Happster's Market Report: Week 9 Fantasy Expert

Welcome one and all to Football ERA’s first Fantasy Blog posting! I’m Happster and I’ll be doling out fresh helpings of fantasy advice like it was cool dollops of sour cream on hot enchiladas for the rest of the season…delicious

Food metaphors aside I’ll be attempting to bring you up-to-date advice on the goings on in the NFL and how that will affect your fantasy team.

One of these segments  will be my “Market Report” where I go over which fantasy players are on the rise and which ones are falling like stocks on the fantasy stock exchange. Feel free to make comments below and I’ll do my best to answer them in later postings.

Buying:

Javon Ringer, RB – Tennessee Titans

It’s all but official that Chris Johnson is going to be reduced to a committee member next week and Javon Ringer will be the beneficiary of that move. It’s not really a surprising move considering the production put out by the two running backs over the last few games, and Ringer, while not an all-star, has looked much better than Johnson. Here’s a quick look at the numbers:

Over the past three weeks Javon Ringer has rushed the ball 20 times for 103 yards, an average of 5.2 yards a carry. During that same time period, Chris Johnson has rushed the ball 38 times…for 103 yards, and average of 2.7 yards. Sometimes in football you just have to go with the hot hand and Ringer is going to be the guy. He is definitely a guy worth a waiver add considering Tennessee’s predilection for running the football, although he might not get great numbers right off the bat with the Bengals coming into town next week.

Selling:

Chris Johnson, RB – Tennessee Titans

Ok, so this is completely obvious, but hear me out anyway. Fantasy Football is a game of numbers and percentages. If you want to win, you have to be a little dispassionate, and if you are a Chris Johnson owner, more than likely you heavily invested (Round 1, maybe Round 2 draft pick) in Johnson and your team is sitting two (or five) wins lighter than you think it should be.

Well the bottom line is this: he’s dead weight. You play him every week and he underperforms, he uses up a valuable RB slot and you’re not getting the play out of him that you need to win. So what are your options? You could bench him, but then you are wasting him anyway. You could just keep your head in the sand (or other places) and just keep right along playing him. OR, you could trade him. Now I know that his value is low, and you aren’t going to be getting a lot for him, but it’s Week 8 people, the draft may have well have occurred during the Clinton administration, it’s history, it’s over, move on.

Now that we have reconciled with past, you should look throughout the league for one of three things: Desperate teams with surplus RB’s (a rarity this year), a major Tennessee fan who’s adoration for the Titans will artificially increase Johnson’s value, or the league sucker. I’m not going to go into details about suckers in this post, but I’ll make it an upcoming special. Suffice to say, if you look at every manager in the league and don’t find the sucker…well let’s just say it might be time for some self-evaluation.

Getting back to the trade, it’s time to ship Johnson out and get a RB that you feel will at least produce numbers week in and week out, after all, Johnson is not doing that for you. I hate to say it, but I’d probably trade Johnson for Cedric Benson, straight up, if nothing else, Benson gets the carries.

Reggie Wayne, WR – Indianapolis Colts

It’s an AFC South convention here at the Market Report and this has got to be the most obvious sell advice ever written, but I’ll write it anyway. The Colts are not getting it done offensively and Curtis Painter has different targets in mind when he goes down field. FYI, that target is Pierre Garćon.

Re-read the advice about selling Chris Johnson and apply it to Wayne. If you can.

Penny Stocks:

Penny Stocks are the fantasy players that have more than a better chance than average of failing, but if they do succeed will pay off nicely considering the price you paid for them.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR – Free Agent

I’ll admit, free agents aren’t normally the players you think about picking up for fantasy purposes, but ESPN has reported that the Raiders have brought the fickle receiver in for workouts yesterday and will give him a physical today. Why a bottom-rung receiver for the Raiders would be of interest to the fantasy community might be crossing you mind right now, but here me out. If you can remember back a few years ago, Carson Palmer and T.J. Houshmandzadeh used to play catch pretty well together and they even worked out together this off season during the lockout. Chances are Housh will be pushed into the lineup pretty quick to give Palmer a familiar target while he develops rapport with the other Oakland wide receivers.

Bottom line is he could easily become WR3 material in most leagues and if Palmer gets back to form, could creep up to low WR2 status. A definite waiver add this week. Plus, how cool will you look to your league when you pick up a free agent who ends up producing within a week or two? Can’t discount bragging rights.

Torrey Smith, WR – Baltimore Ravens

Smith has been mentioned before in many fantasy articles after his break out game in Week 3, however, he has predictably not done a whole lot since then. However, he does have some great desperation potential. Watching the Baltimore-Arizona game this week I got an eyeful of Smith racing behind the Cardinals secondary but Flacco either didn’t see him or was unable to connect with him. Hopefully, this gets fixed soon, but it does demonstrate Smith’s potential as a deep threat. The guy could have a long score every game if Flacco can get him the ball.

I see him having a deep WR3 potential during bye weeks because the guy could get you a cool 80 yards and a TD (on two receptions) or he could get you nothing, hey, I did say desperation.

Assets to Avoid:

Tashard Choice, RB – Washington Redskins

I’ll keep this short and simple: First, what does it mean when a running back gets cut from the Dallas Rotation? Second, do you really want anything to do with Mike Shanahan’s running back rotation? I know you were excited when it went down to two after Hightower went on IR but just stay away, you’ll be saner that way.