Continuing our series on the over/under for regular season wins in the NFL, we’re taking a trip out to the NFC West. While the 49ers and Cardinals will likely be in a battle for the division title, the other two teams in the division could very end up battling for a top pick in the 2011 draft. And how will they do facing the over/under? Here’s my take.Ramblings and Gambling:
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by Erik Laurinovics, for The Football ERA
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NFC West
NFC West Non-Division Opponents: AFC West (SD, OAK, DEN, KC), NFC South (ATL, CAR, TB, NO)
Pick: Over
A tough call here, but Arizona has a pretty legitimate shot at going 8-8 or 9-7. This picked is based more on the ease of Arizona’s schedule rather than their own ability. Realistically, Arizona should come out of the NFC West with a record 4-2 or better; the Rams are as close to being a “gimme” as anyone in the league and Seattle is not looking much better. That said, when you look at Arizona’s non-division opponents (@ATL, OAK, @SD, NO, TB, @MIN, @KC, DEN, @CAR, DAL) finding 4 more wins seems likely, with TB, DEN, OAK, and KC looking like the most likely wins.
It seems odds-makers have a lack of faith in Leinart this year. If he bombs, their season could quickly come undone, but Arizona should be able to run the ball with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, and Larry Fitzgerald will make any QB look a little bit better. Their defense, is at least average, or slightly below, and will be enough to keep them in games as long as Leinart doesn’t flop.
San Francisco Over/Under: 8.5
Pick: Over
Another pick that ultimately comes down to your belief in one player, and that player is Alex Smith (QB). Alex is hanging on, and this is likely his last chance. His play has left something to be desired over the last 5 years, yet the 49ers are not ready to give up on him. Alex Smith supporters point out this is his very first season with the same offensive coordinator, while detractors simply point to his past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I do not expect a meteoric rise from mediocrity, à la Drew Brees. However, I do think he could find a niche as a solid, game-managing QB. The 49ers invested 2 first-round picks into the offensive-line and promise to run the ball more this year. If they can run successfully, and not put the game on Alex Smith’s shoulders (or in his hands, for that matter), they will be able to rely on their up-and-coming defense to win games.
The Niners swept the Cardinals in 2009, and have a very real chance at running through the division this year. I project a division record of 4-2 for the Niners, meaning they only need to find 5 wins outside of the division. Luckily for San Francisco, they drew the AFC West and NFC South, which should provide them with those wins. Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver are beatable teams, and they should be able to knock-off Carolina and Tampa in the NFC South.
I see 9 wins as the floor for this team, which is an improvement of 1 win from last year, when they finished 8-8 and enjoyed their first non-losing season in 6 years. This team is young, has promise, and is a great pick for an over… And if you take the over and lose, well, it was probably Alex Smith’s fault.
Seattle Seahawks Over/Under: 7.5
Pick: Under
While there was much buzz about Seattle’s offseason and how splendid it was, I disagree, it least for their 2010 outlook. Russell Okung steps in to fill the shoes of Hall of Famer Walter Jones, and I don’t think you expect a rookie to play at that level right away. Pete Carol has already shown his affinity (bias?) for collecting former USC players (Lendale White and Mike Williams), and this may end up being a detriment for the Seahawks. White is already off the team, and Mike Williams has yet to make any impact anywhere in his pro-career. The offense still lacks weapons, and they traded away backup QB Seneca Wallace to the Browns, leaving them in dire straits should Hasselbeck go down (which seems to happen every year).
They are very clearly the third best team in the division, and it’s hard to see them beating Arizona or San Francisco. At best, they pick up 2 wins against the Rams, but they very well may give the Rams a win this year. While Seattle may be able to pick up some wins against the AFC West and NFC South (TB, DEN, KC), I don’t think they can make it to 8-8. They obviously need to rebuild, need to find a QB of the future, and need to surround said QB with something other than old and busted receivers. Earl Thomas will not turn around their 30th ranked pass defense over night, and little was done to improve their 15th ranked run defense. This is one of the easier picks in my opinion, and I’m taking the under.
St. Louis Rams Over/Under: 5.0
Pick: Under
Pop quiz! Name six teams the Rams could beat… and you’re absolutely right! There aren’t 6 teams the Rams could beat. The Rams have so many holes, and while they made some good moves in the draft and free agency, they still have another season or two to go before they can think about having 8-8 as a goal. The 25th ranked defense didn’t change much, and Stafford isn’t going to have a whole lot of time behind a young and shaky offensive line. Steven Jackson is reportedly the healthiest he’s been in a long time, and the Rams better hope he stays that way, otherwise they won’t be able to generate anything on offense.
Looking at the easiest opponents on the schedule (@OAK, SEA x2, @DET , @TB, @DEN, KC), they’ll get some wins, but they are out-matched by any of those teams. The Rams should be in contention for the 1st overall pick in the 2011 draft, and this should be an easy under.
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