NE...... 7626.881364
Pitt...... 7303.739143
Tenn...... 7002.618737
Ind...... 6379.874758
NYG...... 6283.964545
Phi...... 5731.898355
Was...... 5638.003333
Bal...... 5609.284127
Dall...... 5263.612549
SD...... 5227.761136
Jax...... 4863.23619
Minn...... 4218.490833
Arz...... 3849.528333
Oak...... 3842.589598
NO...... 3390.895
Sea...... 3384.328889
Cinn...... 2907.756591
TB...... 2718.171389
GB...... 2699.914663
KC...... 2675.698831
Hou...... 2405.834529
Den...... 2343.543697
Car...... 2342.167083
Chi...... 2079.278109
Mia...... 1920.42119
Cleve...... 1390.73087
Det...... 1139.849714
Atl...... 748.0711905
Buff...... 704.0633939
StL...... 680.0511905
NYJ...... 490.8363889
SF...... 296.6251928
The Football Earned Run Average is real football analysis of pro football statistics, scores, and handicapping. This special algorithm measures a teams performance at the LINE OF SCRIMMAGE as best as can be done after film analysis with a comprehensive statistical analysis of a team's performance.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Week Seven Results
Cinn ........ 139629.4091
NYG ........ 129880.5
Tenn ........ 116164.3333
Sea ........ 113001.8333
Ind ........ 110216.5
Mia ........ 96656.92857
Dall ........ 91387.33333
KC ........ 83720.28571
TB ........ 75066.5
SD ........ 74682.30195
Phi ........ 63993
Buff ........ 54382.16667
Arz ........ 49249.66667
NO ........ 48244
Bal ........ 48213.5
Pitt ........ 45016
Atl ........ 38876.66667
GB ........ 38570.20948
Det ........ 38082.57143
Was ........ 36240.5
Den ........ 34100.33333
Car ........ 33459.52976
Jax ........ 23811
Chi ........ 23779
Minn ........ 23624.83333
Cleve ........ 19867.58385
NE ........ 11061.5
Oak ........ 5857.911765
StL ........ 4277.285714
SF ........ -14404.5
Hou ........ -23160.08824
NYJ ........ -30522
NYG ........ 129880.5
Tenn ........ 116164.3333
Sea ........ 113001.8333
Ind ........ 110216.5
Mia ........ 96656.92857
Dall ........ 91387.33333
KC ........ 83720.28571
TB ........ 75066.5
SD ........ 74682.30195
Phi ........ 63993
Buff ........ 54382.16667
Arz ........ 49249.66667
NO ........ 48244
Bal ........ 48213.5
Pitt ........ 45016
Atl ........ 38876.66667
GB ........ 38570.20948
Det ........ 38082.57143
Was ........ 36240.5
Den ........ 34100.33333
Car ........ 33459.52976
Jax ........ 23811
Chi ........ 23779
Minn ........ 23624.83333
Cleve ........ 19867.58385
NE ........ 11061.5
Oak ........ 5857.911765
StL ........ 4277.285714
SF ........ -14404.5
Hou ........ -23160.08824
NYJ ........ -30522
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Cumulative Score after Week 6
NE........ 7516.266364
Pitt........ 6853.579143
Tenn........ 5840.975404
Ind........ 5277.709758
Was........ 5275.598333
Bal........ 5127.149127
Phi........ 5091.968355
NYG........ 4985.159545
Jax........ 4625.12619
SD........ 4480.938117
Dall........ 4349.739216
Minn........ 3982.2425
Oak........ 3784.01048
Arz........ 3357.031667
NO........ 2908.455
Hou........ 2637.435411
GB........ 2314.212569
Sea........ 2254.310556
Car........ 2007.571786
Den........ 2002.540364
TB........ 1967.506389
Chi........ 1841.488109
KC........ 1838.495974
Cinn........ 1511.4625
Cleve........ 1192.055031
Mia........ 953.8519048
NYJ........ 796.0563889
Det........ 759.024
StL........ 637.2783333
SF........ 440.6701928
Atl........ 359.3045238
Buff........ 160.2417273
Pitt........ 6853.579143
Tenn........ 5840.975404
Ind........ 5277.709758
Was........ 5275.598333
Bal........ 5127.149127
Phi........ 5091.968355
NYG........ 4985.159545
Jax........ 4625.12619
SD........ 4480.938117
Dall........ 4349.739216
Minn........ 3982.2425
Oak........ 3784.01048
Arz........ 3357.031667
NO........ 2908.455
Hou........ 2637.435411
GB........ 2314.212569
Sea........ 2254.310556
Car........ 2007.571786
