Now THAT was some football! As anticipated, the NFC games were great and both of the underdogs came out on top. That Niners-Saints game has to be one of the best games I've ever watched in my life. Finishing at 3-0-1 last weekend didn't hurt anything either. I mentioned before the playoffs that I tend to struggle, but it seems like I'm dialed in this year. Sitting at 6-1-1 in the postseason so far, I'm in position to have my best postseason ever. Check back tomorrow for my picks on the two games this weekend. Here's the full recap on last week.
LOSSES
None. Feels good to write that!
PUSHES
Baltimore -7 over Houston: This is exactly why I advocated buying the half point. I talked to quite a few people that were burned because they took this line at 7.5. Houston's defense is extremely tough, and they're primed to come back as one of the top units next year. The media has been shredding Joe Flacco this week, but I don't think you can blame the offense for struggling against one of the top defenses in the NFL. He's got a huge opportunity to silence the critics this weekend. Baltimore's offense has to do better against the Pats.
WINS
SF +3.5 over NO: What a game this was! The Niners covered for the majority of the game but that was a heck of a finish to get the win. I did not expect to see Alex Smith step up like that on the final drive. Coach Jim Harbaugh said he saw a bit of himself in Alex Smith before the season started, and it turns out maybe he was right. The Saints continue to struggle on the road. It's sort of a fluky game when you end up with 5 turnovers, but that's two consecutive seasons they've been knocked out by an NFC West team. They can't be happy about that.
NE -13.5 over Denver: That's what happens when an over-achieving team coming off an emotional win plays a team much better than they are. This game was over before the first half. The Patriots have had great success in beating non-winning teams this season, so it'll be an interesting test against Baltimore on Sunday. If New England's defense can slow the Ravens down, they'll be in good shape. The Broncos have an interesting offseason ahead of them. Will they keep Tebow, or do they focus on improving other key positions?
NYG +7.5 over GB: This game was more about Aaron Rodgers having a bad day than the Giants playing well, I thought. Yes, the Giants scored over 30 points, yes, the defense kept the Packers in check, and yes, they had to beat atrocious officiating, but Rodgers was off all day. He missed several throws that would have continued drives or gone for TDs. I don't think the Giants are a bad team by any means, but they'll have their hands full this weekend. The Packers have to be disappointed being the first 15-1 team to not win a playoff game, but they'll be right back at the top of the heap next season.
Photo: Ben Liebenberg/NFL
The Football Earned Run Average is real football analysis of pro football statistics, scores, and handicapping. This special algorithm measures a teams performance at the LINE OF SCRIMMAGE as best as can be done after film analysis with a comprehensive statistical analysis of a team's performance.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
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