Week Three Football ERA Game Results

	Net	Offensive	Offense	Offense	Defensive	Defense	Defense
	Total	Total	Rushing	Drives	Total	Rushing	Pressure
GB	1982	867	395	472	1114	711	403
Chi	-866	-263	53	-316	-603	-711	108
Bal	1718	802	370	432	916	221	694
StL	137	82	220	-138	55	-221	276
Oak	1678	886	733	154	792	239	553
NYJ	167	295	145	150	-128	-239	111
Phi	1568	882	628	255	686	476	210
NYG	22	334	290	44	-311	-476	165
TB	1497	723	520	203	774	306	468
Atl	-260	43	93	-49	-303	-306	3
Mia	1268	751	463	288	518	416	101
Cleve	351	116	205	-89	235	-416	651
Arz	1223	448	258	190	775	120	655
Sea	601	400	448	-47	201	-120	321
NO	1157	682	388	295	475	201	273
Hou	166	216	205	11	-51	-201	151
SD	1044	758	448	310	286	256	30
KC	-142	-27	160	-187	-116	-256	141
Pitt	1017	583	205	378	434	208	227
Ind	242	167	353	-186	75	-208	283
Minn	975	386	448	-61	589	68	521
Det	606	265	18	247	341	-68	408
SF	971	559	340	219	412	201	211
Cinn	534	133	278	-145	401	-201	602
NE	863	583	290	293	280	203	77
Buff	229	249	285	-36	-20	-203	182
Car	753	400	310	90	354	-19	373
Jax	588	470	395	75	118	19	99
Dall	726	353	280	73	373	-25	398
Was	575	258	180	78	317	25	292
Tenn	418	260	190	70	158	18	141
Den	385	299	235	64	87	-18	104

The Rambling Gambler, TRG: Pick 6 - Week 4

Last week was ugly and it didn't wait until the waning moments of the 4th quarter to crush my hopes like week 2 did. My 4 losses last week were all struggling the entire game, with none of them ever looking like a good bet to cover. It was pretty disappointing. SF and Baltimore did their jobs, but it's hard to ever be pleased with less than 50%. The majority of the lines are tight this week, suggesting that many people are having a hard time seeing a clear winner. The small spreads create opportunity, however, and I feel some wins coming this week! Here are the picks:

Detroit/Dallas OVER 46.5


I bet you didn't think I'd lead off with an over! While both of these teams rank well statistically against the pass (Detroit is 4th, Dallas 12th), I'm not convinced either team has a good secondary. Detroit has faced three passing-anemic teams (TB, KC, Minn). Dallas hasn't faced much better, going up against NYJ (though they let Sanchez post some big numbers), SF, and Washington. Both of these teams have very good quarterbacks, with Dallas ranked 3rd in passing offense, and Detroit tied for 4th. I'm fully expecting a shootout in this game and I think it'll be an easy over. Both of these secondaries are league-average at best, in my opinion. Dallas may be down Miles Austin, but they'll still be able to move the ball with Witten, Dez, and the rest. Detroit's 23 points were a season-low last week, but keep in mind they scored all 23 in the second half. That offense is explosive. Take this over with confidence.


New Orleans -7 over JACKSONVILLE


The offensive ineptitude of the Jaguars is staggering. Despite the fact that MJD is on pace for his best season in 5 years, they can't score any points. McCown has already been benched and Gabbert couldn't get anything done against the Panthers. Compare that to the Saints offense, who've scored 30+ points in each game so far, (though one TD in week 1 was a punt return), and I don't see how Jacksonville stays within 7. They've yet to top the 16 points they put up in week 1. The Saints may have cut it close against Houston, and Houston may have made their defense look less than imposing, but Houston actually has a decent offense. The Jaguars are getting good and cozy down in that cellar and I don't think they're coming out anytime soon.

Atlanta -4 over SEATTLE


I can't stay away. I probably bet against Seattle more than any other team, but I'm patting myself on the back for avoiding them last week, since they actually managed to cover a game. I'm not willing to give up on Atlanta for some reason, either. Maybe playing in a dome will help them this week. The Falcons o-line has been struggling to protect Matt Ryan, but Seattle is ranked in the bottom half of the NFL with 5 total sacks through the first 3 games (5-way tie for 23rd). The Seahawks defense is performing above expectations, but the offense has been dismal, scoring 17, 0, and 13 so far this year. The Falcons may be 1-2, but they've lost to good teams in Chicago and Tampa Bay. Coming back to beat Philly was a noteworthy achievement as well. They may have burned me last week, but I've got to stick with the more talented team here. They can definitely win by more than 4.


