Ramblings and Gambling:
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By Erik Laurinovics, for The Football ERA
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Well, one more week of misery, down. It what is quickly threatening to be an entire season of anger, pain, and sorrow, I'm becoming numb. After seven weeks of surprising upsets and stunning meltdowns, there isn't much that shocks me anymore. The Chargers handing a live ball to the other team, the Browns beating the Saints, the Raiders dropping 59 points in three quarters... My reaction was "Oh well, that happens." That happens??!? I don't remember ever seeing this many crazy things in a given weekend, but it is quickly becoming the norm for the 2010 season. I
expect my picks to be utterly wrong or to just miss based on one fluke play or bad call. It's terrible! My only hope is that this experience now somehow helps someone in the future; I do not want this suffering to go in vain! I'll continue the fight this week though, and I still believe there is plenty of time to get this season turned around.
Better than zero. Last week's results: -
LOSSES
Arizona +6 over SEATTLE: Bah. Nothing will convince me Seattle is actually good. Max Hall took a day off, and that's the risk you run betting on a rookie QB.
SAN DIEGO -2.5 over New England: I was laughing by the third San Diego fumble. I remember saying, "That's a backwards pass..." only to watch Jacob Hester stand and look at the football. What a miserably coached team they have become.
NEW ORLEANS -13.5 over Cleveland: And I quote from last week's post, "The only thing that can derail this pick is the Madden curse, and if the Saints somehow lose this game, I'm sure you'll be hearing about that." Called it. The Madden Curse is real.
DENVER -8 over Oakland: To make matters worse, McFadden was on my bench in my fantasy leagues.
Pittsburgh -3 over MIAMI: Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought that the rule was a fumble ruling could NOT be challenged (it becomes a "non-challengeable play") if there was no visual evidence of a clear recovery. Right? Which means it should have stood as a Steelers TD.
WINS
KANSAS CITY -9 over Jacksonville: Just one win for me, but a good one. Kansas City keeps winning games they are supposed to win.
2010 Overall Record: 12-28-2
Here are the picks for week 8. C'mon, no whammies!
NEW YORK JETS -5.5 over Green Bay
It's hard for me to bet against Green Bay, I admit. I was one of those people gushing about their offensive potential during the preseason, while pointing out that they also have a very good defense. At the point, however, Green Bay is looking one-dimensional. Minnesota was a nice win, but they got a pretty big present from Favre. The Jets bring a much stingier defense to the table, and I think stand a very good chance of shutting this Packer offense down. The loss of Jermichael Finley has slowed them down a bit passing, and they haven't run the ball well at all without Ryan Grant. New York brings the toughest defense that Green Bay has faced yet. With defensive injuries mounting for the Packers, the Jets will continue to establish the ground game, control the ball, and limit big plays. Mid-way through the season, the Jets are looking like the class of the AFC. Green Bay, however, has gone from looking like a Super Bowl contender to falling into the quagmire of "good" teams in the NFC. I'm looking for the Jets to keep it rolling.
ST. LOUIS -3 over Carolina
The 49ers can make any team look good. Carolina beating them does not mean they resemble anything close to a good team. Matt Moore did look much better than Jimmy Clausen, but the Panthers were pretty miserable in all other facets of the game. The defense allowed a 100 yard game for Gore and even made Alex Smith look good on a couple of drives. St. Louis has been very scrappy and lost a heart breaker last week, but they covered. The Rams are now 5-2 ATS; the Panthers are 2-4 ATS. Statistically, the Rams are better across the board except in passing defense. This isn't much of an issue as the Rams lean heavily on Steven Jackson in their offense. With DeAngelo Williams out, Carolina is lacking play makers, and they won't have many options other than Steve Smith and Jonathan Stewart. The Rams have done a respectable job of limiting offensive mistakes considering the fact they have a rookie QB and should win if they continue to do so. Also of note, the Rams last played at home two weeks ago against San Diego, and proceeded to upset the Chargers as 8 point dogs.
There are two immediate thoughts that enter my head for this pick:
1) There's NO WAY Seattle wins two in a row on the road, right? That win against Chicago should mean we've got a few road losses coming. Law of averages.