Den........ 2002.540364
TB........ 1967.506389
Chi........ 1841.488109
KC........ 1838.495974
Cinn........ 1511.4625
Cleve........ 1192.055031
Mia........ 953.8519048
NYJ........ 796.0563889
Det........ 759.024
StL........ 637.2783333
SF........ 440.6701928
Atl........ 359.3045238
Buff........ 160.2417273
Week 6 Results
NYG ........ 176974.5
SD ........ 133570.8571
Pitt ........ 114226.319
Minn ........ 109435.5
NO ........ 97436.66667
KC ........ 95044.95455
NE ........ 92870.31818
Ind ........ 87961.82929
Jax ........ 87771
Tenn ........ 84579.31818
Was ........ 76573.5
Phi ........ 73991.85714
Cleve ........ 73286
Bal ........ 69444.85714
Car ........ 64763.5
NYJ ........ 48652.75
Mia ........ 44126.33333
StL ........ 36085.16667
GB ........ 35614.71429
Den ........ 33375.67273
Cinn ........ 31581.25
Arz ........ 24487.66667
Det ........ 12650.4
Hou ........ 11058
SF ........ 7344.503214
Buff ........ 2670.695455
Sea ........ 1445
Chi ........ -5143.25
TB ........ -7787.25
Dall ........ -14502.91176
Oak ........ -21395
Atl ........ -58375.57143
SD ........ 133570.8571
Pitt ........ 114226.319
Minn ........ 109435.5
NO ........ 97436.66667
KC ........ 95044.95455
NE ........ 92870.31818
Ind ........ 87961.82929
Jax ........ 87771
Tenn ........ 84579.31818
Was ........ 76573.5
Phi ........ 73991.85714
Cleve ........ 73286
Bal ........ 69444.85714
Car ........ 64763.5
NYJ ........ 48652.75
Mia ........ 44126.33333
StL ........ 36085.16667
GB ........ 35614.71429
Den ........ 33375.67273
Cinn ........ 31581.25
Arz ........ 24487.66667
Det ........ 12650.4
Hou ........ 11058
SF ........ 7344.503214
Buff ........ 2670.695455
Sea ........ 1445
Chi ........ -5143.25
TB ........ -7787.25
Dall ........ -14502.91176
Oak ........ -21395
Atl ........ -58375.57143
Saturday, October 13, 2007
My Top Four Power Rankings
These are not based on Record but my own hunch as to how a team will perform on a given sunday --- not withstanding injuries, bounce of the ball, and turnovers. Currently, I would say that the AFC is a better conference at the top then the NFC. My top 4:
1. New England Patriots
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Tennessee Titans
1. New England Patriots
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Tennessee Titans
Composite Result after Week 5
This result combines the defense only result with my general algorithm which factors in both offense and defense. It is based on a cumulative score after the first 5 weeks of the season:
NE 10412.56318
Pitt 9896.315952
Phi 8441.424784
Tenn 8372.057222
Dall 8109.768333
Was 8064.863333
Bal 7942.700556
Jax 7264.91619
Ind 6903.091465
Minn 6677.2625
Oak 6512.33548
NYG 6410.414545
SD 6227.729545
Arz 6142.155
Hou 5759.355411
Sea 5247.360556
Chi 5230.420609
GB 5168.065426
TB 3770.378889
KC 3460.546429
NO 3417.213333
Atl 3208.060238
Cinn 3035.025
Car 2912.436786
SF 2699.725161
Det 2695.02
Den 2493.783636
Cleve 2124.195031
Buff 1866.034773
NYJ 1374.528889
StL 1326.426667
Mia 1075.088571
NE 10412.56318
Pitt 9896.315952
Phi 8441.424784
Tenn 8372.057222
Dall 8109.768333
Was 8064.863333
Bal 7942.700556
Jax 7264.91619
Ind 6903.091465
Minn 6677.2625
Oak 6512.33548
NYG 6410.414545
SD 6227.729545
Arz 6142.155
Hou 5759.355411
Sea 5247.360556
Chi 5230.420609
GB 5168.065426
TB 3770.378889
KC 3460.546429
NO 3417.213333
Atl 3208.060238
Cinn 3035.025
Car 2912.436786
SF 2699.725161
Det 2695.02
Den 2493.783636
Cleve 2124.195031
Buff 1866.034773
NYJ 1374.528889
StL 1326.426667
Mia 1075.088571
Defense Only Formula
This algorithm is seperate from my other one but looks at cumulative defensive results after week 5. The value in looking at this result in conjunction with the other is that, ultimately, defense determines who controls the game and often the outcome.
