Sunday, December 28, 2008

Who's Hot...


This time last year, the Football ERA had the New England Patriots and the New York Giants at one and two in the cumulative standings. This, of course, was a fortunate result given that the cumulative results are not much of an indicator as a Power Ranking system (see previous posts). However, it was clearly apparent that the Giants were dangerous due to their tremendous pass rush. Every week was like a Super Bowl game on their run to the title last year, and it took good fortune as well as their absolute best play to win out.


This season there are several teams in each conference that are going to be tough to beat in the playoffs. First of all, they have to all secure their playoff positions. In the AFC, the Pittsburgh Steelers can rush the passer but must run the ball better to dominate opponents if they are to make a run. They could easily be the team to beat in the AFC. The Tennessee Titans have to play solid without Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch at 100% on their defensive line. Whether this will be enough to get them by depends upon the matchups and gameday performance and fortune. The Baltimore Ravens can play with anyone--providing they get past Jacksonville this week. They will need to generate more of a pass rush to really control games on the scoreboard--which they havent more often than not this season, despite having a consistent and powerful rushing attack. I don't think anyone wants to face them in a playoff matchup as it takes a physical type of performance to get by the 2008 Ravens.



In the NFC, every game has been a playoff game down the stretch for the Dallas Cowboys. They couldn't get past the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday in what amounted to a regular season finale play-in Playoff. Philadelphia could be the team that gets really hot as their defense has been on a tear down the stretch led by their pass rush. However, the Giants match up with every team in the league. While the Giants were last year's cinderella, the Carolina Panthers rushing attack has helped their defense play at a higher level down the stretch. Offensive and Defensive play compliment each other and are more closely connected than what is commonly perceived sometimes.



The NFL Playoff system has always been a bit out of whack and antiquated in that the matchups dont always work out with the seeding system that they have which goes back to times when there were only four teams per conference in the playoffs. Sometimes the 2nd seed gets an easier road and better matchups than the 1st seed. We'll have to see how it all shakes out by the end of this last Sunday, but one of the aforementioned teams should be representing their conference by the time the 2008 Playoffs have set the table for this season's Super Bowl.

Friday, December 26, 2008

Week 16 Game By Game Results



Net Total Off=Rushing+Drives Def=Rushing+Pressure

NE … 2035.62 … 1044.75 = 573.75 + 471.00 … 990.87 = 658.75 + 332.12
Arz … -869.77 … -253.50 = 37.50 + -291.00 … -616.27 = -658.75 + 42.48

NO … 1594.82 … 992.55 = 575.25 + 417.30 … 602.27 = 411.88 + 190.39
Det … -578.04 … 18.70 = 178.50 + -159.80 … -596.74 = -411.88 + -184.87

StL … 1320.11 … 652.10 = 350.50 + 301.60 … 668.01 = 355.00 + 313.01
SF … -78.74 … 20.40 = 192.00 + -171.60 … -99.14 = -355.00 + 255.86

Car … 979.82 … 741.10 = 598.50 + 142.60 … 238.72 = 61.88 + 176.84
NYG … 224.41 … 350.15 = 295.25 + 54.90 … -125.74 = -61.88 + -63.86

Bal … 942.37 … 610.00 = 457.50 + 152.50 … 332.37 = 156.88 + 175.49
Dall … 371.12 … 147.50 = 157.50 + -10.00 … 223.62 = -156.88 + 380.49

Jax … 898.68 … 685.35 = 435.75 + 249.60 … 213.33 = 319.38 + -106.05
Ind … -54.76 … 29.65 = 21.75 + 7.90 … -84.41 = -319.38 + 234.97

Was … 888.04 … 454.80 = 315.50 + 139.30 … 433.24 = 221.88 + 211.37
Phi … 118.01 … 60.20 = 97.00 + -36.80 … 57.81 = -221.88 + 279.68

Mia … 847.84 … 524.75 = 303.75 + 221.00 … 323.09 = 42.50 + 280.59
KC … 246.76 … 419.00 = 435.00 + -16.00 … -172.24 = -42.50 + -129.74

Cinn … 842.53 … 445.90 = 370.00 + 75.90 … 396.63 = 131.88 + 264.76
Cleve … 104.93 … 326.60 = 305.00 + 21.60 … -221.68 = -131.88 + -89.80

Den … 826.13 … 685.45 = 416.75 + 268.70 … 140.68 = 126.25 + 14.43
Buff … 205.23 … 224.55 = 238.25 + -13.70 … -19.32 = -126.25 + 106.93

Sea … 811.20 … 356.45 = 285.25 + 71.20 … 454.75 = 126.88 + 327.87
NYJ … 197.36 … 316.05 = 244.75 + 71.30 … -118.69 = -126.88 + 8.18

Tenn … 805.98 … 376.80 = 373.50 + 3.30 … 429.18 = 60.00 + 369.18
Pitt … 334.09 … 281.95 = 115.25 + 166.70 … 52.14 = -60.00 + 112.14

Minn … 793.59 … 606.75 = 376.75 + 230.00 … 186.84 = 102.50 + 84.34
Atl … 478.77 … 325.75 = 335.75 + -10.00 … 153.02 = -102.50 + 255.52

GB … 717.17 … 385.95 = 204.25 + 181.70 … 331.22 = 18.13 + 313.09
Chi … 252.56 … 231.55 = 280.75 + -49.20 … 21.01 = -18.13 + 39.13

Oak … 649.42 … 323.55 = 241.25 + 82.30 … 325.87 = 46.25 + 279.62
Hou … 238.93 … 296.45 = 248.75 + 47.70 … -57.52 = -46.25 + -11.27