BALTIMORE -3 over New York Jets


I mentioned briefly in my lead-in last week that I thought the Raiders had a shot to go to 3-0 ATS against the Jets and they won outright. New York was gashed for 234 yards on the ground, the most ever during the Rex Ryan era. Mark Sanchez still looks like Mark Sanchez, and for those that don't know, Mark Sanchez does not look like a good QB. Baltimore really laid an egg against Tennessee, but they've won easily against Pittsburgh and St. Louis. With Nick Mangold (C) still likely to be out this week, it's hard to see the Jets ground game improving. The offense isn't built to throw the ball as much as they have in their past two games, and it's shown. With the Ravens experiencing success on both sides of the ball, I can't pass them up to win by a field goal. The Jets D will have to save the day for the Jets to cover, but after Oakland laid down the blueprint last week, I'm looking for the Ravens to exploit the same weaknesses.

New England/Oakland OVER 54


Despite this being the high over of the week, I like it. The totals in the first 3 Patriots games have all been over 54. The Raiders-Jets game went over 54 last week as well, and that was in a game where Oakland ran for over 200 yards. Neither defense is playing well... New England's is obviously bad and while the Raiders haven't been quite as terrible, they did give up 350+ passing yards to Sanchez last week. It's not unrealistic whatsoever to think Brady can approach or exceed 400 yards again. Furthermore, Bill Belichick isn't exactly the most conservative coach when he has a lead, which always makes it easier to bet on the overs in Pats games... The Patriots usually don't take their foot off the gas until the game is well into the 4th quarter. Again, I actually think Oakland has a shot of pulling the upset, but I don't feel like tempting fate and picking them this week. The over seems much safer to me.


Buffalo -3 over CINCINNATI

Why not? The Bills are on top of the world after toppling the Patriots, but a lot of people are calling this a trap game. Buffalo is definitely over-achieving right now, so I understand the sentiment and growing fear that they're going to drop a game; they will, eventually. I just don't think the Bengals are going to be the team to knock the Bills from the ranks of the undefeated. The offensive discrepancy is huge... The Bills are 3rd overall through 3 games, while the Bengals are 25th. The discrepancy in defensive rankings is almost the exact opposite, with the Bengals 3rd and Bills 26th, but I'm not buying the Bengals D... They've faced Denver, Cleveland, and SF. Buffalo is an offensive juggernaut by comparison. Cincinnati took some hits in free agency, biggest loss being CB Jonathan Joseph, and Buffalo will exploit that. The passing game is on fire right now. It may be hard to envision the Bills at 4-0, but I think they'll last one more week without losing, so I'm willing to give a field goal.


TRG
@ELaurinovics

The Rambling Gambler, TRG: Week 3 Recap

Week 3 brought no shortage of upsets, with most all of the big favorites failing to cover the spread. I thought San Diego might blow it (nothing new for them), but I really wasn't expecting Pittsburgh to struggle so much against Indy. For all of the experts saying that the offensive line is the problem, the Steelers has just as many health issues on the line last year and did just fine. It was another tough week, and the tight spreads to open week 4 are an indicator of how tough this season is getting early on. Last week was no exception, unfortunately... Here's the recap:

LOSSES


Pittsburgh -11 over Indy: Well what the heck was that, Pittsburgh? Like I said earlier, the offensive line was plenty banged up last year and they were fine. Monday's performance is definitely concerning, and going on the road to Houston is a good reason to lay off and see if they pull themselves together. Or you can bet Houston, if you're feeling adventurous.

San Diego -14 over KC: I have to admit, I was somewhat concerned about the San Diego choke factor for this spread, but KC played so poorly the first two weeks I though the Chargers might cover. Aside from Ryan Mathews, the offense was miserable. Everyone was off. The Chargers have the reputation of starting slow for a reason.

Atlanta 0 over Tampa Bay: I really thought Atlanta was going to win this game, I really did. I was very surprised to see them shut out for the majority of the game. The offensive line lost Harvey Dahl (G) to free agency, but I didn't think they'd be that bad. Matt Ryan is looking a little too much like Jay Cutler, for my taste. Still going to try again on the Falcons this week, though... They can handle Seattle. Right?

Tennessee -7 over Denver: Chris Johnson must be getting something close to $100,000 a yard or so at this point. It's mind boggling that he's had such a terrible 3 game stretch and couldn't even get it going against Denver's soft run defense. Combine that with the loss of Kenny Britt, and the Titans all of the sudden look like they're in trouble. On offense, at least. The defense performed well.


WINS

Baltimore -4 over St. Louis: Well, at least I got one of my top picks. This line blew up to -6 on Sunday morning, so the money knew something. Flacco looked great, the defense looked great, and the Rams looked miserable. The Rams are definitely one of the top 5 most disappointing teams so far this year. Baltimore looks like a pretty good bet to cover against sub-par opponents this year (Tennessee game notwithstanding).

San Francisco +2 over Cincy: This was definitely the ugly game of the week, and also the first 13-8 game in NFL history. The Niners defense played well yet again, and the Bengals couldn't do much of anything. The Niners offense still looks like one of the worst in football, but luckily for them, one TD and a couple of field goals were enough.

2011 Stats


Total Record: 7-10-1


Games: 7-8-1
Over/Under: 0-2-0
Home Teams: 3-3-0
Road Teams: 4-5-1
Favorites: 5-5-1
Dogs: 2-2-0




TRG