Pitt....1395
Phi.....1363.125
NE......1275
Minn....1263.125
Dall....1205
Was.....1185
Jax.....1172.5
Bal.....1170
Tenn....1125.625
Chi.....1112.5
Hou.....1077.5
GB......1070
NYG.....1065
SD......1027.5
Arz.....1010
Sea.....1002.5
KC.......857.5
Oak......838.125
Ind......835
SF.......777.5
Atl......755
Det......687.5
Cinn.....613.125
Buff.....577.5
TB.......575
Cleve....555
Car......517.5
NO.......494.375
NYJ......355
StL......350
Den......275
Mia......187.5
Pitt....1395
Phi.....1363.125
NE......1275
Minn....1263.125
Dall....1205
Was.....1185
Jax.....1172.5
Bal.....1170
Tenn....1125.625
Chi.....1112.5
Hou.....1077.5
GB......1070
NYG.....1065
SD......1027.5
Arz.....1010
Sea.....1002.5
KC.......857.5
Oak......838.125
Ind......835
SF.......777.5
Atl......755
Det......687.5
Cinn.....613.125
Buff.....577.5
TB.......575
Cleve....555
Car......517.5
NO.......494.375
NYJ......355
StL......350
Den......275
Mia......187.5
Cumulative Score after Week 5 Results
NE
6587.56318
Pitt
5711.31595
Tenn
4995.18222
Was
4509.86333
Dall
4494.76833
Bal
4432.70056
Ind
4398.09146
Phi
4352.04978
Oak
3997.96048
Jax
3747.41619
NYG
3215.41455
SD
3145.22955
Arz
3112.155
Minn
2887.8875
Hou
2526.85541
Sea
2239.86056
TB
2045.37889
GB
1958.06543
NO
1934.08833
Chi
1892.92061
Den
1668.78364
Car
1359.93679
Cinn
1195.65
Atl
943.060238
KC
888.046429
Det
632.52
Mia
512.588571
Cleve
459.195031
SF
367.225161
NYJ
309.528889
StL
276.426667
Buff
133.534773
6587.56318
Pitt
5711.31595
Tenn
4995.18222
Was
4509.86333
Dall
4494.76833
Bal
4432.70056
Ind
4398.09146
Phi
4352.04978
Oak
3997.96048
Jax
3747.41619
NYG
3215.41455
SD
3145.22955
Arz
3112.155
Minn
2887.8875
Hou
2526.85541
Sea
2239.86056
TB
2045.37889
GB
1958.06543
NO
1934.08833
Chi
1892.92061
Den
1668.78364
Car
1359.93679
Cinn
1195.65
Atl
943.060238
KC
888.046429
Det
632.52
Mia
512.588571
Cleve
459.195031
SF
367.225161
NYJ
309.528889
StL
276.426667
Buff
133.534773
Week 5
Was ...........165490
Ind ............163521.1
Pitt ............156516.5
Jax ............134268.3
NYG .........122790.5
Bal ............116434
NE ............100222.9
Tenn ..........97913.78
NO .............93752.77
SD ..............93525.5
Phi .............87041
Oak ............79959.21
Arz .............72403.5
Dall ............67176.5
GB .............64206.71
Minn ..........57757.75
Mia ............43496
Hou ...........41622.77
StL ............37800.5
Chi ............32479.43
Cinn ..........23913
Buff ..........22902.5
Cleve ........13138.33
Atl ...........-6562.5
Car ..........-16645
NYJ ........-23076.7
Den.........-24395
KC .........-28098.8
SF .........-38016.2
Det .......-54566.7
Sea .......-55191.8
TB ........-84335
Ind ............163521.1
Pitt ............156516.5
Jax ............134268.3
NYG .........122790.5
Bal ............116434
NE ............100222.9
Tenn ..........97913.78
NO .............93752.77
SD ..............93525.5