TB … 491.88 … 449.05 = 405.75 + 43.30 … 42.83 = 13.13 + 29.71
SD … 481.50 … 295.95 = 166.75 + 129.20 … 185.55 = -13.13 + 198.67

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Week 16 Cumulative Results


The reason why cumulative results are not to be viewed as a Power Rankings is evident as the 2008 seasons heads into the Playoffs. Teams like Carolina and Minnesota are showing evidence of development towards the end of the season. Their cumulative scores are rising, and they are making a final run to win their divisions. I run several spreadsheets looking for changes in how teams are rising and falling in the cumulative standings. First Derivative change is how we can distinguish emerging teams from those that are falling off at the end of the season. As teams that have developed their rushing attack over the course of the season emerge, we can see them rise in the rankings eventhough their cumulative score may be towards the bottom of the rankings. Its the changes in the rankings that are significant, and this reveals why these rankings are NOT to be viewed as a Power Ranking.

Bal … 16708.72896
Minn … 14067.48998
NYG … 13716.57861
NE … 13139.93898
Tenn … 13009.37576
Phi … 12668.91096
Atl … 12238.02474
Pitt … 11592.804
Dall … 11288.47919
Mia … 10914.58952
Car … 10467.24905
Was … 10415.64995
NO … 10099.74017
NYJ … 10088.48506
TB … 9418.271022
Jax … 8787.434226
Chi … 7834.034848
Hou … 7810.672128
GB … 7608.218474
Den … 7408.29358
Buff … 7200.609495
Arz … 6550.603089
SF … 5948.135802
SD … 5441.096871
Sea … 5160.089742
Ind … 3055.796057
Oak … 2201.72443
StL … 2033.85439
Cinn … 1842.933755
Cleve … 1598.239418
KC … 1294.943996
Det … -2332.772014


Thursday, December 18, 2008

Week 15 Game By Game Results




Net Total Off=Rushing+Drives Def=Rushing+Pressure

Minn … 1640.50 … 674.30 = 468.50 + 205.80 … 966.20 = 563.75 + 402.45
Arz … -479.90 … 16.95 = 67.75 + -50.80 … -496.85 = -563.75 + 66.90

Atl … 1200.28 … 518.65 = 434.75 + 83.90 … 681.63 = 268.75 + 412.88
TB … -35.81 … 226.35 = 195.25 + 31.10 … -262.16 = -268.75 + 6.59

NE … 1170.81 … 749.45 = 524.75 + 224.70 … 421.36 = 316.88 + 104.49
Oak … -74.34 … 169.30 = 191.50 + -22.20 … -243.64 = -316.88 + 73.24

Phi … 1099.74 … 606.50 = 264.00 + 342.50 … 493.24 = 270.63 + 222.61
Cleve…-220.43…-72.75 = 132.25 + -205.00…-147.68 = -270.63 + 122.94

Dall … 1012.82 … 306.60 = 237.00 + 69.60 … 706.22 = 93.75 + 612.47
NYG … 241.71 … 172.15 = 106.75 + 65.40 … 69.56 = -93.75 + 163.31

Ind … 841.35 … 667.95 = 380.75 + 287.20 … 173.40 = 198.75 + -25.35
Det … 86.83 … 183.30 = 245.50 + -62.20 … -96.47 = -198.75 + 102.28

KC … 841.02 … 446.05 = 302.75 + 143.30 … 394.97 = 165.00 + 229.97
SD … 27.90 … 248.95 = 217.25 + 31.70 … -221.05 = -165.00 + -56.05

Car … 825.34 … 472.25 = 363.25 + 109.00 … 353.09 = 116.88 + 236.22
Den … -3.92 … 186.50 = 153.00 + 33.50 … -190.43 = -116.88 + -73.55

StL … 813.86 … 518.85 = 338.25 + 180.60 … 295.01 = 100.63 + 194.39
Sea … 235.51 … 278.65 = 296.75 + -18.10 … -43.15 = -100.63 + 57.48

NO … 793.81 … 543.55 = 309.25 + 234.30 … 250.26 = 156.25 + 94.01
Chi … 172.68 … 168.95 = 243.25 + -74.30 … 3.73 = -156.25 + 159.98

SF … 788.95 … 626.10 = 239.50 + 386.60 … 162.85 = 166.88 + -4.02
Mia … 205.76 … 7.65 = 211.75 + -204.10 … 198.11 = -166.88 + 364.98

Hou … 747.35 … 538.40 = 247.50 + 290.90 … 208.95 = 164.38 + 44.58
Tenn … 237.12 … 84.10 = 242.50 + -158.40 … 153.02 = -164.38 + 317.39

Pitt … 622.00 … 386.35 = 224.75 + 161.60 … 235.65 = 51.25 + 184.40
Bal … 388.72 … 207.40 = 234.00 + -26.60 … 181.32 = -51.25 + 232.57

Jax … 602.67 … 368.40 = 328.00 + 40.40 … 234.27 = 56.25 + 178.02
GB … 312.61 … 259.10 = 154.50 + 104.60 … 53.51 = -56.25 + 109.76

Cinn … 589.17 … 468.35 = 335.25 + 133.10 … 120.82 = 49.38 + 71.44
Was … 477.73 … 295.40 = 256.00 + 39.40 … 182.33 = -49.38 + 231.70

Buff … 557.94 … 566.55 = 351.75 + 214.80 … -8.61 = 36.25 + -44.86
NYJ … 501.00 … 282.20 = 337.00 + -54.80 … 218.80 = -36.25 + 255.05