Hold the Obituary: The Patriots Reemerge against Denver

There are many factors that go into a team's successful run for the title; and, of course, luck plays a big role in putting together a string of victories. Stability and continuity have been shown to be an important contributing factor, and some results from the Football ERA bear that out. No matter how stable a situation, talent plays another key role as well of course. And in today's NFL, the free agent market dictates that a team constantly replenish its talent and keep searching for more as free agency and salary cap demands constant change that necessitates constant replenishment and reevaluation of talent. Great front offices and organizations compliment great coaching as well. And great coaching is another key factor for success in today's competitive NFL where it is clearly seen that anyone can win week to week or win the Super Bowl by putting together a sudden run in the playoffs. Both New England and Denver reflect many of these factors---particularly stability, an eye for replenishing great talent, and great coaching and preparation.

New England has managed to get to the Super Bowl many times in the new "free agent era", and great coaching has played a part in their success. Denver has not had the same kind of success as to be be given the term "dynasty" as it is increasingly hard to be considered in today's NFL. But they are one of a handful of NFL franchises that are successful at constantly rebuilding in a short period of time. It doesnt hurt that to do this as other teams with this type of ability have all had stable front office and coaching personel during their downturns. Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Baltimore all come immediately to mind in the AFC---but the last few seasons, Denver has shown remarkable resiliency in rebuilding over and over every year. On the other hand, this has made it difficult to be successful on defense as defense requires on the field experience that takes time to incubate above and beyond execution in practice which can help an offense develop quickly.

The Football ERA has helped provide insights into much of the on-field success and demise of many team's performances in 2008. One thing I couldnt predict is how well the Denver Broncos would do so early in the season given that they have entirely built their offense and defense from the offensive line and the defensive front. The fact that it takes longer to develop the experience that leads to great defensive execution on that side of the ball, Denver has suffered from up and down performances in terms of its win/loss record from week to week. And their performance in New England is a good example of this as the Patriots showed up with focus and intensity from a week of practice that manifested itself in a performance that showed their determination to keep their season from slipping into an abyss in which their detractors were painting them to be falling.

Net Total Off=Rushing+Drives Def=Rushing+Pressure

NE … 1331.64 … 833.15 = 615.25 + 217.9 … 498.49 = 349.375 + 149.115
Den … 143.23 ...... 60.6 = 106 + -45.4 ....... 82.63 = -349.375 + 432.005

++++++++++Denver Broncos++++++++++

The Denver Broncos went through another rebuilding process on both sides of the ball this offseason. They went into the 2008 season opener against the Raiders with a completely new offensive line and defensive front. It didn't hurt to open up the season with an easier schedule as they gelled as a unit in their execution--particularly on offense. Their defense also performed well but has been up and down more recently as their schedule got tougher, and they faced off against tougher opponents. Defense generally takes longer to develop, and the Broncos have yet to show great patience from year to year in building off their previous unit.

Gone from the defensive line are lineman Sam Adams, Amon Gordon, and Simeon Rice among others. Also out of football is former LB Ian Gold. Gone from the offensive line are Matt Lepsis, Chris Meyers, Montrae Holland are gone with Tom Nalen and Erik Pears on the injured reserve list. Center Chris Meyers now starts for Houston, and Guard Montrae Holland is a Dallas Cowboy.

Great coaching and preparation have played a major factor in Denver's early season success on offense as they have undergone wholesale changes on both the offensive and defensive line. On offense they are starting a third year lineman in Guard Chris Kuper, a second year lineman in Right Tackle Ryan Harris, and a Rookie Left Tackle in Ryan Clady. In addition, former Kansas City Chief, free agent acquisition Center Casey Wiegmann has been starting at center for the injured Center Tom Nalen who is still on IR.

On the defensive line, last year's rookie contributer--DT Marcus Thomas, and former New York Jet, free agent acquisition DT Dewayne Robertson are now starting at defensive tackles while former Lion LB Boss Bailey was acquired as a free agent from Detroit to bolster the linebacking corps. Here are the previous week's starting lineups with changes from 2007 and/or previous weeks highlighted in Bold:


Defensive Front:


DJ Williams Nate Webster Boss Bailey
Weeks 1-3------>Jamie Winborn


Ebenezer
Ekuban Dewayne Robertson Marcus Thomas Elvis Dumervil
John Engelberger<--Wks 1-6 Kenny Peterson for Robertson<--Wk 4

Few noticed outside of Denver that the Broncos actually came out Monday Night with a new defensive scheme designed apparently to pressure Matt Cassel in hopes of disrupting New England's passing offense. They picked up a little known safety Calvin Lowry--released by the Tennessee in the summer--in hopes of adding speed and a Bob Sanders like presence in the secondary as they went after Matt Cassel. They unveiled a 3-4 defense for the first time this season and were marginally successful at bringing pressure in their pass rush. Unfortunately they out-thought themselves and didn't faze Matt Cassel as the Patriots simply countered by running the ball right at them and took it to Denver with their rushing attack. Here's what the starting defense looked like for their Week 7 matchup versus the Patriots:

Week 7 Defensive Front vs New England:


3-4 defense-->Jamie Winborn DJ Williams Nate Webster Boss Bailey


Ebenezer Ekuban Dewayne Robertson Marcus Thomas




Offensive Line:


Ryan
Clady(R) Ben Hamilton Casey Wiegmann Chris Kuper Ryan Harris






+++++++++++New England Patriots++++++++++

New England has struggled in 2008 in generating any kind of defensive pressure and consistency before Week 7's Monday Night matchup thus far this season. Despite having a lot of continuity and stability in their starting lineups (with the exception of Tom Brady and injuries in their Running Back corps), they haven't gotten into a groove--much like the beginning season slump seen in both New Orleans and San Diego last season.

It went almost unnoticed that New England successfully rushed the ball against the Broncos on Monday Night with a virtual unknown starting at Right Tackle--Matt Levoir--for the injured RT Nick Kaczur.
Here's how the Patriots matched up with the Broncos on the fronts with changes from 2007 and/or previous weeks highlighted in Bold:

Defensive Front:

Mike Vrabel....Jerod Mayo(R)....Tedy Bruschi....Adalius Thomas


Ty Warren......Vince Wolfork......Richard Seymour




Offensive Line:


Matt Light..Logan Mankins..Dan Koppen..Billy Yates..Mark Levoir(R)

at RG Wk 2-->Russ Hochstein for Yates Wks 1-6-->Nick Kaczur


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