Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Week 4 Results



TB … 1358.59
SD … 1156.055
Cleve … 1117.265
NO … 1096.18
StL … 899.07
Phi … 837.1714706
Tenn … 826.0533333
Was … 820.6
Bal … 814.1566667
NYG … 773.8533824
Car … 741.685
Sea … 716.5467262
Arz … 702.06
KC … 653.3692857
Mia … 506.0570833
NYJ … 479.9727273
Buff … 451.26
Jax … 441.275
Hou … 356.28
Chi … 325.015
Pitt … 305.3764706
Minn … 252.7941176
NE … 251.2901389
Den … 215.58
Atl … 136.55
Oak … 94.04857143
Dall … 35.135
Ind … 4.083928571
SF … -72.49772727
Cinn … -153.295
Det … -189.8889583
GB … -400.7464286




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How Fast Things Change! ... Week 4 Cumulative Results


We have seen in recent seasons--especially since 2000--how fast teams develop (or regress) from week to week in today's NFL. Indianapolis and the New York Giants, recently, made Playoff runs by getting better and better each week while avoiding the injury bug. In fact, injuries contribute greatly to the flux we see every week in teams rising and falling on the various power rankings out there. The Football ERA helps to track these trends and generally reveals how hard and focused a team practices and prepares every week in its development. There has been so much flux in the past few seasons that we almost have to look at the long football season as a conglomeration of at least four different seasons---one for every month. Here is the cumulative scores from all the teams--including byes, of the results so far from the first month of the 2008 season. Keep in mind that one of my first posts last season cautions that this result, by no means, is a Power Ranking.



Bal … 5416.209167
Phi … 4147.636471
Tenn … 3966.461905
NYG … 3869.266912
Sea … 3582.733631
Dall … 3533.877857
TB … 2874.026491
Buff … 2783.854924
Was … 2744.627727
Atl … 2666.682619
Minn … 2631.142754
Arz … 2572.547727
Den … 2569.119048
Mia … 2530.285417
Chi … 2501.51273
SD … 2389.896667
NO … 2149.67197
Jax … 2081.646717
Pitt … 1993.69909
Car … 1961.693333
Oak … 1833.455238
SF … 1606.029773
NE … 1256.450694
NYJ … 1246.672013
GB … 1186.194405
KC … 541.9185714
Cleve … 350.71
Hou … 302.345
Ind … 20.41964286
StL … -439.3487302
Cinn … -478.9154902
Det … -949.4447917




With Baltimore, for example--despite the fact that the Ravens have played well, their score is a bit inflated as a result of beating up on opponents on an easy schedule and having benefited from an early bye in its early season calculations.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Seattle Bounces Back Against the Rams

Seattle has been up and down in its Football ERA rating, but finally got a win out of its efforts against the lowly Rams. Football is a bit of a whacky game in that the final outcome is often not dictated by the team that attempts to control the line of scrimmage--given things like turnover, red zone efficiency, broken plays, special teams and the like.



The Football ERA attempts to look beyond these factors and open field plays--that often determine the outcome of games--to bring a unique perspective to game analysis by viewing it from a different angle--one more centered around what happens in the trenches. Seattle's Football ERA ratings have not been as low as their win-loss record so far--particularly in Week 2 when they let the 49ers back into the game. They have made just enough mistakes to shoot themselves in the foot thus far this season before St Louis helped them begin to turnaround their early season woes.





Sea 1457.863333
StL -446.92













The St Louis Rams suffered from more adversity and injuries in 2007 than almost any other team in the league. Their starting lineup was in complete turmoil and had more changes week to week than any other team. Sometimes this adversity can serve to build depth on a team's roster by giving valuable experience to younger players on the depth chart. However, the Rams lineup has been anything but stable since 2007, and their performance thus far in 2008 has reflected this.
Seattle's lineup, in contrast, has benefited from much more continuity as they work to right their ship in the right direction while the season is still young. Here are the lineups that Seattle and St Louis have fielded so far in 2008 with changes from 2007 and/or previous weeks highlighted in Bold.




On Defense, all three starting linebackers from 2007 returned to the starting lineup for 2008. DT Brandon Mebane from California replaces the departed DT Chuck Darby--now playing for Detroit, while rookie DE Lawrence Jackson from USC replaces DE Darryl Tapp from the 2007 lineup. DT Craig Terrill started in place of suspended DT Rocky Bernard in Week 1, but Bernard returned to the lineup in Weeks 2 and 3.

