--------------------------------------------------
by Erik Laurinovics, for The Football ERA
-----------------------------------------------
AFC West
The regular season is nearly upon us, and odd-makers everywhere have set their lines for regular season wins. In a series of posts, I will cover every over/under available, giving you my take on each team’s 2010 outlook, and my pick on the over or under.For those of you new to sports betting, an over under is quite simple; the house gives you a total number, and you simply pick over or under that number. In the case of NFL regular season wins, we simply need to pick whether the team in question will produce more or fewer wins than the given number.
Each year in the NFL, aside from their intra-division games, each division also faces two other divisions in the league; one from the AFC, and one from the NFC. The non-division opponents will be listed at the start of each article. In addition to the games, each team also has two “wild card” games, which are against two other teams in the NFL outside of their own division, or the two other divisions on the schedule. These matchups will also be evaluated for some teams. It is extremely important to look at the strength of schedule when evaluating a team’s ability to win throughout the year.
Our trip around the NFL begins with the AFC West, so let’s get started!
AFC West Non Division Opponents: NFC West (SF, ARI, SEA, STL), AFC South (HOU, IND, TEN, JAX)
Denver Broncos Over/Under: 7.5
Pick: Under
Denver has had no shortage of bad news this offseason, in the form of coaching changes, trades, and injuries. Mike Nolan departing for Miami has to be seen as a big blow to the defense, which played very well last year. With Elvis Dumervil out for an extended period of time, I expect a substantial drop off in play from the Denver’s defensive unit. Offensively, Brandon Marshall is now gone, while Knowshonn Moreno and rookies Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker have sustained injuries in camp.
As if that weren’t enough, both the Chiefs and the Raiders have improved, and could legitimately challenge Denver this season. Non-division opponents include the NFC West and AFC South. While they may get a couple of wins from the NFC West, there is a strong possibility Denver could be at the bottom of its own division this year. As they barely managed to finish 8-8 after starting 6-0 last season, I would expect that losing trend to continue through 2010.
Kansas City Chiefs Over/Under: 6.5
Pick: Over
The AFC West is incredibly difficult to project this year… How far will the Chargers fall? How much of their slack will be picked up by the Raiders and Chiefs? The Chiefs should sport a much more dynamic offense this year as they head into their second season under Todd Haley. They have an excellent tandem in the offensive backfield, with Jamaal Charles backed up by Thomas Jones. The defense is still a weak point, but rookie Eric Berry should have a substantial impact and help them claw their way up the defensive rankings a bit.
Oakland Raiders Over/Under: 6.0
Pick: Over
The logic here is very simple. The Raiders finished last year 5-11, with JaMarcus Russell, the worst QB I’ve ever seen in my life, leading the team. He is now gone, and Jason Campbell leads the offense. That alone should get them over 6. However, in another shocking development for the Raiders, they actually managed to have a good draft! Training camp reports have been solid on their rookies, and it looks like they’ve strengthened their offensive line, line-backing corps, and secondary. While Campbell won’t have a lot of weapons on the offensive side of the ball, the running game is solid, and the defense will keep them in it. A good, ball-control offense will lead to wins.
Moving on to the schedule, they should be able to improve on their 2-4 division record from last year. The Broncos will be at the bottom this year, and the Raiders should be able to collect 2-4 wins, I think. Outside of the division, the AFC South will pose some problems, but their talented defense should be able to provide at least one win, maybe even two. The NFC West is more favorable for Oakland, and two wins shouldn’t be a problem there. Unfortunately for Oakland, they drew Miami and Pittsburgh as their two “Wild Card” opponents, both of which make for tough games. Nonetheless, I feel like 6 wins is the floor for this team, so I can comfortably bet on the over.
San Diego Chargers Over/Under 11.0
Pick: Under
This pick is in large part due to the holdouts of Vincent Jackson (WR) and Marcus McNeil (LT). While I believe they could withstand V-Jax holding out, losing McNeil is huge, as San Diego does not have much depth on that offensive line. In addition to these losses, division rivals Kansas City and Oakland have made solid improvements to their respective teams. I don’t see San Diego doing worse than 4-2 in the division, but may have issues outside of it. Their defense (11th ranked against the pass, 20th against the run) struggled last year, and they did little to improve it this year. Jamaal Williams and Antonio Cromartie are gone, and San Diego is attempting to fill those holes with rookies. I think they will continue to struggle on that side of the ball in 2010.
In their NFC West matchups, the Chargers may have problems slowing down the 49ers and Cardinals. The AFC South features two strong passing attacks (Indy and Houston) and arguably the best running back in football, Chris Johnson (Tennessee), which will also pose challenges for the San Diego defense. Their two “Wild Card” opponents are New England and Cincinnati, both quality teams. While I do see San Diego winning the division and making the playoffs, 12 wins is a bit much to ask for this year. This could be a push, but more than likely it will be an under.
No comments:
Post a Comment