Phi .............87041
Oak ............79959.21
Arz .............72403.5
Dall ............67176.5
GB .............64206.71
Minn ..........57757.75
Mia ............43496
Hou ...........41622.77
StL ............37800.5
Chi ............32479.43
Cinn ..........23913
Buff ..........22902.5
Cleve ........13138.33
Atl ...........-6562.5
Car ..........-16645
NYJ ........-23076.7
Den.........-24395
KC .........-28098.8
SF .........-38016.2
Det .......-54566.7
Sea .......-55191.8
TB ........-84335
Sunday, October 7, 2007
Cumulative Score after Week 4
NE
5585.33455
Pitt
4146.15095
Tenn
4016.04444
Dall
3823.00333
Phi
3481.63983
Bal
3268.36056
Oak
3198.36838
TB
2888.72889
Was
2854.96333
Sea
2791.77889
Ind
2762.88091
Jax
2404.73333
Arz
2388.12
Minn
2310.31
SD
2209.97455
Hou
2110.62768
NYG
1987.50955
Den
1912.73364
Chi
1568.12632
Car
1526.38679
GB
1315.99828
Det
1178.18667
KC
1169.03476
Atl
1008.68524
NO
996.560606
Cinn
956.52
SF
747.387003
NYJ
540.295556
Cleve
327.811698
Mia
77.6285714
Buff
-95.490227
StL
-101.57833
5585.33455
Pitt
4146.15095
Tenn
4016.04444
Dall
3823.00333
Phi
3481.63983
Bal
3268.36056
Oak
3198.36838
TB
2888.72889
Was
2854.96333
Sea
2791.77889
Ind
2762.88091
Jax
2404.73333
Arz
2388.12
Minn
2310.31
SD
2209.97455
Hou
2110.62768
NYG
1987.50955
Den
1912.73364
Chi
1568.12632
Car
1526.38679
GB
1315.99828
Det
1178.18667
KC
1169.03476
Atl
1008.68524
NO
996.560606
Cinn
956.52
SF
747.387003
NYJ
540.295556
Cleve
327.811698
Mia
77.6285714
Buff
-95.490227
StL
-101.57833
Week Four Results
Oak..........160534.9
Dall..........155179
TB...........143325.7
NE...........140770.5
Sea..........118730.1
NYG........107449.8
Ind..........105388
Tenn.......100401.1
Arz..........79606.17
Det..........77684.11
Was.........71374.08
SD...........67415.32
Atl...........63360.5
Bal...........61413.33
Jax..........60118.33
Chi..........54868
GB...........48266.17
Buff..........38638.23
Minn........38553
Phi...........37226.86
NYJ.........32776
Pitt..........31656
KC...........28158
NO..........24914.02
Den.........14430
Cleve......14170
Hou........13301.83
SF.........-3950.32
Car.......-29142.5
Cinn.....-41348.3
Mia......-43069.5
StL......-59469.5
Dall..........155179
TB...........143325.7
NE...........140770.5
Sea..........118730.1
NYG........107449.8
Ind..........105388
Tenn.......100401.1
Arz..........79606.17
Det..........77684.11
Was.........71374.08
SD...........67415.32
Atl...........63360.5
Bal...........61413.33
Jax..........60118.33
Chi..........54868
GB...........48266.17
Buff..........38638.23
Minn........38553
Phi...........37226.86
NYJ.........32776
Pitt..........31656
KC...........28158
NO..........24914.02
Den.........14430
Cleve......14170
Hou........13301.83
SF.........-3950.32
Car.......-29142.5
Cinn.....-41348.3
Mia......-43069.5
StL......-59469.5
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