On offense, Free-Agent Guard Mike Wahle was brought in from Carolina to replace the retired G Chris Gray while steady backup G Floyd Womack filled in for the injured G Rob Simsin Weeks 2 and 3. Also out of the lineup due to injury is Right Tackle Sean Locklear who has been replaced by T Ray Willis so far in 2008.

++++++++++Seattle Seahawks++++++++++

Defensive Fronts:


Leroy Hill Lofa Tatupu Julian Peterson


Patrick Kerney Brandon Mebane Rocky Bernard Lawrence Jackson(R)


Offensive Line:


Walter Jones Mike Wahle Chris Spencer Floyd Womack Ray Willis




+++++++++++St Louis Rams++++++++++

LB Brandon Chillar is now a Packer and has been replaced by the promising 2nd year LB Quinton Culberson. Top draft choice rookie DE Chris Long is starting in place of James Hall who was inserted in the lineup in Week 3 for the injured DE Leonard Little.
On offense, Guard Adam Goldberg played for injured former Titan free-agent acquisition Jacob Bell in Weeks 2 and 3. Bell had replaced Mark Setterstrom (who is on IR) from last season's lineup while C Nick Leckey won the starting center job from Brett Romberg.




Defensive Front:


Quinton Culberson Will Witherspoon Pisa Tinoisamoa


Chris Long(R) La'Roi Glover Adam Carriker James Hall





Offensive Line:


Orlando Pace Adam Goldberg Nick Leckey Richie Incognito Alex Barron


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Friday, September 26, 2008

Dominant Victory: Baltimore over Cleveland

The Football ERA calculated several dominant victories in Week 3. The formula is not meant to provide an authorative review of everything that occured during the game, but provides insight by looking at what happened in the trenches from a different angle than judging an outcome by the final score.



In this case, Baltimore mounted drive after drive but were not always fully successful in the red zone. Some of their drives ended in turnovers while others only produced field goals. The formula credits the Ravens for its dominating ball control performance, particularly in rushing the ball against a Cleveland defensive line that was missing DE Robaire Smith who was put on IR. He was replaced by Shaun Smith. Also LB Willie McGinnest was also out of the lineup against Baltimore, replaced by Alex Hall. Meanwhile, the offensive line was shuffled to compensate for the absence of Guard Eric Steinbach who was replaced by the veteran Seth McKinney.





Bal 1947.15
Cleve -611.7063636






















Net Total: Offensive Total= Off. Rushing + Off. Drives
Defensive Total=Def. Rushing + Def. Pressure


Offense Defense
Bal 1947.15--> 907.35= 568.75 + 338.6 1039.8= 526.87 + 512.92
Cleve -611.70--> -87.35= 93.75 + -181.1 -524.35= -526.875 + 2.51




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The Ravens return most of their starters from 2007 when they did some significant rebuilding on their offensive line which included adjustments for the loss of OT Tony Pashos to Jacksonville via free agency. Eventhough they have started the season without the significant contribution that they got last year from NT Kelly Gregg, they have made the adjustment with DT Justin Bannan replacing him in the lineup---in part because Bannan gained valuable experience in 2007 playing for injured starters.

The offensive line has been completely shuffled from 2007 with surprisingly positive results thus far--mainly because the 2008 starters played in many games last year while the Ravens were battling through injuries on their offensive line. Adversity can provide an opportunity for players to get experience for later productivity. Jared Gaither replaces the retired pro-bowler Jonathan Ogden but has been no slouch as he played frequently last year along with Ben Grubbs, Jason Brown (who is replacing the departed Mike Flynn at center), and Marshall Yanda. Chris Chester also started last year and will therefore provide valuable depth as a backup.

Here are the starting lineups for the Ravens and Browns with changes from 2007 and/or from last week highlighted in Bold.


++++++++++Baltimore Ravens++++++++++

Defensive Front:


Jarret Johnson Ray Lewis Bart Scott Terrell Suggs


Haloti Ngata Justin Bannan Trevor Pryce



Offensive Line:


Jared Gaither Ben Grubbs Jason Brown Marshall Yanda Adam Terry




++++++++++Cleveland Browns++++++++++

Defensive Front:


Alex Hall(R) Andra Davis D'Qwell Jackson Kamerion Wimbley


Corey Williams Shaun Rogers Shaun Smith







Offensive Line:


Joe Thomas Seth McKiney Hank Fraley Rex Hadnot Kevin Shaffer



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