--------------------------------------------------
By Erik Laurinovics, for The Football ERA
--------------------------------------------------
Another two for six week in the books, and another couple of games were lost by half a point. I'll take this time to point out that good betting strategy around key numbers (3, 7, 4, 10, 6) is to buy half a point to move you on to the key number, for example, buying a half to make Kansas City a +3 underdog or to make the Jets a -3 favorite last week. This season I decided to tie myself down to the exact line at the time of making these picks (typically Wednesday afternoon, in case you're curious) and I don't allow myself to alter the line or buy points. Last week highlights why implementing strategy into your betting is so important; if you buy a half point on the two aforementioned picks, last week is 2-2-2 instead of 2-4-0. That won't happen every week, but over the course of a season, basic strategies like these will better your record and make a difference on your bottom line.
Week 9 recap:
LOSSES
NY Jets -3.5 over DETROIT: The Jets offense has really struggled over the past two weeks and they were very lucky to get out of Detroit with a win. Haven't seen enough of their play to know what the exact problem is here.
Miami +5 over BALTIMORE: The week I pick Miami, Chad Henne has a meltdown and throws 3 INTs. Of course. Pennington is now the starter in Miami.
Kansas City +2.5 over OAKLAND: The Chiefs may have won the turnover battle, but their two were back-breaking. A very even game and the Chiefs made costly mistakes to blow the win.
MINNESOTA -8.5 over Arizona: Well, the Vikings dominated the game and won, but unfortunately they waited until about 5 minutes to go into the 4th quarter to make all of that translate into points.
WINS
GREEN BAY -8 over Dallas: The Cowboys had no life or energy of any kind in this game, and the score reflected that. It's not so easy to pick against them again this week with a new coach in place.
NY Giants -7 over SEATTLE: See what happens when the Seahawks face a quality opponent? Proof that the NFC West is garbage.
2010 Overall Record: 16-36-2
Baltimore +1 over ATLANTA
Thursday night special! Baltimore is coming off a solid win over Miami and comes into Atlanta with a 2-1-1 road ATS record. The Faclons, while 6-2 and first place in the NFC South after beating the Bucs last week, haven't exactly faced a tough schedule so far. They are only 1-2 against teams with a winning record and weren't quite able to beat the Bucs enough to convince me that they are a major player in the league at this point. Reinforcing this idea is the fact that Atlanta is playing terribly in the secondary, and is ranked 26th against the pass. The Ravens come into the game ranked 15th passing the ball, and have the personnel to take advantage of a bad secondary. Flacco, Boldin, Rice, and Heap will give the defense fits.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have an above average defense (9th overall) and square off against the Falcons 5th ranked offense. Baltimore, however, also has the personnel to contain the Falcons offense. Last week, the Ravens faced a great ground game and big play-making receiver in the Dolphins and Brandon Marshall. This week, its the Falcons, Michael Turner, and Roddy White. While Matt Ryan is a better quarterback than Chad Henne, I expect a similar fate for Atlanta in this game. The Ravens are playing well on both sides of the ball and should come out ahead in this matchup between two of the league's top teams.
With both these teams coming off of tough losses last week, only one of them looks like they have a chance of improving this week, and that team is... The Bengals. They were oh-so-close against the Steelers and lost the game with mistakes (2 turnovers, 2 missed field goals). Jonathan Joseph's return made all the difference in the world to the Bengals defense, and they held Ben Roethlisberger to 163 yards passing. Aside from the TD they gave up on the Randle El pass, which should have been intercepted, the defense played a very good game. Indianapolis, by comparison, is clearly on the decline. Peyton was hounded by the Eagles pass rush, getting sacked 3 times and throwing 2 INTs. The Colts were unable to run the ball, with Brown and James combining for only 62 yards. Austin Collie was injured and is now out for week 10. With the Colts looking one-dimensional, look for the Bengals to sell out against the pass. If they can take advantage of the Colts 29th ranked rushing defense, they can control the tempo of the game, wear down the defense, and keep Manning off the field. If the Bengals can execute well, I think they can actually win this game outright. If the Bengals can even do an average job this week, I like them to keep the Colts within 7. The matchups in this one play to the Bengals strengths.
