If you don't like the big spread, this looks like an absolute lock in a 6-point teaser. Personally, I'm fine laying the 8.5.

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