Pittsburgh -4 over CINCINNATI
This is definitely my favorite line of the week. The Bengals have started to win over some of the talking heads on TV with their 6-2 start, but I'm still skeptical. Here's who they've won against so far:
 |
| Lets see how Andy Dalton (QB) does against the Steelers D. |
Cincy (6-2): @Cleveland, Buffalo, @Jacksonville, Indy, @Seattle, @Tennessee
These games haven't been blowouts, and while the defense has been respectable, the offense is young and has a ways to go. The Bengals have not played a team as good as the Steelers all year long, with the possible exception of SF, and they lost that game. If the Bengals do manage to pull off the upset here, I'll give them some credit, but again, I really don't think it's going to happen. They rank 22nd in total offense while Pittsburgh comes in at 3rd for total defense. The Bengals passing D comes in at 10th, and I don't think that'll be enough to slow down Roethlisberger and company. Take this one with confidence.
Houston -3 over TAMPA BAY
The Texans continue to roll, going 3-0 ATS in the past 3 weeks. Gotta like them giving only a field goal here. Tampa has lost their past two, including last week's post-bye week loss to the Saints. The Bucs simply haven't put together the offense that they had last year and it shows. The defensive line took a hit with the loss of Gerald McCoy and I don't think signing Albert Haynesworth will improve the situation. Houston has been extremely effective running the ball (ranked 3rd) and though their defense has sustained injuries, they are actually ranked 1st in total yards allowed. I think this is a bad matchup for the Bucs on paper so I have no issues giving the 3 points. If you're concerned, take the Texans on the moneyline. I don't think there's any way they lose this game.
Sunday Morning Edit (9am PST): Apparently Grossman is getting the start for Washington today, and as John Beck was the basis for me making this pick, I'm taking it off the board. Switching to Jags -3, as that seems like a relatively safe pick. Indy in now 0-5 ATS these past 5 weeks.
As I said in my recap post, it's going to be hard not to pick against Washington and a small spread. I know I just got burned picking in the ugly game of the week last week (STL-AZ) and I'm tempting fate by picking another ugly one here, but the Redskins offense is atrocious. This is simply a situation where I think it's best to keep betting against them until they prove something has changed. The only "bright spot" last week was Roy Helu and his 14 receptions, but to me that means the QB isn't throwing the ball down field, which is a bad thing for an offense. Miami is far from reliable this year, but the offense showed some life last week. With Reggie Bush looking good and Daniel Thomas healthy, I expect them to have success running the ball. The Redskins are a bit tougher against the pass and will likely contain Matt Moore, but I don't think it will matter. Just like last week, the 'Skins will struggle to put up points.
 |
| Fred Jackson (RB) has been unstoppable this season. |
Dallas/Buffalo OVER 48
It's hard not to like the over in a game featuring two very solid offenses. Dallas is currently 6th overall, and Buffalo 12th. Buffalo's already 27th ranked defense just lost DT Kyle Williams for the season, and I think they're going to have trouble slowing the Cowboys down. The good news for the Bills is that Fred Jackson has been dominant this year and they should be able to get some plays out of the Cowboys 16th ranked secondary. Each one of these offenses is capable of getting a bunch of points, and each one of these defenses has demonstrated the ability to give up a bunch of points. I'm thinking shoot-out in this one. Looks like an easy over to me.
San Francisco/NY Giants UNDER 43
I was considering this one earlier in the week and today's news of Mario Manningham suddenly becoming "questionable" with a swollen knee has sold me. The Giants are without RB Bradshaw, Nicks isn't likely to be 100% coming off his hamstring injury, and now Manningham could very well be gimpy or out. The 49er defense is a good one (8th in total yards allowed) and the Giants struggled to put up points against the Pats horrible secondary last week. As for the Niners, I expect about the same I do every week: some success running the ball, little success throwing the ball, and opportunistic points. I think a team wins this game with 20 points, so I'm going with the under.
 |
| It's probably going to be a rough week for John Skelton (QB) |
Arizona may have toughed it out against the Rams last week (and managed to make a miracle cover), but they are completely over-matched against this Eagles team. Kevin Kolb (QB) is likely out and Skelton didn't show a whole lot last week. Beanie Wells still isn't 100% healthy, and the defense still can't stop anybody. Philadelphia has been inconsistent and given some games away, but despite the mistakes, the Eagles have the 3rd overall offense and 12th overall defense in the league. Coming off last week's loss to Chicago, you have to feel like the Eagles are going to be ready to roll this week. The Giants and Cowboys both have tough matchups, so they very likely will gain some ground with a win. I don't think the Skelton-led Cardinals are going to stop them.
TRG
@ELaurinovics
No comments:
Post a Comment