Week 3 Sample Analysis

Tennessee went into New Orleans for a monday night game that was to be a must-win game for the Saints to avoid an 0-3 start. The Saints prepared that week for what they knew would be a battle that they had to bring their 'A' game. Despite the hostile environment and a rabid opponent with their backs to the wall, it was clear before the game that Tennessee was for real this season so far with hard-fought victories won with solid play at the line of scrimmage. This is how this piece of 20-20 hindsight was apparent before the game played out on monday night of week 3:


Tennessee opened the season with a solid victory over Jacksonville that was not assisted by turnovers or any overt breaks involving the proverbial 'bounce of the ball.' The quotient result is based specifically on the opponent played. What's more, the better an opponent does at the line of scrimmage on offense and defense, the more positive that team's result AND the lower an opponent is pushed down towards negative numbers. Therefore, a spread is created between the winner and loser that is wider with greater dominance in results of the quotient. (A spread that doesn't initially seem that close but involves two ppositive numbers usually indicates a fairly competitive game. (...like a 700.00 to 200.00 result, for example).

The quotient result for Tennessee was the best of week 1 suggesting a dominant performance:

--->Tenn.......1584.44333
vs. Jax..........-459.64

Not only did Tennessee's result go up with solid play,
but the Jaguar's resulting quotient was lowered to the minimum result of that week.


Tennessee's Week 2 quotient shows that they gave Indianapolis a solid battle up front (although Indy pushes the envelope with game-breaking plays on defensive secondaries---often resulting in larger final scores, ultimately winning the game):

---> Tenn........612.4433
vs. Ind......505.54

Regardless of the final result on the score board, this was a hard fought battle at the line of scrimmage with both Tennessee and Indy rushing the ball with success at various points during the game.

Given Tennessee's early success with their game plans, it was clear that the Saints would be in for a battle regardless of the ultimate outcome that left New Orleans 0-3.

NOT a Power Ranking!

One of my earliest posts emphasizes that this quotient is NOT a power ranking by any stretch of the imagination, and there are a number of reasons why. Everybody has one developing in their head, but short of being able to break down film and analyze the entire play of the league based on multiple angles This algorithm helps give me a unique angle to do just some of that analysis along with film breakdown, injury status, and performance analysis. In the end, my own hunch about who is what in a power rankings type of setup (like a chess ladder) at any given point in time from week to week---is just that, a hunch!

...With that in mind, we, hopefully, will attempt to run an analysis of the first quarter---the September football season results and try to get a handle on the constant changing landscape of the NFL from week to week. The quotient only adds one more element or Angle--if you will--to view that landscape and---most of all---try to filter out the loud noise of the media and public perception, who are quick to write off certain teams...and "crown" others (a la Denny Green) based soley on Records, Points Scored, and those all to familiar Offensive and Defensive Rankings which are gleaned solely from Yardage results.

Sample Category Breakdown

The Various Sections of the Algorithm

E-C,BG/100
E- D,L,AY
E- E,K
E-F,U,X,AG Just a Summation of the Various Categories
E- G,P
E-H,AH,AV
E-I,AO,AQ
E- J,AI



E-def rsh
E-rsh att
E-sacks
E-scks for Defensive Pressure and Defensive Rushing Results
E-given
scks
sck-given


E-rsh 1st
rsh 1st
op.rsh 1st Rushing
E- rsh avg
rush avg
op-rsh avg


E- 3rd dwn
E- Y
E-X & Y
3rd Some minor Contributors (3rd Dwn conversion and Time of Possession)
down
top
opp-top


rush
opp-rush
E-top Rushing, TDs, and Defense
E-rush td
E Def Rsh 1st
0
0
wk 1
wk 2
drives
lengthdrives
wk 5
drives Mounting and Sustaining Drives

drives
drives
wk 11
wk 12
wk 14
wk 15
wk 16
for byes
td
rush td
curr. Total
curr. Total Previous Week Totals for Cumulative Results

Sample Quotient

Without going into the boring number-crunching, here is a more detailed look at a sample quotient:

Column Headers

E-C,BG/100 E- D,L,AY E- E,K E-F,U,X,AG E- G,P E-H,AH,AV E-I,AO,AQ E- J,AI E-def rsh E-rsh att E-sacks E-scks for E-given scks sck-given E-rsh 1st rsh 1st op.rsh 1st E- rsh avg rush avg op-rsh avg E- 3rd dwn E- Y E-X & Y 3rd down top opp-top rush opp-rush E-top E-rush td E Def Rsh 1st 0 0 wk 1 wk 2 drives drives wk 5 drives length drives drives wk 11 wk 12 wk 14 wk 15 wk 16 for byes td rush td curr. Total curr. Total

Sample Result (from Week One)

Tenn 1584.44333 158444.3 137433.3 112933.33 98125 70000 58750 43250 23250 24500 7636 66 -20 2 2 28125 Tenn 15 5 3600 5.8 4 -2291.67 4.5 5.416667 5 12 36.55 23.05 49 18 13500 4500 20000 Tenn 41.751 41751 6000 5500 9500 14 8 5 3 6750 22 13 13375 570 -35 19 7 1 0 0 Tenn