2) Oakland just score 59 points, and you don't stop betting because the team is hot.
That's what I think about it. Seattle's win in Chicago was an absolutely shocking game. They are consistently terrible on the road, and I don't think that one good performance should shake off that reputation. While it's unlikely that the Raiders will score 59 points again any time soon, there is no doubt that McFadden provides a bit of a spark to that offense. His successful return give the Raiders a great 1-2 punch and will take some pressure off Jason Campbell. Say what you will about his season so far, but he is a better quarterback than this. He delivered a solid performance last week (12/20, 204, 2, 0) and I think he can build on that. If he continues to play mistake-free football, Oakland will win some games. The Raider defense will keep them in this one. While the Raiders have a poor rush defense (28th), the Seahawks are only ranked 24th running the ball. As usual, Oakland has a great pass defense and is ranked 5th. I think the matchups in this game work really well for the Raiders. If they can at all continue the offensive momentum they built last week, they should win here.
Minnesota +6 over NEW ENGLAND
Upset special. The stage is being set for some Brett Favre drama and heroics, but I don't think it matters. New England seemed very vulnerable to me in San Diego this past week. The Chargers literally handed them the ball, but they could not get the offense going. Brady only passed for 159 yards and the ground game generated a mere 51. Two weeks ago, it took a Ravens meltdown and Tom Brady comeback to get the job done. I still say they are going to regret the Moss trade and the offense will suffer. The Vikings have an above-average defense, rating 13th against the pass and 11th against the run. If the pass rush can get to Brady, the Patriots are in trouble. Offensively for the Vikings, I'm not too worried about the quarterback situation. While Favre is obviously the best quarterback, he's making pick sixes as often as I am. Tavaris Jackson is a downgrade, but the Vikings would likely run a more conservative offense, which make actually help them. More Adrian Peterson is never a bad thing. Consequently, I'm not concerned about who starts for Minnesota. I expect their defense to make it pretty easy on their offense, whether it's of the aggressive-interception-prone-Favre variety or the run-run-pass-Tavaris variety. Minnesota stand a great chance of winning outright, and I think keeping it within 6 will be easy.
Pittsburgh -1 over NEW ORLEANS
Madden Curse! Ho-ly cow! The Browns handled the Saints last week. This one wasn't a fluky upset; the Browns controlled that game. Aside from the game against Tampa two weeks ago, the New Orleans offense hasn't looked good in any game. The Pittsburgh defense, however, is looking good every game. Holding Miami to two field goals after the offense turned the ball over in its own territory won the Steelers that game. Even though Mendenhall couldn't get going, the offense manged over 300 yards passing. It takes a complete defense to shut down the Steelers, and the Saints don't have one. And even if they do manage to slow down the Steeler offense, will the Saints be able to move the ball on the Steelers? If they perform anything like last week, not likely. I don't think the Saints win this game, so I'm fine taking Pittsburgh -1. I don't see anything worse than a push here. Listen to the Saints schedule so far: Minnesota, @SF, Atlanta, Carolina, @Arizona, @TB, Cleveland. They've faced ONE team with a winning record this year. They haven't played a team anywhere near Pittsburgh's caliber and that will show on the field this week.
Houston +5.5 over INDIANAPOLIS
This is going to be a fun game. Offense will abound and touchdowns will fly. I don't expect much out of either defense in this contest, with Houston ranked 32nd overall and Indy at 21st. Offensively, it's fairly even as well, with Houston ranked 4th and the Colts ranked 2nd. The most significant variable to me in this game is injuries. The Colts lost several key offensive players this week. Austin Collie and Dallas Clark both had surgery and Clark is already on the IR. Addai is rumored to be out at least a couple of weeks and backup Donald Brown is questionable as well. The Colts are running out of weapons and won't have enough guns for this shootout. I'm sure the offense will still move the ball, but the Texans can really key in on Reggie Wayne this week without having to worry too much. Man coverage against Blaire White and Anthony Gonzalez does not sound nearly as frightening as man coverage against Austin Collie and Dallas Clark. Houston showed they can compete by winning their season opener at home against Indy. This will be the first week we see Peyton Manning without all of his weapons. Houston is another underdog with solid potential for an outright win this week.
