TRG: Pick 6 Week 9

The recap is up and it's time for the picks. Special thanks to Shak for making sure we got picks in. It's been up and down, but with back-to-back winning weeks, I think I'll keep it going this week. Here's what I like:

New York Giants +8.5 over NEW ENGLAND


As I mentioned in the recap, the secret is out about the Patriots terrible passing defense. The Giants come into town with the 4th ranked passing offense, and this huge matchup disparity makes me love the points here. Need more? The Giants currently lead the NFL in sacks (26) while the Patriots are ranked 22nd (15). After scoring 30 or more in their first five games, the Pats have managed a total of 37 points in their last two games, combined.
Just like Pittsburgh did last week, the Giants need to control the ball and get in Brady's face when they don't control the ball. Given how these teams have looked, I think NY has a great chance to win this game outright, so I'm definitely happy with +8.5. Even if New England can put up 30 points, I feel like New York will be right there with them.

St. Louis Rams +3 over ARIZONA


It's looking like Kevin Kolb is going to be out tomorrow and that would mean Skelton is in. You should all have fairly terrible flashbacks of the 2010 Cardinals offense when you hear that name. This is definitely the ugly game of the week, featuring the dregs of the NFC West battling it out, but someone has got to win. The Rams completed a legendary upset of the Saints last week, while the Cards are coming off of blowing a 24 point lead over the Ravens. Beanie Wells may have some success running the ball and that may keep Arizona in this game, but I'll take the Rams getting a field goal after last week's inspired win. Skelton makes it feel like a safe choice.


San Francisco -4 over WASHINGTON


The Niners just keep rolling along and Washington is looking like a bigger train wreck every week. The Redskins couldn't have looked any worse last weekend getting shutout by Buffalo. The Bills have the 26th ranked defense (and that's INCLUDING last week) but they looked like the Steel Curtain out there. The Redskins are miserable on offense, unable to establish any consistency at running back or quarterback. San Francisco has the top scoring defense in the league right now and I think Washington is in danger of getting shut out again. The Niners are not exactly offensive juggernauts and very well may struggle to score in this game too, but they'll get points. I'm hoping they only need one TD to do it in this game.

SF/Washington UNDER 37.5


I'm pretty sure this game is going to be the exact opposite of a shoot-out. The Niners have one of the most run-heavy offenses in football (best way to mitigate Alex Smith as your QB) and the 'Skins have a decent secondary, ranked 12th overall. Washington's defense should be able to stack the box and focus on slowing down the run, and if they are even somewhat effective in doing so, I think this will be an under. I'm really expecting a game very similar to last week's; SF will capitalize on opportunities and not much else. Washington probably won't capitalize on much of anything.


HOUSTON -10 over Cleveland


The Browns will be missing Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty, their top two running backs, both expected to be out this Sunday. This is bad news for the Browns offense, and they're another team that may have trouble putting any points on the board. Colt McCoy isn't impressing anyone leading that offense, and there is a complete lack of talent around him. Frank Gore finished last week's game against the Browns with 134 yards and you know that the Texans will start pounding the ball with Arian Foster early and often. Houston has gone 2-0 ATS the past two weeks and they should continue the momentum this week.


Atlanta -7 over INDIANAPOLIS

I think the Colts winning this one would rank right up there with the Rams beating the Saints. The Falcons have had a rough start to the year, but they've also managed to go 2-0 ATS in the last two weeks. Julio Jones will give the offense a nice boost with his return this Sunday. The Colts have obviously struggled all year long, going 2-6 ATS, and are in the midst of a 0-4 ATS losing streak. I've been waiting for Atlanta to put it together all year long and this is the latest week I think it'll happen for them. The schedule doesn't get much softer than this and they still get to play in a dome in Indy. The Falcons have the 7th ranked rush defense and 23rd ranked pass defense, and with Painter being so ineffective, I doubt the secondary will be much of a liability. I'm looking for the Falcons to dominate here, so I don't mind giving the 7.