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By Erik Laurinovics, for The Football ERA
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You always get the biggest surprises right when you think you've figured something out. We had two more shockers this week, with the Raiders upset being the biggest, closely followed by the "Monday Night Massacre." The Chargers were upset as 13-point favorites and while the Jets were only 3.5 point underdogs, I don't think anyone saw the second worst beating in MNF history coming. San Diego and New York are supposed to be two of the contenders in the AFC, and this is widely agreed upon. There is no doubt that the poor level of play is a surprise to everyone, even at this stage of the season. To me, this reaffirms the feeling I have that every week this year, picking games has been akin to traversing a minefield; it seems like there is at least one truly shocking upset a week. I don't really remember seeing anything like this before, and it certainly seems to make things difficult, at least for me. 3-3 last week, and was on the wrong side of both the Chargers and the Jets picks. Figures. Here's the recap.
Week 13 Recap
LOSSES
SAN DIEGO -13 over Oakland: I watched this game and San Diego never had a chance. Oakland outplayed them across the board.
New Orleans -7 over CINCINNATI: I couldn't tell if the Bengals played well or if the Saints were playing poorly.
NEW YORK JETS +3.5 over New England: Oops.
Chicago -3.5 over DETROIT: Oh, they sure made it interesting and probably didn't deserve this one, but a win is a win, for both myself and Chicago.
St. Louis -3.5 over ARIZONA: New get-rich-quick scheme: Bet it all on Arizona! Skelton is starting? Bet it all again!
Dallas +5.5 over INDIANAPOLIS: How 'bout them Cowboys? They are playing great without Phillips. Ironically, the better the play, the more of a waste this season seems with the playoffs already out of the question.
2010 Overall Record: 29-47-2
Week 14 Picks
Tampa Bay -2 over WASHINGTON
Ok, I haven't been on the Bucs bandwagon too often this year, but even I think they deserve a bit more respect than this line. This one jumped out to me as an obvious pick this week, if only from observing both teams play recently; Tampa has looked solid, even in a loss to Atlanta, whereas Washington has looked terrible and lost 4 of of their last 5. Offensively, the Redskins have been good passing (9th) and bad rushing (27th). Unfortunately for them, Tampa is good stopping the pass (7th) and bad at stopping the run (26th). For those of you that aren't fans of cumulative season averages for statistics, take a look at the box scores from both of these teams' games from last week- pretty good reflection of those season averages, right? Defensively, Washington is nothing short of terrible, so it doesn't really matter who they play, the opposing offense will score some points. So how about ATS records then? Washington is 2-2-2 ATS at home so far this season- nothing impressive. The Bucs, however, are an amazing 6-0 ATS on the road! They haven't dropped one yet. Critics of the Bucs say that they haven't beaten a team with a record over .500. Luckily for us, Washington is only 5-7 so I think we're set for a Tampa Bay win and cover.
Denver -4.5 over ARIZONA
To be honest, there really isn't a lot of in-depth analysis for this one. Arizona is awful. They've lost 7 consecutive games, five of which by a 10+ point margin. They can't run (31st) or pass (30th). They've lost all three division games at home, which may not sound bad, but they're in the NFC West. Think about that. It quite literally may be the most humiliating accomplishment of the regular season.
Rookie John Skelton and off-the-street Richard Bartel (who?) are competing to start at quarterback this week. I'm pretty much sold right there. Whoever the quarterback is, they will be inexperienced and will not have a running game to lean on. It should be a pretty easy defensive game plan for the Broncos. I don't think that Denver's offense will get bottled up this week and the Cards don't have any means of keeping up. Should be another blowout in the desert.
Green Bay -7 over DETROIT
I'm not expecting much from the Lions with Stanton at the helm and defensively, they just lost Kyle Vanden Bosch for the year. He was an impact player on a defensive that generally doesn't have a lot of impact in the first place. His loss will definitely weaken the Detroit pass rush and giving Aaron Rodgers more time in the pocket is not a good thing. Even worse, the Packers may have found a serviceable running back in James Starks, who put up 73 yards on 18 carries against the 49ers last week. If they can get any sort of ground game going, it will only open up the pass that much more. I expect Green Bay will go through the Lions like a knife through hot butter and they won't have any problems putting up points.