Houston +1 over JACKSONVILLE
Am I missing something on this one? I don't understand how the Jags are favorites here. Houston lost a tough game to San Diego, and Jacksonville had the week off. Sure, the Jags upset Dallas a couple of weeks ago, but how impressive does that look after Green Bay demolished the Cowboys this past week? Lets get back into the facts for this matchup:
Jacksonville:
Offense- 28th passing, 8th rushing
Defense- 28th passing, 22nd rushing
Houston:
Offense- 12th passing, 7th rushing
Defense- 32nd passing, 11th rushing
So, again, can someone explain this? I don't see anything that points to a Jacksonville victory. They are coming off a bye week, but I don't think that's enough to beat the Texans. Houston will be able to do whatever they want on offense, and Jacksonville isn't good enough passing the ball to take advantage of the worst secondary in the league. I will be stunned if Jacksonville wins this one.
Philadelphia -3.5 over WASHINGTON
Story lines abound for this one, making it an appropriate selection for Monday Night Football. Vick back to face the team that busted his ribs, McNabb against his former team, and of course, a game with substantial implications for the division. After seeing Vick lead the Eagles to victory over the depleted Colts, it becomes obvious that they are a much more effective offense when he's in the game. The Vick-led Eagles generated 413 yards of offense last week, and a porous Redskins defense makes another productive week likely. The Redskins defense ranks 31st against the pass, 18th against the run, and are going to have their hands full with the Eagles offense. The Redskins offense isn't much better, ranking 19th overall, facing the 12th ranked Eagles defense. Since upsetting the Packers in week 5, McNabb hasn't thrown for more than 246 yards in a game, and has thrown 3 TDs to 5 INTs in that span. Washington has also been less than impressive at home, going 2-2 (2-0-2 ATS) so far this year. Combine all of this with what seems to be a growing divide between Shanahan and McNabb, and Philadelphia looks like a solid pick to me.
PITTSBURGH -4.5 over New England
The only home team I have out of this week's six, this ties into what I said a couple of weeks ago... New England's offense has been struggling since the Randy Moss trade and numbers are down across the board. The Pats went on the road and were absolutely handled by the Browns, and I don't expect anything different from the Steelers. Cleveland beat New England by running the ball extremely well and playing solid defense. What are the first two things that come to mind when you think of the Steelers? The rank 12th running the ball and are ranked 4th overall defensively. While it is tough to bet against Brady and the Pats, last week's blowout loss against the Browns is a pretty big signal that something isn't right here. Many people are dismissing the game as a fluke (even the oddsmakers, judging by a 4.5 line), but I think the Patriot offense is winding down. In their past 4 games, the Patriots have averaged 86 yards running the ball and Tom Brady has not passed for more than 300 yards (and has passed for less than 250 twice). Recent wins have been a product of disastrous mistakes made by opposing teams; the Chargers, Ravens, and Vikings were all their own worst enemy. Pittsburgh, however, has the highest turnover differential in the AFC, coming in at +9 with 21 takeaways to 12 give aways, so I don't expect too many gifts for the Patriots in this game. Look for Pittsburgh to runaway with this one, and this year could be the beginning of the decline of the Patriots dynasty.
Kansas City -1 over DENVER
The Chiefs decided to stop winning the games they should win last week and cost me a pick. Despite the late-game choke, I fully expect the Chiefs to continue their semi-consistent solid play. They are a young team and will make critical mistakes, which last week highlighted nicely, but they have the foundations of a good team... And they also play in the AFC West, and get to face the likes of Denver every now and again. Hopefully the bye week gave the Broncos enough time to forget about losing to the then 1-6 Niners, but I doubt it gave them enough time to fix their problem stopping the run. The Broncos rank 31st in the league against the run, allowing a staggering 154 yards per game. San Francisco put up 143 yards on the ground and even a 370 yard passing performance from Kyle Orton could not save the Broncos in that game. The Chiefs may struggle to pass against the Broncos 3rd ranked secondary, but boy, will they run. Easily the best running team in football, they are averaging over 179 yards on the ground per game. How do you not bet on that? To seal the deal, turnovers, which I pointed out week are an area that the Chiefs excel in (+6 differential) are a major weakness for the Broncos. With 9 takeaways and 13 give aways, they have a -4 differential. Kansas City may have let one get away last week, but this is an even bigger mismatch on the ground than they had with Oakland. They will be in control of this ballgame and should win easily.
No comments:
Post a Comment