Despite a close score last week against the Bears, the Lions were far from successful offensively, passing for 178 yards, though they did manage to run for a respectable 134 yards. Aside from Calvin Johnson, the Lions don't have any play-makers on that offense, and Megatron won't be enough to keep up with the Packers. Even if they fight and scrap for 20 points like they did Chicago, it's hard to imagine the Pack scoring less than 30. Green Bay should cruise to an easy cover.
NEW ORLEANS -9.5 over St. Louis
This will really test my "any good team vs the NFC West" theory. The Rams are the latest team to embarrass the Cardinals and preceded that win with a nice road victory in Denver. Still, they've only played one team this year with a winning record (Atlanta) and it wasn't even close. Statistically, the Rams are horribly out-matched on offense (the Rams are ranked 25th, Saints 3rd) and the defenses are relatively evenly matched (14th and 9th). When it comes to a big spread, we need points more than anything. Well, the good news is the Saints have put up 30+ their past four games, and I find it unlikely that the Rams are going to prevent them from extending that streak to five games. While St. Louis only allowed 6 points to Arizona last week, they allowed 33 to the Broncos and 34 to the Falcons the to prior weeks, the 11th and 10th ranked offenses at present. And if nothing else, circling back to my aforementioned theory, the NFC West is 2-12 against opponents with a winning record this year. I'll take my chances on the Saints here. They're going to win, and just like the Lions, I don't think the Rams can keep up. This is one looks great in a teaser.
Cleveland +1 over BUFFALO
To be honest, I'm fairly surprised by this line; I thought Cleveland would be favored by a point or two. After watching Minnesota run over Buffalo last week, it seems very difficult to bet against Peyton Hillis and a good Browns offensive line. The ground game is a huge advantage that the Browns can exploit and Hillis is likely in for a big day. And when Hillis has a big day, the Browns do well- they are 3-1 when he tops the 100 yard mark in a game. Moreover, Fitzpatrick has cooled off the past two weeks against good defenses and the Browns D is coming off a strong performance against Miami.
Another interesting observation in this one is the ATS record. Home field hasn't been that helpful for the Bills, having gone 2-3-1. Perhaps more surprising is that the Browns have actually posted a winning record on the road, going 3-2-1 ATS. The statistics are relatively close between these two teams and that's to be expected when you have a 1 point spread. Really we're just trying to identify who wins this one outright, and I'll bet on the better ground game to do that. I'll take the point. The Browns also look pretty strong in a teaser to me.
SAN DIEGO -7 over Kansas City
A surprise appendectomy for Matt Cassel means a surprise start for Brodie Croyle, more than likely. The Chiefs are supposedly still hoping that Cassel will be able to play Sunday, but I can't imagine how he'd be ready or if he would even be effective. While all the talk about the Chief centers around their dominant run game, the passing game has played a substantial role with Dwayne Bowe breaking out these past few games. The Broncos shut Bowe down last week, and the Chiefs ended up barely winning a game in which they were a nine point favorite. Even more concerning was the fact that they couldn't produce more points with the ground game, considering they were facing the 31st rank rush defense. If Croyle is in, the Chiefs are doomed. The Chargers can screw this one up all the want, but Croyle will find a way to screw it up more. In 16 games, he has a career average of 101.9 yards per game, and a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. When you become that one-dimensional, it doesn't matter how good your run game is. San Diego has the league's top overall defense and is 5th against the run. With Cassel out, the Chargers will key in on the run and the Chiefs will struggle to produce offense, just like last week. Thanks to the Raiders, we can't say that the Chargers haven't lost in December for a long time. However, we can still say that they haven't lost twice in December for a long time. Good enough for me. Chargers should rebound nicely and cover this week.
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